Cairo -
“Mutual understanding and trust are essential, but pouring oil on fire and threatening to use force is something that must be prevented and avoided.” With a kind of astonishment, the Egyptians heard these words from “Vassily Nebenzia,” Russia’s representative to the United Nations, during the Security Council session in New York last Thursday, Concerning the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam crisis.
Regarding what the Russian delegate meant about Moscow’s refusal of the threat letter between the parties to the crisis, Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry said, “I interpret it as directing the conversation to Ethiopia because it often issues a threat to fill it without agreement or protect it against a hypothetical danger. Sometimes there are phrases that are taken vaguely. He asks who issues it.
Despite Shoukry's attempts to downplay the Russian position - during his televised statements - many Egyptians were surprised by the Egyptian-Russian relations that the Egyptian regime praises all the time, and the Egyptian media talks about it as one of the achievements of the regime of President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi.
Perhaps what raises questions about the Russian position is the signing by the Ethiopian Ministry of Defense of a military cooperation agreement in Addis Ababa with a delegation from the departments of the technical forces of the Russian army in order to raise the efficiency of the Ethiopian army.
According to a statement by the Ethiopian Ministry of Defense, the agreement aims to modernize the capacity of the Ethiopian army in knowledge, skills and technology.
It is noteworthy that after the Security Council meeting, the Ethiopian Minister of Defense, Marta Luigi, praised the Russian position, which was in support of Ethiopia in various international issues and arenas, including the Ethiopian general elections and the Renaissance Dam, she said.
hypothetical explanations
In this context, political analyst Muhammad Abu al-Nour believes that there are possible reasons that explain the Russian position, which appeared unfriendly to Egypt, and Abu al-Nour's monitoring of Al Jazeera Net is the most prominent of these explanations:
Egypt's participation in NATO exercises
These are maneuvers that took place in the Black Sea on June 28, in which more than 30 countries participated, including 4 Arab countries, including Egypt, and included Ukraine, Russia's archenemy.
America participated in these maneuvers despite the official protest of Russia, which saw these maneuvers as a provocation against it and against national security, as it stated that it would respond if necessary to protect its security.
Natural gas
After Egypt formed the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum in 2019 and the great interest that Egypt attached to gas discoveries and existing fields, this resulted in Egypt’s tendency to export abroad and then enter into the orbit of competition to export gas, and this became a threat to Russia’s natural gas exports to Europe, which is What Egypt seeks to seize part of its cake through the activity of the Gas Organization in the Eastern Mediterranean.
The expansion of the Horn of Africa
Russia is interested in having a foothold in Ethiopia to compete with the American presence and enhance the Russian economy by participating in investments in the Renaissance Dam, so Russia did not find it more suitable than Ethiopia, especially since America had previously convinced Sudan to cancel an agreement with Russia to establish a military base there, and Russia was It hopes to have influence in the Red Sea region.
Perhaps that is what Sudan tried to remedy last Monday, through the visit of Sudanese Foreign Minister Maryam al-Mahdi to Russia, where Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov announced that plans to establish a naval base in Sudan are making progress.
communication Web-sites
The Russian position had a wide resonance among Egyptian experts and analysts, as Imad Gad, Vice President of the Al-Ahram Center for Studies, spoke about canceling the economic agreements between Egypt and Russia. The Nile with all its consequences.
For years, the Egyptian regime has been trying to strengthen rapprochement with Russia through billions of joint economic projects, most of which have not yet been completed, such as the Dabaa nuclear reactor, estimated at $25 billion, and the development projects of the Suez Canal axis, which the Egyptian government had estimated at $7 billion, instead of numerous arms deals. Egypt signed a deal with Russia, the latest of which was the Russian Sukhoi fighter jet deal as an alternative to the American (F-35) fighters, but it did not take place amid Washington's objections.
In turn, the writer and political researcher Amr Al-Shobaki says that Egypt has voluntarily chosen decades ago to enter into an alliance with the United States and European countries, and it has taken positions more supportive of the Egyptian position, although what is required is not the love of America and Europe and hatred of Russia and China, indicating that Egypt will enter A new stage in dealing with the dam crisis after all soft policy tools have been exhausted, as he described it.
As for the journalist writer Ahmed El-Sayed El-Najjar, former Chairman of the Board of Directors of Al-Ahram Foundation, he saw that Russia, which understands Egypt’s need for the Nile water, rejects military action as an option to ensure its free flow, and it is trying to satisfy both Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia together with a fluid position that makes no difference between its presence and absence. He does not satisfy anyone, adding that the positions of the European Union countries do not differ from the Russian position, and the Italian position is closer to Ethiopia, especially since one of its largest companies (Salini) plays the main role in implementing the dam.
research vision
In this context, the Center for Arab-Eurasian Studies, which specializes in Russian affairs, issued a research paper in which it stated that in the light of a new world order that is being formed, the major powers, including Russia, determine their relations with others according to the criterion of the strength of the influence of the other party - positively or negatively - in their interests, not According to the criterion of friendship and historical relations, or consensus in the declared positions without effectiveness on the ground, and in this way it is possible to understand the nature of Russia's alliances in the region.
The center headed by broadcaster Amr Abdel Hamid, who is close to the Egyptian security services, mentioned several reasons for what he described as Russia's bias towards Ethiopia's position, most notably:
Egypt no longer has much influence in the hot spots in which Russia has interests, or cards that it can use against Moscow and fear it, especially since the regime of Russian President Vladimir Putin respects his opponents who have fangs and claws that could harm Russian interests if he disagrees with them. The current Russian regime does not He believes in nothing but power, due to historical and objective circumstances, and the nature of Putin's personality and the background from which he came.
Ethiopia is a resurgent country and Russia has had a great legacy in it since the establishment of the republican system. It can be said that the current Ethiopia with its federal political system is a clone of the Russian Bolshevik model, and Russia wants to return to the continent from its gate, and take advantage of the American estrangement with Addis Ababa because of the Tigray war.
Russia is still groping its way on the African continent, and it does not have the influence that would enable it to impose its own vision to resolve any conflict, especially in a complex and extended negotiation issue such as the Renaissance Dam, and Egypt preferred from the beginning American mediation, and Ethiopia only accepts African mediation, and whether Moscow supported the position of Cairo or Addis Ababa, this will not change anything, but Russia adheres to what appears to be a neutral position that carries with it support for the Ethiopian vision, and with it it can achieve several gains for its national interests as previously.
The absence of elite talk between Egypt and Russia and the absence of relations between Egyptian civil society and its Russian counterpart.