Paris (AFP)

The French economy returned to growth in the second quarter, with a 0.9% increase in gross domestic product (GDP), which bodes well for reaching the 6% growth target by the government this year despite concerns over the fourth wave of the epidemic.

In the spring, the economy was first slowed down by the third lockdown but activity picked up sharply with the gradual lifting of health restrictions from mid-May.

This first estimate published on Friday by INSEE is slightly higher than the + 0.7% that the Statistical Institute was anticipating.

The Banque de France was counting on a rebound of 1%.

GDP "is approaching its pre-crisis level," said the National Institute of Statistics, since it is only 3.3% below its level in the fourth quarter of 2019.

"It is an exceptional performance of the French economy", in a period marked by a month of confinement, welcomed the Minister of the Economy, Bruno Le Maire, on France inter.

This thus reinforces the forecast of INSEE, as of the government, of seeing growth reach 6% this year, one of the highest in the euro zone, and the French economy return to its pre-crisis level by the end of 2021. , after a record 8% recession last year.

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France "is still a few points behind (compared to the pre-crisis) but we are going faster than expected and that will allow us to now quickly engage the third phase of our economic strategy", with the future plan of investment, insisted Bruno Le Maire.

All the more so as INSEE slightly revised upwards the evolution of GDP in the first quarter, now estimated to be stable, and not down 0.1%, as indicated at the end of May.

INSEE does not comment at this stage on the potential impact of the fourth wave of the epidemic that France is experiencing this summer due to the spread of the Delta variant.

But in early July, he considered that even in the event of a resurgence of the epidemic, the deployment of vaccination could prevent the imposition of restrictions too restrictive for the economy.

This is also supported by the government, Bruno Le Maire having estimated in a recent interview with the Journal du dimanche that "the health pass should not affect the turnover of the sectors concerned", which continue to be helped by the solidarity fund this summer in case of need.

However, a meeting is scheduled for August 30 with professionals in culture, tourism, etc., to take stock of possible losses of activity this summer.

- "Revenge of services" -

In the meantime, in the second quarter, consumption accelerated (+ 0.9% after + 0.2% in the first quarter), in particular for accommodation and food services and transport services, due to the reopening of bars and restaurants and resumption of travel.

However, consumption remains "well below its pre-crisis level", specifies INSEE, having been further penalized by the closures of so-called non-essential shops, which have reduced purchases of manufactured goods.

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"This is the revenge of services," says Selin Ozyurt, economist at credit insurer Euler Hermes, who, however, expected growth above 1% in the second quarter.

Business investment also accelerated sharply (+ 1.1% after + 0.4%), in particular in construction and services, thus "largely" exceeding its pre-crisis level, an encouraging element in the medium term. -term on the continuation of the economic recovery.

On the production side, the activity of market services has accelerated sharply, in particular in the hotel and restaurant industry.

Production of goods has rebounded, while construction continues to recover.

But the catching up of the manufacturing industry is "more moderate", notes INSEE.

"It may be related to the problems of value chains, sea freight, which ultimately weighed on our industry," said Selin Ozyurt.

Foreign trade continued to weigh on growth, with imports still growing faster than exports.

© 2021 AFP