Nord Stream 2: "This agreement will put Germany back at the center of the gas game"
The Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline between Russia and Germany has long divided Europeans and fueled tensions with Washington.
Odd ANDERSEN AFP / File
Text by: Agnieszka Kumor
4 min
The reactions are strong and numerous after the agreement between the United States and Germany on the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. According to Poland and Ukraine, this controversial installation threatens all of central Europe from a point of view. political, military and energy.
Analysis by Thierry Bros, professor at Sciences Po Paris and specialist in energy issues.
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RFI: In terms of European energy security, what will the commissioning of the controversial gas pipeline change, the work of which is 98% complete?
Thierry Bros:
From my point of view, not much.
I am one of the analysts who thinks that there will not be more Russian gas coming to Europe.
Why ?
Because the Russians never wanted to sell much more gas in Europe for economic reasons.
Today, they cover 40% of the European market.
They
de facto
leave
the remaining 60% to competition.
However, if you exceed 40% of market share, the competition rules become very restrictive.
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To read also: Nord Stream 2: compromise between Washington and Berlin around the gas pipeline
No, it is more likely to be gas re-routed from Ukraine and sent directly to Germany via the Baltic Sea. There are two economic consequences. The Russians want to reduce the transit in Ukraine and, what goes with it, reduce the payment of the toll in this country. The Russians are indeed going to pay the Ukrainians $ 1.3 billion for the transit of their gas in 2021. This is therefore quite substantial sums, especially for the suffering Ukrainian economy.
The second thing is that this agreement will put Germany back at the center of the gas game.
From an economic point of view, the value of the German gas transmission network will increase, since all the gas that will then be distributed over the European plate will have to essentially pass through Germany.
The toll will be paid by the German company which owns the pipes in Germany.
How to explain the American turnaround?
It's hard to explain ... This agreement with Germany is a very clear victory for Russia and Germany.
It is quite astonishing to see that the Americans at the last moment change their position.
Moreover, this is not the prevailing vision in the US Congress.
Democrats and Republicans are against this deal.
They want to keep the sanctions against Nord Stream 2 in place.
It's a saga that goes from twist to twist.
Before leaving, the chancellery, Angela Merkel signs this agreement which engages above all her, but not necessarily the one who will succeed her.
Last point: the Poles, like the Ukrainians, are fighting fiercely against this pipeline.
The Poles promise legal remedies.
They will be forced to buy their gas in the West rather than in the East.
And not for the same price, of course.
For all these reasons, it should be remembered that the game is not over yet.
Poles and Ukrainians see red in this matter. This new gas pipeline does in fact bypass Ukraine. What are the guarantees to protect this country from Russian pressure, and financially compensate for the loss of future income?
In this agreement, it is a question, among other things, of financial aid that could go towards energy transition projects in Ukraine.
Nothing new, since these are investments that were already promised to this country by the Europeans.
So, in fact, we are recycling promises, if I may use the expression.
If Russia and Germany are the big winners, for the other parties this agreement is a real risk.
And as regards our energy dependence: European gas production barely covers 13% of our needs.
For the remaining 87%, Europeans are dependent on others.
Among them, Russia with its company Gazprom and the United States are the biggest contributors.
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