When Al-Jazeera was allowed to enter Tigray, the region in northern Ethiopia isolated from the world, where communication networks and the Internet were cut off from everyone under the weight of the war between the Tigray People’s Liberation Front and the Ethiopian army, the channel’s cameras only recorded corpses scattered in the streets, and the tears of the people of the region in front of the rubble of their homes, And pale-faced women weeping next to the corpses of their children here and there, showing signs of starvation and the brunt of wars. One survivor, testifying to Amnesty International, says that Eritrean soldiers fighting alongside government forces shot anyone who tried to remove the bodies. It is a narration that is corroborated by what the lenses have observed of corpses, as well as the smell of blood that stuffed the noses of the reporters and polluted the air in the area in a frightening way. On the other hand, satellite images reveal to us another part of the story by observing the effects of the massive indiscriminate bombing of civilian homes in the heart of the city of "Maqli" or "Makalla", the capital of the region. (1)
After months of intense fighting between the forces of the Ethiopian army and the forces of the Tigray People's Liberation Front, which began in November 2020, the task of subjugating the region, which was ruled by Ethiopia for three continuous decades, failed, and in a remarkable military transformation, the front announced its control of Maqla and pursued the Ethiopian forces that withdrew Out of the city, justifying its withdrawal by allowing the success of the agricultural season linked to the rains. Despite the cessation of the actual fighting, the specter of a broader conflict awaits Tigray and its environs, especially after the leaders of the Northern Territory announced their intention to transfer the war soon to the Amhara region and to the neighboring state of Eritrea, unless Abi Ahmed steps down as prime minister of Ethiopia. This coincides with the escalation of other similar ethnic unrest in the west of the country, and with a wide diplomatic move by Egypt and Sudan against the Ethiopian regime because of its practices regarding the Renaissance Dam file.
The story of the conflict in the Tigray region, which has killed thousands of civilians, and made most of the region’s 5.5 million residents in dire need of food aid, in addition to 350,000 of them falling under the brunt of a deadly famine, is summed up in an ancient renewed conflict between two men, the Prime Minister A 45-year-old young man, who is the youngest African leader today, and another old man named "Debrasion Gebre Michael", is currently the governor of the Tigray region, and the Ethiopian Prime Minister is a quarter of a century older, and more than half a century in political and military work. The experienced old man, "Michael" was one of the most influential people in Ethiopia, but he lost to Abi Ahmed in a competition that took place in 2018 within the ruling coalition, during which the latter came to power, after which "Debrasion" made statements to the British newspaper "Financial Times", speaking of Abi Ahmed. : "I told him you are immature, you are not the right candidate."
With time, the enmity between the two men became more and more entrenched, and soon it was reflected in a dramatic shift that suddenly affected the entire Ethiopian politics after three decades of the domination of the Tigrayans and the culture of power in Ethiopia since the overthrow of the military dictator “Mengestu Haile Mariam” in 1991, although the Their proportion does not exceed 6% of the multinational Ethiopian people. However, that Tigrayan elite was linked with time to networks of corruption and tyrannical practices, and while "Debrasion" prepared himself to reach the prime ministership after becoming the leader of Tigray, huge popular protests erupted that shook the pillars of Ethiopian politics, and overthrew the rule of "Hailemariam Desalegn", and Abiy succeeded him. Ahmed in April 2018, the young man who was awarded the Nobel Prize in a short time due to the peace agreement he concluded with the neighboring country of Eritrea, the archenemy of the Tigray Front and formerly Ethiopia.But as soon as the old man disappeared for a while in favor of the charisma of the reformist youth, the tone of reform faded, and the flames of ethnic conflicts erupted in Ethiopia. (2)
Since he came to power, Abi Ahmed has quietly removed the Tigrayans from senior positions in the army and intelligence services, and arrested senior officials from among them in political positions in the name of fighting corruption, and replaced them in favor of the Oromo ethnicity to which he belongs. When Abe visited the Tigray region at the time, he was met with a lackluster reception that infuriated him, so the old man "Debrasion" advised him at the time, saying that "focusing on one ethnic group is dangerous." Apparently, the young leader misunderstood the veiled message that came from the most militarized region in Ethiopia, and he continued to consolidate his grip and build on his widespread reputation as a reformist leader. After that, Abiy dissolved the "ruling coalition", and then established the Prosperity Party, which lost the "Tigray Front" the last remaining influence in the federal government, and considered it an actual coup against it.
The events following these perceptions were merely early indications of the country’s rapid return to civil conflict, the most important of which was the failed coup attempt that resulted in the killing of the Ethiopian army chief of staff at the hands of his Tigrayans, in retaliation for his proximity to Abi Ahmed. Abe then made a bigger mistake by appointing a chief of staff and an intelligence director from outside the Tigray nation, positions they have never lost since their accession to power in 1991. Abe believed that trimming Tigray nails would help consolidate his rule, but Abe's calculations were never correct. The events of the past months proved, and instead, the warnings of "Debrasion" became true.
The changers saw that Abiy was trying to undermine their influence in favor of the Oromo, and the dispute escalated to an unprecedented level after the Ethiopian parliament approved a plan to keep the prime minister in office under the pretext of the Corona pandemic and to postpone the elections scheduled for August 2020, when Abi Ahmed’s term ends. Tigray considered this an unconstitutional step and a pretext to form a new dictatorship, and the speaker of Parliament belonging to the region announced her resignation from her position in protest, and then the region witnessed a massive mobilization against the Ethiopian army, and there seemed to be a state of alert between the two parties that paved the way for a military attack by the army against the region.
At the same time, the Tigray Front challenged Abiy Ahmed, announced the organization of elections in the region unilaterally, and demanded the Central Election Commission to supervise them, and while the central government refused to recognize the elections and considered them illegal and unconstitutional, the regional government responded that it also does not recognize the central government as an unconstitutional entity , given the end of Abi Ahmed's term. The conflict reached its climax when Abe stopped the Tigray region from obtaining its budget from the federal government, and issued a decision to dissolve the regional government. An armed clash is inevitably imminent after that, a political and economic escalation, especially since the leaders of the region, whom Abi Ahmed angered, are proud of the clear military superiority of Tigray as a result of their long conflict with Eritrea. When the forces of the Tigray Liberation Front raided a military base of the Ethiopian army, Abi Ahmed responded with air strikes on the region, which quickly ignited the flames of the conflict. (3)
In November 2020, Abiy announced a military operation against a region in which about 250,000 fighters with heavy weapons are among the most advanced in the country, along with 20,000 specially trained commandos, and long-range missiles that had previously bombed the airport of the Eritrean capital. For Tigray, the battle was a zero-sum game to bring down Abiy's overcentralized unitary project and its undermining of Ethiopia's ethnic and cultural pluralism, and to return once again to the loose federalism that, in theory, has ruled Ethiopia since 1991.
After eight months of fighting, which witnessed a remarkable progress for the Ethiopian army, a sudden military shift occurred when the Tigrayans advanced and regained their old lines, coinciding with the occurrence of hundreds of wounded and thousands of prisoners in the ranks of the Ethiopian army, and its withdrawal in the end at a critical time for Abi Ahmed. At the same time, he began organizing parliamentary elections in the country after they were postponed twice. The most dangerous thing is that the regions bordering Tigray have also witnessed similar unrest, but without slipping into armed conflict, most notably the Benishangul region bordering Sudan and containing the Renaissance Dam, as well as the Oromia region itself, to which the president belongs. Ministers.
With his actual defeat on the battlefield now, Abi Ahmed is looking for a small victory by withdrawing from the Tigray region - which is excluded from the elections that Abi Ahmed's party actually won - in exchange for international recognition of the legitimacy of the electoral results that took place across the country.
The direction of the Ethiopian Prime Minister is clear in this regard, especially after he commented on the withdrawal of his forces from the region, which, in his view, is no longer a focus of conflicts, stressing that his forces will return again to the region after next September, which reveals his intention to tactical withdrawal first. Then, winning the elections and passing the second mobilization of the Renaissance Dam this month, before returning again to the fighting in Tigray.
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki
A return to fighting seems a matter of time, then. Even if the Tigrayans and Abiy Ahmed accepted laying down their arms and negotiating, it is expected that this move would lead to hidden disputes between Ethiopia and Eritrea, which participated in heavy forces in the region, and committed war crimes that may expose it to international legal accountability. The Eritrean President, Isaias Afwerki, is known for his intense hostility with the Tigray region for complex political and historical considerations due to the long wars waged by the old regime led by the Tigrayans against his country, other than the fact that the last war witnessed intense missile launches against Eritrea as punishment for it. The Eritrean crisis is engulfed in one of the most important constraints that limit Abiy Ahmed's options in dealing with it.
However, continuing the fighting in Tigray will never be a picnic for Abi Ahmed and his comrades. The greatest danger is related to the possibility of the confrontations spreading to other new regions that are experiencing tensions with the central authority, especially the Benishangul region, which hosts the Ethiopian dam, which is witnessing intermittent violence that occurred most notably in 2016. Egypt provides financial support and training for terrorist elements to undermine the stability of the country. Recently, Ethiopia announced that it had thwarted several cyber attacks from Egypt aimed at disrupting economic and political activities inside Ethiopia.
The previous accusation is in line with the recent Egyptian moves in the Horn of Africa and the Nile Basin countries, which aim to build dams in several countries that suffer from electrical deficits, with the aim of helping these countries to reach self-sufficiency in electricity, which Ethiopia can consider a competitive act and undermine its role, as it leads To a decrease in the demand for the purchase of electricity that will be generated by the Renaissance Dam. Addis Ababa plans to generate about 6,450 megawatts of hydroelectric power, and Addis Ababa is counting on this to support its economy as a future source of national income, especially with the faltering economic reform plans initiated by Abi Ahmed.
At a time when Cairo is officially pressing a long-delayed attempt to protect its rights and adhere to diplomacy, the Tigray crisis, which has given it an outlet to exploit the worsening internal situation in Ethiopia and strained its relations with the United States against the background of violations against the Tigrayans, seems to be an opportunity to obtain support from the international community to put pressure on Addis Ababa to sign a binding agreement on the operation of the dam. At the same time, the issue of the Renaissance Dam seems to be the only card that Abiy holds after his economic plans faltered and his political project disintegrated, and then Cairo is facing an increasing Ethiopian arrogance that disregards international mediation efforts, a strategy that seems effective so far in protecting the Ethiopian position, especially with The preoccupation of the major powers with the repercussions of the pandemic, and with the most important regional crises for them, which was highlighted by the failure of Egypt’s attempt to resort to the Security Council recently, as the bias of Russia and China towards the Ethiopian position was evident.
Eventually, Addis Ababa has already announced the second filling of the dam and, having successfully passed the election hurdle, is preparing to continue the battles in the fall against the Tigray People's Liberation Front. For its part, Cairo continues to suffer from its absence from the region for many years, and although the worsening situation in Ethiopia has given it an outlet to shed light on the issue through the Security Council and move in East Africa to conclude economic, military and intelligence treaties to acquire as many new papers as it can acquire, reaching a solution that preserves Egyptian and Sudanese water rights for decades to come require more than an internal Ethiopian crisis that gives Cairo a narrow outlet. The largest countries at the mouth of the Nile River need a heavy and accumulated political balance to isolate Ethiopia and put pressure on it politically and economically, a balance that is built in years and decades, not through diplomatic moves within a few months.
Cairo has already succeeded in penetrating Ethiopia's regional support in East Africa in the past months, but the diplomatic path, which is increasingly blocked after the Security Council session, indicates that resolving a heavy issue such as securing the flow of the Nile waters needs more than traditional diplomacy.
As for Tigray, I taught everyone an indirect double lesson in dealing with Abiy and the Ethiopian regime behind him: the accumulated political and military balance for decades, in parallel with the ability to use it and mobilize it in moments of decisiveness, alone bearing fruit in that region whose features have not yet been mapped and not yet resolved. The destinies and identities of their peoples. As for diplomacy and international positions, they are nothing but a complement to those papers, and they can never be a substitute for them.
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Sources:
Amnesty International report on war crimes in Tigray (1)
Al Jazeera Center for Studies: Ethiopia.. From democratic transition to political impasse (2)
Steering Ethiopia's Tigray Crisis Away from Conflict (3)
Al Jazeera Center for Studies: Ethiopia and the Federal System: The Difficult Balance Between Ethnic Diversity and National Unity (4)