London (AFP)

Already rising sharply, coffee prices have experienced a surge of fever this week, especially driven by the weather and geopolitical unrest, but consumers are not yet suffering the consequences and these should remain limited.

"Several reasons are able to explain the astronomical rise in coffee prices" on the markets, notes Carlos Mera, analyst at Rabobank, who cites in bulk the increase in transport costs, the political unrest in Colombia, the third largest producer in the world, which have hampered its exports and especially the devastating weather conditions in Brazil.

After a dry episode earlier in the year, a wave of frost hit plantations this week in Minas Gerais, the state which produces 70% of Brazilian arabica.

The negative temperatures "cause a defoliation of the trees and can even kill the youngest, what to affect the yield of the future harvest" of the first producer and exporter of coffee in the world, continues Mr. Mera.

Arabica is also subject to a natural phenomenon which greatly varies the supply from one year to another: the "two-year" cycle which affects the plants and makes them alternate good productivity and lower yield, as for the season to. to come.

Opposite, demand is picking up as the vaccination campaigns against Covid-19 progress and the gradual reopening of places of consumption away from home, where arabica, unlike robusta present especially in soluble coffees, is favored. .

- White years -

"With the expected reduction in production in many exporting countries during the 2021-22 season, the total supply is expected to be lower than world consumption," even warned the International Coffee Organization (ICO) earlier this month. , after several years of surplus.

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As a result, the price of a pound of arabica has skyrocketed since January, taking 60% to temporarily exceed $ 2 on Friday, a first since October 2014.

The prices of robusta, a variety mainly grown in Southeast Asia, are not to be outdone: they have appreciated by around 7% since Monday and by nearly 40% since the start of the year.

However, the economist specializing in raw materials Philippe Chalmin recalls that coffee prices have been particularly low in recent years.

The Arabica pound still cost over $ 3 a little over ten years ago, in May 2011.

"Coffee producers are emerging from a very long price crisis", abounds Valeria Rodriguez, head of the Advocacy & Mobilization pole within the fair trade association Max Havelaar.

"Over the past four or five years, most of them have worked at a loss," she told AFP, "and behind every smaller harvest are producers who lose their income."

- Moderate increase for the consumer -

Will this increase be passed on to the end consumer?

Yes, answers Carlos Mera, but little and not immediately.

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“Roasters use the market to hedge against short-term price increases, so it typically takes three to nine months to see the effects in retail sales,” he explains. AFP.

The price increase for consumers will however remain much lower than that of the raw material, which is only one component of the price among others: transport, packaging, marketing ...

"Ground coffee is sold on average 15 euros per kilo and that in pods 45 euros per kilo, or even more", emphasizes Ms. Rodriguez, far from the current price of arabica, still below 4 euros per kilo.

In France, the price of coffee sold in supermarkets has changed very little in recent months and remains close to its 2015 reference price, according to data shared by INSEE.

The current rise in coffee prices is also part of a broader context of inflation in the prices of raw materials, whether agricultural or industrial, copper or tin, for example, having broken historic records in recent weeks. .

© 2021 AFP