Chinanews client, Beijing, July 22 (Reporter Zhang Ni) On the 22nd, the stagnant water on the streets of Zhengzhou City gradually receded, and the daily life of the citizens slowly recovered. Zhengzhou City Fangzhi reduced the flood prevention level I emergency response to level III .
This is a rare torrential rain that has refreshed multiple historical records, but when the floods recede, people still want to ask: Why is the loss caused by this torrential rain so heavy?
Is there a price that should not have been paid?
The picture shows the exit of Shakou Road Station of Zhengzhou Metro Line 5 in danger on the evening of July 20.
Photo by China News Agency reporter Li Guigang
Can rainfall forecasts be more accurate?
On the evening of July 20th, on Line 5 of Zhengzhou Metro, waist-deep water in the subway car became a hot picture on the Internet. Many netizens were surprised: Why is the subway still operating under such heavy rain?
Passengers still go to the car?
In fact, on the 20th, when national public opinion focused on Zhengzhou, Henan, it had rained for three days.
What makes the public question: Is the previous forecast of the meteorological department accurate for such a large amount of rainfall?
In fact, at 11 o'clock in the morning on the 19th, the Zhengzhou Meteorological Bureau issued a weather forecast saying that there will be heavy rains in Zhengzhou from the 19th to the 21st.
At noon of the same day, a yellow warning signal for heavy rain and a yellow warning signal for thunder and lightning were issued respectively.
At 19:13 that night, the rainstorm warning was upgraded to orange. After more than 2 hours, the warning was upgraded again and turned to red.
On the 20th, the red warning was issued continuously.
However, the intensity of the heavy rain far exceeded many people's expectations-from 16:00 to 17:00 on the 20th, the precipitation in Zhengzhou reached 201.9 mm in one hour, which exceeded the precipitation in July.
The director of Zhengzhou National Basic Weather Station, Ruan Xiang, who has 37 years of work experience, described it as "never seen", "full of doubt" and "unbelievable". The weather monitors couldn't even believe the rainstorm data, and finally chose to hand-calculate and proofread... …
Since the rainfall is so high, can previous weather forecasts be more accurate?
On the evening of the 20th, the official Weibo of Zhengzhou Meteorological Bureau answered this question: As far as heavy rain is concerned, it is the result of the interaction of different time scales and different spatial scales affecting the system.
At present, the observational data and information related to heavy rain it provides are mainly for the weather scale, but the small and medium-scale observations that directly cause heavy rain are not sufficient or even scarce.
Therefore, the term "local" often appears in rainstorm forecasts, precisely because with current forecasting capabilities, it is often only possible to predict the range of local strong weather in advance, and it is not possible to predict the exact location of its occurrence in advance.
The accuracy of rainstorm forecasts has always been a world-class problem.
Even in developed countries such as the United States, the 24-hour rainstorm forecast accuracy rate is only 22% to 23%.
Cheng Xiaotao, a member of the Expert Committee of the National Disaster Reduction Commission and the former director of the Institute of Flood Control and Disaster Mitigation of the China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, also pointed out in an interview with the media that when the heavy rain was forecast this time, the meteorological department initially predicted that the rainfall center would be in Jiaozuo, but in the end Actually in Zhengzhou, there is a slight deviation.
This is an unavoidable error in existing meteorological science and technology.
On July 22, 15 officers and soldiers of the Water Search and Rescue Unit of Aneng Wuhan Rescue Base, China, carried 2 sets of "dragon suction" and 2 sets of integrated pump trucks to carry out drainage operations from north to south in the Jingguang North Road Tunnel in Zhengzhou City. .
Photo by China News Agency reporter Zhang Chang
Can the emergency response mechanism keep up?
A rain has left a city in a "soaking" state for a short time. After the meteorological department warned, did other emergency measures keep up in time?
On the afternoon of the 20th, Zhengzhou City upgraded the flood control emergency response level to 3 levels within 5 and a half hours.
At 16:30 that day, the highest level of emergency response to flood prevention level I was launched.
However, the evening rush hour of the city's traffic was still going on in heavy rain. Eventually, a train of subways was stopped due to the backflow of stagnant water, and hundreds of people were trapped in the tunnel.
What does Zhengzhou's red rainstorm warning issued as early as the 19th mean?
In accordance with the "Measures for the Issuance and Dissemination of Meteorological Disaster Warning Signals of Henan Province", the content of the defense guidelines corresponding to the rainstorm red warning signal includes: the government and relevant departments shall perform emergency and rescue work in accordance with their responsibilities; stop gatherings, suspension of classes, and business suspension Outside); Do a good job in the prevention and rescue of disasters such as mountain torrents, landslides, and mudslides.
Obviously, emergency response measures are more important after the meteorological department's warning is issued.
The “Regulations on Prevention of Meteorological Disasters” promulgated and implemented by the State Council in 2010 clearly stated that the emergency plan for meteorological disasters should include the initiation standards for emergency plans, the emergency organization and command system and responsibilities, prevention and early warning mechanisms, emergency response measures and safeguard measures.
In addition, local meteorological authorities at all levels and relevant departments of local people's governments at or above the county level shall, in accordance with the division of responsibilities, jointly do a good job in the prevention of meteorological disasters in their respective administrative regions.
The "Henan Meteorological Disaster Emergency Plan" issued in the same year clearly stated that meteorological departments must inform the public of weather warnings as soon as possible.
In response to heavy rains, the above-mentioned emergency plan also specifically clarifies that the meteorological department shall strengthen monitoring and forecasting, timely issue rainstorm warning signals and related defense guidelines, and increase the density of forecast periods in a timely manner.
The public security and transportation departments shall formulate detour routes for water-damaged and accumulated water sections, and implement traffic guidance or control.
Regarding rail transit, the "Zhengzhou Rail Transit Regulations" proposes that when natural disasters, severe weather conditions, or major safety accidents and other emergencies seriously affect rail transit safety and cannot guarantee safe operations, rail transit operators can suspend operations in a timely manner. Report to the municipal transportation administrative department and make an announcement to the public.
According to the analysis of relevant experts, the meteorological department has continuously issued the highest-level warnings, but the problem is that my country has not yet formed a set of emergency mechanisms for meteorological warnings.
After the weather warning, what kind of situation should stop production?
How should the various departments be coordinated?
How to dispatch various disaster relief resources?
What is the real emergency action to be taken?
A series of issues need to be clarified.
On the second day of the accident on Zhengzhou Metro Line 5, the Ministry of Transport issued the "Emergency Notice on Effectively Doing a Good Job in Flood Control of Urban Rail Transit."
The "Notice" pointed out that operating units must fully learn from the recent rainwater intrusion incidents, further adjust and improve emergency plans, and take emergency measures such as stopping trains, evacuating passengers, and closing stations in unconventional situations such as excessive rainstorm intensity.
On July 22, the firefighters in Zhengzhou received a report from Zhengzhou Fuwai Hospital that some trapped people needed rescue.
The reporter followed the rescuers to the hospital and went to the intersection of East Fourth Ring Road and Zhengkai Avenue. The culvert in front was impassable.
Photo by Lang Lang, a reporter from China News Service
Can sponge city construction alleviate waterlogging?
In this rare rainstorm in history, some netizens turned up an "old news" about "Zhengzhou building a sponge city to bid farewell to'watching the sea'".
In recent years, the construction of sponge cities has been carried out in many cities across the country. So, can this extreme rain be used to criticize the construction of "sponge cities"?
In October 2015, the General Office of the State Council issued the "Guiding Opinions on Promoting the Construction of Sponge Cities", which clarified that through the construction of sponge cities, the impact of urban development and construction on the ecological environment will be minimized, and 70% of the rainfall will be absorbed and used locally. .
According to media reports, at present, more than 400 cities in my country have issued implementation plans for the construction of sponge cities to accelerate the construction of sponge cities.
What is the situation in Henan Province?
In May 2016, Henan Province issued the "Implementation Opinions on Promoting the Construction of Sponge Cities", which identified 8 cities including Zhengzhou, Xuchang, Puyang, and Jiaozuo as provincial-level sponge cities for exploration and pilot drive.
In order to better build a sponge city, Zhengzhou has issued the "Zhengzhou City Sponge City Special Plan (2017-2030)", which proposes that Zhengzhou City should plan 191 waterlogging drainage channels in the main urban area; construct and renovate the sponge park; in the river Create ecological riverside buffer zones on both sides of the strait...
The "Planning" also mentioned the construction goal. By 2030, the area in the main urban area of Zhengzhou that meets the requirements for sponge city construction will account for about 88.7% of the total area of the built-up area.
So, can such a sponge city withstand the invasion of heavy rain?
Some industry experts believe that it is a misunderstanding of the sponge city to attribute the flood disaster in Zhengzhou to the construction of the sponge city.
Xia Jun, academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and dean of the Institute of Water Safety of Wuhan University, analyzed the media that the construction of sponge cities can alleviate excessive floods within its decentralized and centralized water storage and drainage capacity.
But it cannot eliminate the losses caused by extraordinary natural disasters that exceed the standard.
Xia Jun emphasized that when extraordinary natural disasters that exceed standards occur, what humans can do is forecast, early warning and dispatch, use possible engineering and non-engineering measures to prevent them in advance, and reduce or reduce natural disaster losses as much as possible.
"This heavy rain is placed in any city in the world. I believe the situation is similar to Zhengzhou, (but if the response is timely), the loss may be reduced." Distinguished expert of the Disaster Reduction Professional Committee of the Chinese Society of Hydraulic Engineering, Professor of the Department of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, South China University Huang Guo commented like this.
Currently, rescue and post-disaster reconstruction work is still in progress.
The flood receded, but the lesson left to Zhengzhou and other cities in China is forever.
According to the seventh national census, in 2020, there will be a total of 18 cities with permanent residents exceeding 10 million mark.
In extreme weather, the test faced by any city is just as severe.
How to prevent the tragedy from happening again?
This is a question that all local governments should think about.
(Finish)