Covid, a "zoned" system, avoided 25,000 hospitalizations last November

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02 August 2021 The anti-contagion measures introduced last autumn with the Dpcm of 3 November 2020 to mitigate the Covid-19 epidemic in Italy have made it possible to reduce the transmissibility (Rt) of Sars-Cov-2 by 13-19% in the yellow zone , 27-38% in the orange area and 36-45% in the red area. 

The yellow, orange or red "zoned" regional restrictions brought the epidemic under control in 85 out of 107 provinces within 3 weeks of their introduction, avoiding a total of approximately 25,000 hospitalizations in the same period, or more than half of the 44,000 carried out. 

It is the result of a study by Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Istituto Superiore di Sanità and Inail published in Nature communications. 

The positive effects on the reduction of hospitalizations, we read in a joint note of the institutes that announce the results of the study, however, are even more significant if observed over longer times, by virtue of the reduction in the incidence of infection obtained with the measures .

The study also found that even the most restrictive of zones produced significantly lower reductions in social activities than the spring 2020 lockdown.

For example, compared to an average time spent at home by Italians of about 16 hours a day in pre-pandemic times (Istat data), in the red areas it was estimated a time of 18.7 hours a day compared to about 20.3 during the lockdown. . The study showed that the yellow area was effective in stabilizing the incidence of cases, bringing the Rt to values ​​around 1, while the orange and red areas produced a substantial reduction in incidence by lowering the Rt to values ​​between 0.80 and 0.93 (orange zone) and between 0.74 and 0.83 (red zone). For the research, data from integrated surveillance and data on public mobility were used, elaborated with mathematical models to quantify the association between the measures and the change in r (t) between the week 30 October-5 November, before 'introduction of the "zones", and that of November 19-25, when the effect can be considered stabilized.