Academic: Kais Saied's coup could lead to the exit of the Tunisian army from the shadows

A writer on the British Middle East Eye website says that Tunisian President Kais Saied's involvement of the army and police in his "coup" may cause them to have a bigger role in the coming days.

Author Shadi Ibrahim, associate researcher at the Center for Islam and Global Affairs (CIGA) at Sabah Al-Din Zaim University in Istanbul, began

by listing a historical background on the behavior of former Tunisian President Habib Bourguiba, since the attempted military coup against him in 1962.

He said that Bourguiba worked to change the doctrine of the Tunisian army and distance it from the culture of "the armies of the south of the world", by sending army officers to train at Western military colleges instead of military colleges in the Middle East, adding that Bourguiba saw the friendship of the Western axis as a guarantee of Tunisia's national security.

After Zine El Abidine Ben Ali took power, the writer says, he was afraid that the army would carry out a coup against him, so he arrested and tortured dozens of officers and soldiers, before they were all acquitted years later, but at that time, his steps strengthened his authority.

Different from the Egyptian and Algerian army

The writer believes that all this history had a role in limiting the activity of the Tunisian army in public affairs, which made the model of civil-military relations for the country completely different from the models of Egypt or Algeria, in addition to the fact that there are no articles in the Tunisian constitution assigning the army any tasks related to political affairs .

He pointed out that the Tunisian army has not historically participated in the suppression of popular demonstrations by force, pointing to 3 events that confirm the army's tolerance of popular protests: In 1984, during the "bread uprising" demonstrations, orders were issued to suppress the demonstrations, but while the police suppressed them, the army retreated .

During the Tunisian revolution, it was reported that Ben Ali gave orders to the army to bomb the Kasserine neighborhood to quell the demonstrations, but the army refused, and finally, in May 2017, when demonstrators went out in Tataouine against the deteriorating economy, stormed the oil pumping station, cut off roads and burned police facilities, an order President Beji Caid Essebsi used force against the demonstrators, but the army refused, and instead only secured the facilities.

Escalation possibility

Today, Ibrahim says, the "coup" of Kais Saied in Tunisia can be described as a constitutional coup, and it may turn into a bloody escalation later, if the Ennahda movement decides to confront or pressure regional powers in this direction.

Said's decision to involve the army and police in his movement may lead to a political role for the army and police in the coming days and months.

The writer concluded his article by saying that the support from some Arab countries for Said’s measures is a dangerous indicator that the Tunisian people and the forces of change must pay attention to, “it is, of course, an alliance not in favor of reform and revolution, but quite the opposite, and if there is no pressure on Said from the Tunisian forces to adhere to a plan Obviously, we should not be surprised if the situation deteriorates, with police and security forces cracking down on the pretext of fighting terrorism or stabilizing the state.