Carthage's soft coup.. Did Qais Saeed write the death certificate of democracy in Tunisia?

Perhaps the most pessimistic about the political situation in Tunisia did not expect that the country's political crisis would devolve into the scenario that occurred on the night of July 26. In a repetition of the scene that Egypt witnessed in mid-2013, and in conjunction with demonstrations calling for the overthrow of the government and parliament, which included violent attacks on the headquarters of the Ennahda movement, the largest bloc in the Tunisian parliament, Tunisian President Kais Saied went out on television surrounded by a group of security and military leaders in the Carthage Palace, to announce A "soft coup" that included freezing the parliament's work, lifting the immunity of its deputies, and dismissing Prime Minister Hisham al-Mashishi, provided that the president himself assumes the executive authority in cooperation with a prime minister appointed by him and not Parliament as stipulated by the constitution, as well as announcing his presidency of the Public Prosecution on the pretext of "following up on files affecting security country".

In a scene that seems to come from the times of ancient coups, Saeed did not miss the opportunity to warn his opponents that "whoever will fire a single shot in the context of objecting to these decisions will face a barrage of bullets from the armed and security forces that are not limited," stressing that these decisions were necessary at a time when Tunisia "is at the most dangerous stage in its history, and is witnessing the tampering of the state, its capabilities and its money."

On the other hand, Tunisian Parliament Speaker Rached Ghannouchi rejected Said's decisions, describing them as a coup against the revolution and the constitution, calling on the people to demonstrate to protect the revolution and the elected institutions. authorities and considered himself the head of the executive branch (the government) and the first judge.”

The Tunisian president claimed in his speech that his exceptional decisions did not exceed the constitutional legitimacy and the powers granted to him by the constitution as president of the country. In this regard, the Tunisian President seems to be referring to Article 80 of the Constitution, regarding exceptional measures, which states that “the President of the Republic, in a state of imminent danger threatening the country’s integrity and the country’s security and independence, makes it impossible for the normal functioning of the state’s wheels to take the measures necessitated by that situation.” After consulting the Prime Minister, the Speaker of the Parliament, and informing the President of the Constitutional Court, the measures are announced in a statement to the people.

Saeed indicated in his speech that he had consulted Parliament Speaker Rashid Ghannouchi regarding the activation of the exceptional measures, but Ghannouchi denied these allegations, while no statements were made in this regard by Prime Minister Hisham al-Mashishi, who is believed to be detained in the Carthage Palace. While the reactions to the controversial decisions of Qais Saeed continue, the Jasmine Country faces a cloudy political horizon, and real fears of the end of the faltering democratic experiment in the country, and the return of the first strongholds of the Arab Spring officially to the eras of authoritarianism before 2010.

The current political crisis in Tunisia has its roots in 2019, which saw presidential elections that landed Kais Saied, a 61-year-old constitutional law professor, at Carthage Palace. In October of the same year, the Islamist Ennahda party, the largest in parliament, tried to pass the government of Habib Jemli and did not succeed in that, to surface differences between the two positions of political weight in Tunisia, the "parliament" headed by the Ennahda party, and the "presidency" Represented by Qais Saeed, disagreements that foreshadowed a raging struggle to determine the influence of institutions in the fledgling democracy.

The ball returned to Qais Saeed's court to choose an alternative to Habib Jemli in order to form the government, which created a political climate in which debates over the issue of powers in particular aggravated. However, these interactions were not new in any case, as Tunisia witnessed them repeatedly after its revolution in 2011. The issue of controlling the powers of the three presidencies was often raised; The Presidency of the Majlis (Parliament), the Presidency of the Government, and the Presidency of the Republic.

For example, the period of the late President Beji Caid Essebsi witnessed a struggle of this kind, and his presidency was considered a political stage in which pro-old regime figures and parties returned to the fore in 2014 a few years after the overthrow of the regime. Under the government of Habib Essid, which was granted the confidence of Parliament in February 2015, something like a coup took place against the semi-parliamentary system due to some attempts to convert it towards a presidential system. The crisis quickly worsened with the arrival of the government of Youssef Chahed, when Chahed wanted to take his powers away from the head of state to enter into a confrontation with the Tunisian president himself.

The crisis of powers reappeared in a more violent manner with the government of Hisham al-Mashishi, which was sworn in in September 2020. While the Ennahda movement wanted to appoint a prime minister loyal to the parliamentary majority, the Tunisian president wanted a prime minister loyal to him. In other words, while Ennahda supported granting more powers to the government, and thus parliament, the Tunisian president wanted to establish a presidential system instead of the current mixed system that places most powers in the hands of the prime minister appointed by the ruling coalition.

The most prominent clash occurred in mid-January, when Qais Saeed refused to ratify a cabinet reshuffle proposed by Al-Mashishi and approved by the Tunisian Parliament, refusing to invite the new ministers to take the constitutional oath before him, considering that the amendment was marred by "violations", which Al-Mashishi did not accept. .

Simultaneously, Saeed's statements that his powers as commander in chief of the armed forces also include the internal security forces, and not only the army, caused him to escalate his dispute with the Meshishi government over powers.

Hisham Al-Mashishi

Since the outbreak of the crisis, there have been many initiatives seeking to ease the tension and get out of the dispute over the powers between the president and the prime minister, Hisham al-Mashishi. The first of these was the calm and mediation initiative between the political parties, which was carried out by the "Tunisian General Labor Union", the largest trade union organization in Tunisia. The union launched the "National Dialogue" initiative in early December in order to get out of the economic and social crises in the country, and one of the most important Its provisions establish a "body of wise men led by independent national figures to get out of the crisis."

However, the initiative passed unnoticed by everyone without the desired effect. Last March, the Tunisian president surprised his people with his proposal to organize a national dialogue with the broad participation of young people, in order to crystallize proposals and demands that proceed from the local level towards the national, a proposal considered by the political elite as a circumvention. On the dialogue initiative presented by the Labor Union, and an attempt by Qais Saeed to prolong the crisis, embarrass his rivals in power, and monopolize the political process.

About a month later, another surprise came to the Tunisians, with a number of retired officers from the Tunisian army putting forward a political initiative in the name of "The Last Hope." The estrangement page, the restoration of normal contacts between the three presidencies and the examination of the stakes and requirements of the stage. The officers also suggested to the president “to deliver a synthesis speech in the House of Representatives attended by all political parties, followed by an immediate cessation of all campaigns of exchanging violence and distortion, respecting the political parties, and the commitment of all to postpone engaging in contentious political issues until the Corona epidemic is eliminated and the specter of bankruptcy is removed.” . Of course, this initiative caused widespread controversy in Tunisia due to the sensitivity of Tunisian society to the interference of military leaders in political affairs.

In mid-June, the Tunisian president surprised everyone again by calling for a dialogue to agree on a new political system and amend the 2014 constitution - which emanated from the National Constituent Assembly - which he said was full of locks and obstacles. But the call that appeared as a gesture towards a solution backfired and brought the crisis back to ground zero, as it was clear from Qais Saeed’s words that he was paving the way for changing the constitution and amending the country’s political system after he questioned the national dialogue that took place in 2013, describing it as “it was not a dialogue and did not He was never patriotic."

With the protracted crisis in Tunisia, calls began to surface demanding the exclusion of those with escalating differences, on top of which a group of political parties, organizations, associations and national figures announced the formation of a "referendum front" in order to change the political and electoral system in the country. This group believes that in order to remedy the situation there is a need to organize a popular referendum in which the Tunisian people will be asked about the type of political system to be followed, given that the people are the "original authority holder" in the end. The initiative’s owners affirmed during a press conference on June 28 that “there is a united front that will be open to all Tunisians, national figures, and all components of civil and political society, and its goal is a people’s referendum on the political system, whether presidential or parliamentary, and on the electoral system, whether relative or absolute, in Two sessions."

But there are those who went beyond the referendum on the political system by calling for early legislative and presidential elections as a way out of the crisis. Former President Moncef Marzouki topped the list of political figures who demanded the necessity of holding early presidential and legislative elections to ensure a solution to the political and constitutional crisis in which they are living. country.

Although both the Tunisian President and the Ennahda Party have expressed their support for the proposal to hold early presidential and legislative elections if a national dialogue is disrupted to get out of the political crisis, many have questioned the effectiveness of this option, including Marzouki, who confirmed that “the outlets for going to a referendum or early elections are very limited by the constitution.” And it requires consensus between the parties to the crisis, and it is not possible to go to a referendum on the political system or amend the constitution without the presence of the Constitutional Court, which is still dysfunctional today.

Moncef Marzouki

In the face of this dilemma, it seems that the Tunisian president chose the strangest solution ever, which is to install himself as the sole ruler of the country, waving to use the military force of the army and security forces against his opponents. But in light of the clear division that the country is witnessing over Said’s decisions, no one can predict what the Tunisian army will do in the event of widespread protests against the president’s decisions, and whether the army, which refused to shoot its people a decade ago during the era of Ben Ali, will do This is in order to protect the ambitions of Kais Saied. But regardless of the fate of the army’s bullets in the end, it seems that Qais Saeed himself fired two bullets last night, the first aimed at the head of the Tunisian democracy, which was breathing its last, and the second at his head, because the democracy that the president killed was the one that brought him to power in the first place. The first, which is the sole guarantor of its survival.