Washington will not be able to shirk its responsibilities after the exit, or terrorism will return again
The impact of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan on China's competition
The US withdrawal will leave Afghanistan exposed.
Father
The Afghan army may not be able to maintain security after the Americans leave.
EPA
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The United States continues - at the present time - to withdraw its military forces from Afghanistan to exceed the rate of withdrawal of forces by more than 50%, after US President Joe Biden announced, nearly two months ago, his intention to end the involvement of American forces in Kabul within the framework of achieving his goal of ending Washington's immersion in "eternal wars", given that Washington has achieved its goal in Afghanistan, which is to reduce the threats emanating from the Afghan state, threatening American interests and the interests of its allies, and to focus on competing with China as the most prominent geopolitical challenge it faces in the current century.
In this regard, The Atlantic magazine website published an article entitled “How the withdrawal from Afghanistan will affect the US relationship with China”, on June 25, in which Richard Fontaine and Vance Searcock discuss the arguments that advocates of the American withdrawal from Afghanistan defend as It will strengthen the competition with China, and then refute and refute these arguments as they will add more difficulties to the US policy towards Afghanistan in terms of military, diplomatic and financial terms, and then it will not be able to enhance its competition with Beijing in the framework of great power competition.
redirection
Biden declared that there is a need to redirect US attention and capabilities to the most pressing US foreign policy priorities, foremost among which is the "tough" competition with China.
Hence, it was obvious that Biden made a decision nearly two months ago to permanently withdraw American forces from Afghanistan to limit the United States’ involvement in a war that seems to have no end, in order to devote himself to confronting the challenges emanating from China, which is competing with it on all levels;
Military, economic and technological.
It is worth noting that it is not the first time that the US administration has taken a decision to reduce its presence in the Middle East, in favor of focusing on the Indo-Pacific region, as former US President Barack Obama justified the withdrawal from Iraq by being able to implement the strategy of shifting towards Asia.
According to the article, the reasons promoted by the US administration about the military withdrawal from Afghanistan, which is to enhance competitiveness with China, are not convincing. As the features of the US strategy toward Afghanistan for the post-withdrawal period raise doubts and ambiguities about Washington's ability to compete effectively with Beijing, as it appears that it will undermine the strategic ability of the United States in the face of the Chinese Communist Party.
In light of the division of opinions in the American society between supporters and opponents of the decision to withdraw US forces from Afghanistan, the supporters of the resolution presented three arguments according to which the US administration will be able to strengthen its competition with Beijing.
As the withdrawal will provide an opportunity to redeploy the American military equipment in Afghanistan in the Indo-Pacific region, and it is also expected that it will provide an opportunity for American diplomats and bureaucrats to devote more attention and effort to Beijing away from the “Afghan quagmire”, in addition to that the withdrawal will enable the state to finance initiatives that Washington's position is strengthened to enable it to compete with China by providing the money that the country would have continued to spend had it not withdrawn from Afghanistan, and then allocating billions of dollars to compete with Beijing.
Refutation of arguments
The article stated that the United States does not need the assets, equipment, and military forces that it possesses in Afghanistan to play an effective role against China. The American presence in Kabul had already been reduced before Biden was inaugurated, so the global balance of power will not change once the thousands of American soldiers stationed in the Afghan state are redeployed. Therefore, the US Department of Defense (Pentagon) should, if it wants to “strengthen the eroding American military superiority” in the Indo-Pacific region, be a top priority, and not rely primarily on US equipment and forces that are withdrawing it from Kabul, as it represents a small part under the necessary measures.
In addition to the above, the US administration does not aim to stop all hostilities in Afghanistan, but rather seeks to launch them from neighboring countries, in light of its pledge to continue providing support to the Afghan people and government. In addition, Washington cannot stop confronting terrorism in Afghanistan, as the dangers emanating from terrorist organizations have not yet ended. A non-confidential report issued by the US Treasury this year stated that Al-Qaeda continues to cooperate with the Taliban movement, in addition to having great influence inside Afghanistan. A report issued by the United Nations indicated that a large number of al-Qaeda members were stationed on the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan, which threatens to reorganize their efforts to form an extremist network in this region.
The article cited a number of reasons that indicate that the withdrawal from Afghanistan will not allow diplomats and bureaucrats to devote themselves to China, where the US administration is currently witnessing a series of crises that require a great diplomatic effort in an attempt to resolve them.
Among these crises, American officials considered the immigrant visas of the United States’ Afghan allies who cooperated with the American forces, and feared the reprisal of the “Taliban” movement after the completion of the withdrawal, as well as the ongoing consultations with the Turkish government to play a role in securing Kabul International Airport after the withdrawal. , in addition to the inability to agree with the Central Asian countries to establish a US military base in order to be close to Afghanistan, in conjunction with the ongoing consultations at the Pentagon to determine the best ways in which it can continue to provide military support to the Afghan forces, especially the Air Force, with No US forces remain on the country's territory.
The United States will also not be able to achieve savings from withdrawing American forces, as promoting this goal seems very illusory, especially since it appears that the American administration will continue to spend more money.
Where the US President pledged to continue providing financial support worth billions of dollars to the Afghan army annually, and in this regard, the administration proposed increasing the budget allocated to support the Afghan government.
Also, the American military bases and the American forces that will be stationed in any neighboring country, as well as the American planes that will travel huge distances to Afghanistan, will require spending a lot of money.
A new American approach
The US administration pledged, in order for Washington to be able to confront terrorist threats in Afghanistan, following the completion of the withdrawal, by adopting a strategy "beyond the horizon" to confront terrorism. This strategy is based mainly on confronting terrorist organizations inside Afghan territory by launching air operations from neighboring countries. But it should be noted that this strategy will require the US Department of Defense to provide more aircraft and allocate them to combat terrorism in Afghanistan, as combating terrorism requires a continuous presence of aircraft to detect and monitor targets, which American aircraft will not be able to do, as the aircraft will consume a lot of fuel, which reduces the chances of flying over Afghanistan. Hence, the US Air Force needs more support, which can happen by permanently placing an aircraft carrier in Pakistani waters.
Hence, many speculations are raised about the presence of the US aircraft carrier Ronald Reagan in the South China Sea in order to support US air missions in the post-withdrawal period. Based on the above, the actual problem appears, which is the Biden administration's risk of redistributing the "burden of the anti-terror mission" in Afghanistan in light of the need to rely on aircraft carriers and air forces. Also, the withdrawal of ground forces from Afghanistan will not be directed by the United States to compete with China because it is not required in the case of competition with it.
The US withdrawal will also lead to Washington disproportionately bearing the responsibility for combating terrorism in Afghanistan, as the US allies in the region are not qualified to provide the support US forces need, as required by the "beyond the horizon" strategy.
In addition to Washington's dependence on confronting terrorism in Kabul largely represented by the extensive foreign presence from other countries, the administration's tendency to rely on air surveillance and sophisticated attacks by aircraft requires assets that most of its allies do not possess.
rare hope
The United States may not have to indulge in all the previous problems in the post-withdrawal period in the best-case scenario, if the Afghan government and the Taliban can reach a peace agreement to end the conflict. Perhaps the state will not become a haven for terrorist organizations, even if the Taliban manages to control it, and then other countries will take on this task, and thus Washington will actually be able to divert resources and energies to competition with Beijing.
Despite this, the events of history in the Middle East have always revealed that the best cannot be expected, as the plans of previous US administrations have always been turned upside down due to the instability and turmoil in the region.
Since the (former President George) Bush administration wanted to draw attention to the rise of China, the events of September 11th took it in a second direction.
The emergence of the Islamic State has also decimated the Obama administration's desire to shift attention to Asia.
In this sense, developing an effective strategy to counter terrorist threats from Afghanistan is a prerequisite for a strong US foreign policy toward China.
Strengthening America's capacity is a priority
The administration of President Joe Biden should consider how to enhance "US strategic cohesion," not just how to pursue interests in protecting Americans from terrorism and Afghans threatened by the Taliban. It will be very difficult for Washington to focus on competing with the Chinese government and confronting the threats emanating from the “Belt and Road” initiative and those posed by Huawei while allowing transnational terrorist organizations to revive themselves again, with the related exacerbation of the refugee crisis. Public opinion polls also show that there is a bipartisan consensus that combating terrorism is a priority, if not more important, of US foreign policy than competition with China.
Hence, confronting terrorist organizations does not represent a conflict with adopting an effective policy to confront China, but rather it is a prerequisite for it.
If Washington allows terrorist organizations and instability to prevail in Afghanistan again, it will not be able to achieve its ambition of great power competition with Beijing.
The United States will also not be able to achieve savings from withdrawing American forces, as promoting this goal seems very illusory, especially since it appears that the American administration will continue to spend more money.
The US administration pledged, in order for Washington to be able to confront terrorist threats in Afghanistan, following the completion of the withdrawal, by adopting a strategy "beyond the horizon" to confront terrorism. This strategy is based on confronting terrorist organizations inside Afghan territory.
• The United States may not have to plunge into all the previous problems in the post-withdrawal period in the best case scenario, if the Afghan government and the "Taliban" movement were able to reach a peace agreement to end the conflict.
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