In Uzbekistan, at the Termez mountain range near the border with Afghanistan, joint Russian-Uzbek exercises have begun.

This was reported in the Central Military District (CVD).

The exercises are taking place in the Surkhandarya region, bordering Afghanistan, and will last until August 10.

The servicemen of the two countries as part of a joint military group will work out the issues of ensuring the territorial integrity of the states of the Central Asian region.

About 1.5 thousand servicemen of the Armed Forces of Russia and Uzbekistan are taking part in the exercises.

The maneuvers will involve about 200 units of military equipment, including aviation - a link of assault aircraft from the Russian Kant airbase in Kyrgyzstan.

The Kant airbase is an aviation component of the Collective Rapid Deployment Forces of the CSTO.

It hosts Su-25 attack aircraft and Mi-8MTV helicopters.

The Central Military District reported that Russia at the same time increased the number of its military contingent in the trilateral exercises of Russia, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, which will be held from 5 to 10 August at the Tajik Harb-Maidon training ground, 20 km from the border with Afghanistan.

“In accordance with the decision of the commander of the troops of the Central Military District, Colonel-General Alexander Lapin, the number of the Russian military contingent has been increased to participate in joint exercises of units of the armed forces of Russia, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan.

The number of personnel has been increased to 1.8 thousand servicemen, and the number of military and special equipment involved in joint exercises has also doubled - to 420 units, ”the press service of the Central Military District said.

The Central Military District clarified that a total of more than 2.5 thousand military and about 500 units of weapons and military equipment from three countries will take part in joint actions.

The core of the Russian military contingent will be the units of the 201st military base, including mountain motorized rifle, tank, and artillery units.

Also, from the Central Military District, units of a separate special-purpose compound, specialists from the EW and RCB protection units will be involved in the exercise.

Earlier, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu at a meeting of the defense ministers of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in Dushanbe said that these exercises "in order to respond to the aggravation of the situation in Afghanistan" will work out "practical actions to inflict fire damage and destroy bandit formations, conduct aerial reconnaissance and strengthen protection of important objects ".

Situation in Afghanistan

Recall that the joint exercises of Russia, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan are taking place against the background of an aggravated stop in Afghanistan, which borders the Central Asian republics.

The situation was destabilized due to the hasty withdrawal of US and NATO troops from this country.

Earlier, US President Joe Biden ordered the withdrawal of American forces by September 11, 2021 - the 20th anniversary of the terrorist attacks in New York, which served as one of the reasons for the US intervention in Afghanistan.

The accelerated withdrawal of the international coalition troops from Afghanistan provoked the activation of the Taliban * movement, which launched a large-scale offensive against the positions of government forces.

The movement's militants managed to occupy significant positions in the rural areas of the country.

On July 22, a spokesman for the Zabiullah Mujahid movement said that more than 90% of the country's borders are under the control of the movement.

The media report that at the moment the militants of the movement are fighting with government security forces in the cities of Lashkar Gah (the capital of the southern province of Helmand), Kandahar (the second most populous city in the country) and Herat (the center of the province of the same name and the third largest city in the country) in the south and west of Afghanistan.

These administrative centers are of strategic importance - the roads connecting Kandahar, Herat and agricultural regions in southern Afghanistan pass through Lashkar Gah.

To repel the siege of the Taliban, Afghan special forces were deployed to Lashkar.

On August 2, a spokesman for the country's Defense Ministry, Fawad Aman, said that government security forces had succeeded in repelling a Taliban attack on a prison in Lashkar Gah and eliminating almost all of the attackers.

On the eve of the ex-head of the CIA and the commander of international forces in Afghanistan in 2010-2011, David Petraeus, said that the withdrawal of American troops from this country would lead to a bloody civil war.

“In the worst case scenario, we face a bloody, brutal civil war similar to the one in the 1990s, when the Taliban took over,” Petraeus said.

According to Petraeus, if this happens, then we should expect the strengthening of al-Qaeda in Afghanistan **, as well as a significant outflow of refugees to neighboring countries.

  • An Afghan National Army (ANA) soldier is on duty at a checkpoint on the outskirts of Jalalabad.

  • © REUTERS / Parwiz

The responsibility for the current situation in Central Asia rests entirely with Washington, said Alexander Mikhailov, head of the Bureau of Military-Political Analysis, in an interview with RT.

“The hasty US withdrawal from Afghanistan has severely undermined the security architecture in the region.

There is a risk that hostilities on the territory of Afghanistan could spill over to the territory of Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, and from there to the Russian borders.

Russia needs to be ready for any provocations, ”the expert emphasized.

Possible scenarios

Earlier, the Russian president's special envoy for Afghanistan, Zamir Kabulov, said that Russia was ready for the scenario of a complete seizure of power in the country by the Taliban, but so far this option is considered unrealistic.

“We do not think that such a scenario will work, but we are ready for any development,” Kabulov said.

Zamir Kabulov also noted that Moscow is worried about the possibility of strengthening the "Islamic State" *** against the background of an armed conflict between the country's government and the Taliban.

  • On the territory of the 201st Gatchina twice Red Banner military base

  • RIA News

  • © Sergey Guneev

“The multivariate development of events remains, and we are primarily concerned about the possible prospect that ISIS and similar international terrorist groups will take advantage of the chaos that has arisen to strengthen their positions in northern Afghanistan to damage the security and stability of Central Asian states,” the diplomat emphasized.

According to him, Russia is primarily seeking to establish an inter-Afghan dialogue between the government in Kauble and the Taliban.

Alexander Mikhailov believes that the possibility of a complete seizure of power in Afghanistan by the Taliban should not be ruled out.

“In this case, a complete transfer of power to the Taliban regime is not ruled out, as well as a sharp activation of ISIS militants or other terrorist structures operating in Afghanistan.

With the support of some additional actors that influence the situation in Afghanistan, this could negatively affect the security of the countries adjacent to the Afghan border.

However, Russia has the ability to stop the situation in the event of such an unfavorable scenario, ”the expert explained.

In turn, the deputy director of the Institute of History and Politics of the Moscow State Pedagogical University, Vladimir Shapovalov, in an interview with RT, stressed that by conducting joint exercises with Uzbekistan and Tajikistan on the Afghan border, Russia thereby fulfills its obligations within the framework of the CSTO.

“In this situation, the conduct of unscheduled exercises, as well as the expansion of the military presence in Tajikistan on the part of Russia is a necessary preventive step, which should demonstrate the seriousness of its intentions to defend the territorial integrity of the borders of the CSTO member states.

This is a powerful signal that the Russian Federation and its allies send to the opposing forces in Afghanistan, including the Taliban, ”said the political scientist.

The situation that is being formed in Afghanistan today serves as a fertile ground for strengthening the positions of terrorist organizations, added Vladimir Shapovalov.

“The vacuum that arose after the withdrawal of the United States and its allies and the sharp escalation of the conflict with the participation of government forces and armed groups of the Taliban movement, militias of different communities, creates a window of opportunity for terrorists.

So far they do not control significant territories, but later they can build up their potential, after which they will dominate many territories of Afghanistan, "the interlocutor of RT explained.

Russia does not intend to interfere in the internal affairs of Afghanistan, leaving its people to independently decide on their fate, but at the same time Moscow will not allow violating the borders of neighboring states that are its allies, Vladimir Shapovalov added.

“To protect the borders of the CSTO members, all necessary and sufficient measures, both military and political, will be taken in this situation.

Russia has the ability to stop the situation in Central Asia in the event of an unfavorable scenario, it has demonstrated this within the framework of the Syrian conflict, ”the political scientist concluded.

* "Taliban" - the organization was recognized as terrorist by the decision of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation of February 14, 2003.

** "Al-Qaeda" - the organization was recognized as terrorist by the decision of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation dated 02.14.2003.

*** "Islamic State" (IS, ISIS) - the organization was recognized as terrorist by the decision of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation of December 29, 2014.