Chinanews.com, Beijing, July 14 (Reporter Sun Zifa) Springer Nature’s academic journal "Nature-Communications" recently published a climate change research paper "Assessing the changes of strong Atlantic hurricanes from 1851 to 2019", saying that the Atlantic Ocean The recent increase in the strongest hurricane (strong hurricane) may not be a change on a centennial scale, but a rebound from the lowest activity level in the 1960s and 1980s.
The paper emphasized that this research result does not absolutely mean that climate change has no effect on the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones.
Climate variability and the reduction of hurricanes caused by aerosols may conceal the contribution of warming caused by greenhouse gases to the frequency of strong hurricanes in the North Atlantic on a centennial scale, indicating that climate variability has a great influence on the activities of strong hurricanes in the Atlantic.
According to reports, with the increase in sea surface temperature, the intensity of tropical cyclones is expected to increase.
The frequency of strong Atlantic hurricanes has increased since the 1980s, but it is not clear whether this recent trend is the result of man-made greenhouse gas emissions or a manifestation of the variability of Atlantic hurricane activity.
There is a major challenge to the assessment in this regard: As satellite data only began to be available in 1972, the previous observation records may be incomplete, which means that the early hurricane activity may be underestimated.
The corresponding author of the paper, Princeton University Gabriel Vecchi and colleagues analyzed the records of strong hurricane activity in the Atlantic from 1851 to 2019. They used satellite data of hurricane paths and characteristics from 1972 to 2019 to estimate The number of storms that may have been missed by ships' records between 1851 and 1971.
Based on these estimated data, they found that strong hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean has increased in recent decades, but the frequency of recent strong hurricanes is not abnormal in the 20th century records, and shows a low from the 1960s to the 1980s. Pick up.
The author of the paper believes that the reduction of hurricane activity may be the result of the combined effect of the suppression of man-made aerosol emissions on hurricane activity and natural variability.
The latest estimated data still has interannual and interdecadal fluctuations, indicating that climate variability has a great influence on the activity of strong hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean.
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