One does not have to dive into antiquity to understand that the rise of one state to a great power in competition with another brings with it tensions and conflicts.
Today this is the case in China.
There is evidence of this almost every day.
They are often of a rhetorical nature, but as such are as illuminating as they are alarming.
The Chinese leadership is reacting increasingly irritated that the United States, NATO, the EU and Asia-Pacific countries are not standing idly by the geo-economic expansionism and territorial expansion.
Beijing's human rights violations, the submission of Hong Kong and the de-liberalization of China have sharpened many people's sense of who they are ultimately dealing with: a state capitalist dictatorship under the supervision of the Communist Party and its leader Xi Jinping.
The question arises whether a clash between this dictatorship, which believes it is in the fast lane of world history, and the western world of states is inevitable.
The dangerous decade
Former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, who knows China, has predicted that America-China relations will be dangerous in this decade. Tensions would increase and competition would intensify. That is inevitable. But war is not inevitable. The fact that it does not necessarily have to lead to a military conflict discharge gives politicians scope for rational action. But the fact that the possibility of war is being discussed at all and that military threats and attempts at intimidation are increasing shows the explosiveness of the development; just dangerous.
There has been talk of a new cold war for some time.
So far it has often been claimed that, unlike in the “real” Cold War, there is no ideological superstructure today.
But is that true?
A basic political issue cannot be overlooked: it is the conflict between autocracy and democracy.
And that China does not strive for dominance does not correspond to reality.
The communists are pursuing their expansion strategy in a sometimes aggressive manner.
Another Cold War?
If one sticks to the linguistic image of the new cold war in order to describe the intensity of the systemic conflict, there is one essential difference compared to the 20th century: China is integrated into the world economy to a degree that the Soviet Union is not Most distant was. Western countries are closely intertwined with the Chinese market, despite all the decoupling noises and all mistrust. China is the EU's largest trading partner. For Germany it is one of the most important export markets; Japan, Korea and Australia conduct a large part of their foreign trade with him - the interdependence is closer and broader than that of Germany, which is accused of narrow-minded commercial orientation. Even the United States gets just under twenty percent of its imports from China.The trade war instigated by Donald Trump was a failure to the detriment of American consumers and businesses.
Globalization, transnational production and supply chains as well as the dependence of the prosperity of many Western countries on China counteract a broad decoupling. They are also, for the time being, facts that will dampen the heat of the Cold War. Whether or not it stays that way is ultimately decided by Taiwan, where Beijing's nationalism and will to submit to geo-economic interests and realities intersect: Taiwan has a key position in the manufacture of microchips. If there were to be a military conflict, it would be devastating for the world economy, which is based on the division of labor.
In the West today, China is generally seen as a partner and a competitor;
The less reticent add system rivals, which emphasizes the fundamentals of the competition.
To be honest, one more characteristic should be added: China as an enemy who is aggressively opposing Western interests.
The policy towards China must therefore have a strategic basis, but should be sufficiently differentiated depending on the topic.
Cooperation field climate protection
One of the most pressing issues on the global agenda is climate change.
In order to contain it halfway successfully, international cooperation is essential.
China is a partner in this field and its cooperation is essential.
So there are sectors of cooperation;
they can help keep tensions in relation to China manageable.
Western countries should approach China with self-confidence, uphold their values and pursue their interests no less courageously - within a framework that is based on rules and not on power. In any case, it should be possible to come to an agreement with China on the rules of a competition that will be carried out in many fields. Both sides need a railing to hold on to.