Russia will continue to assist Tajikistan in strengthening the border with Afghanistan and will build an outpost on it.

This was stated by the Deputy Foreign Minister of the Russian Federation Andrei Rudenko.

The diplomat stressed that assistance is provided both in a bilateral format and within the framework of the decision of the CSTO Council of September 23, 2013 to strengthen the Tajik-Afghan border - a key instrument for ensuring the security of the southern borders of the organization.

“The readiness to support a friendly state - both bilaterally and within the CSTO - was also confirmed by President Putin during his telephone conversation with President Rahmon in early July.

An intergovernmental agreement is now being prepared for signing on the provision of gratuitous aid to Tajikistan for the construction of a border outpost on the Tajik-Afghan border, ”RIA Novosti quotes Rudenko.

According to him, the northern Afghan provinces are rapidly turning into a new hot spot - the Taliban almost completely control the Afghan-Tajik border, while the positions of international terrorist organizations are being strengthened.

“The process of recruiting people from Central Asia into the ranks of such organizations is in an active phase.

Drug production has reached record heights, ”Rudenko described the situation.

Russian Ambassador to Tajikistan Igor Lyakin-Frolov said earlier that the Russian military base, if necessary, would deter any aggressive actions by Afghan terrorists.

“I have no doubt that, if necessary, the 201st RVB will repel any aggressive actions by Afghan terrorist organizations.

In addition, the command of the 201st RVB provides our Tajik partners with assistance in training personnel of the republic's armed forces, ”the ambassador emphasized.

The 201st military base is the largest Russian military facility outside the country.

It includes tank, artillery, motorized rifle and reconnaissance units, as well as air defense and RChBZ formations.

Destabilization in the region

Recall that the situation on the Afghan-Tajik border in recent months has worsened against the backdrop of an armed confrontation between the Afghan government forces and the Taliban * militants.

The Taliban, having seized significant territories in the countryside, launched a large-scale offensive against regional centers and large cities.

The activation of the militants was provoked by the hasty withdrawal of the US and NATO armed forces from Afghanistan.

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The withdrawal of the US military from the country is carried out in accordance with the peace agreement signed by the Donald Trump administration with representatives of the Taliban in Doha in early 2020.

According to the initial agreements, US troops were to leave Afghanistan by May 1, 2021.

However, the Joe Biden administration that came to power pushed that deadline until September 11, 2021, the 20th anniversary of the terrorist attacks in New York, which served as one of the reasons for the US intervention in Afghanistan.

In April, following the United States, the decision to withdraw its forces from the country was made by its NATO allies.

Soon, Washington significantly increased the pace of its withdrawal from Afghanistan.

In early July, the US military in a hurry left the largest US air base in the country - Bagram airfield, located 60 kilometers northwest of Kabul.

The media subsequently reported that the Americans left Bagram at nightfall, turning off the electricity and not alerting local security officials.

On July 7, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov noted that Moscow was observing the development of the situation, which was provoked by the hasty withdrawal of the United States and NATO.

“We are closely following what is happening in Afghanistan, where the situation is tending to a rapid deterioration, including in the context of the hasty withdrawal of American and other NATO troops,” the minister said.

At the same time, Zamir Kabulov, the Russian president's special envoy for Afghanistan, said that the Taliban had managed to take control of up to half of more than 400 counties.

“We must not lose sight of the fact that most of the counties went over to the Taliban without a fight.

Yes, and what does it mean passed?

Government troops simply abandoned their garrisons, positions and fled, to call a spade a spade.

Therefore, the Taliban easily entered and brought these counties under their control.

In Afghanistan, more than 400 counties, of which now more than a third, maybe up to half, are under the control of the Taliban not as a result of hostilities, but as a result of the withdrawal of government troops from these territories, ”RIA Novosti quoted him as saying.

At the same time, the Russian diplomat noted that the militants failed to occupy any of the administrative centers in the provinces.

“Yes, the Taliban are capable of raiding, raiding, breaking into cities from a military-technical point of view, but holding them back - they do not yet have the strength to do so,” Kabulov explained.

Offensive without victories

Since September 2020, in Doha, there have been inter-Afghan negotiations between representatives of the official authorities in Kabul and the Taliban.

However, during this time, the parties failed to agree on an agenda or come to an agreement on a ceasefire between government forces and the Taliban.

Taliban representatives on July 19, after a regular meeting in the Qatari capital, announced the failure of negotiations with the government and their withdrawal from them.

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  • © Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation

Note that the United States believes that the Taliban are still far from overthrowing the government in Kabul.

So, this, in particular, was stated by the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General of the US Army Mark Milli.

“They spread the idea of ​​their inevitable victory and dominate the airwaves.

(...) But I'll tell you what ... none of the 34 capitals of the Afghan provinces has yet been captured, "Milli said at a briefing at the Pentagon.

Nevertheless, "the strategic advantage seems to be on the side of the Taliban," as they have seized "significant territory" over the past six to ten months, the American military leader added.

“The negative outcome - the inevitable military seizure (of power in the country. -

RT

) by the Taliban - is not a foregone conclusion.

We will continue to monitor the situation closely and make adjustments as necessary, ”said Milli.

Andrei Rudenko rightly notes that assistance to Tajikistan is needed today, since the intra-Afghan processes are now very complex, political analyst Alexander Asafov said in a conversation with RT.

“Through the CSTO and other areas of military-technical cooperation, Russia is ready to provide assistance, even if there is an insignificant likelihood of a military conflict developing.

Undoubtedly, Moscow will have enough forces and means to ensure security in the region if such a threat arises, ”Asafov explained.

In addition, the vectors for the further development of this situation are not yet fully clear, so major regional players are under observation, the political scientist says.

"The situation is ambiguous and quite tense, it can at any moment develop into a serious armed local conflict, because the Taliban are trying to increase the number of territories they control," Asafov said.

So far, the Taliban really cannot take and retain large cities, but if the conflict drags on, it will be only a matter of time, said Andrei Kazantsev, professor at the Higher School of Economics, chief researcher at MGIMO, in an interview with RT.

“Indeed, so far the Taliban have not captured a single administrative center of the Afghan provinces.

At the same time, many large cities and centers are under siege, the Taliban controls all the surrounding territories and approaches to the city and, if desired, can go there or organize terrorist attacks there.

Now the radicals do not have the potential to take over large cities, including Kabul.

However, if the war drags on for a year or two, then the Taliban may well have the strength to win this confrontation, "the expert explained.

At the same time, Russia has enough resources to help Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, which, due to their geographic proximity to Afghanistan, were under the threat of invasion by any radical groups or international terrorists, added Andrei Kazantsev.

“Moscow has always demonstrated support both through the bilateral line and through the CSTO, including supplying weapons and conducting special exercises, during which they worked out the option of invading various formations across the Tajik border.

Russia is interested in the situation to remain stable, because otherwise waves of refugees to Russian territory are possible, as well as an increase in drug trafficking and terrorist activity, "Kazantsev summed up.

* "Taliban" - the organization was recognized as terrorist by the decision of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation of February 14, 2003.