Cairo -
Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia are awaiting the outcome of the UN Security Council session this evening, Thursday, to discuss the Renaissance Dam crisis, at the request of the two downstream countries.
With Ethiopia’s announcement last Monday that the second filling of the Renaissance Dam lake had begun, there was increasing talk about the military option, especially in light of the bleak expectations about what the UN security session would result in.
Over the past months, the military option has been on the table for discussion as one of the possible or not possible options to solve the Ethiopian dam crisis among political analysts and military experts in the traditional media, as well as through social media.
Al Jazeera Net draws at specific points a hypothetical scenario for the aftermath of the military strike on the Renaissance Dam, if it occurs, and the expected results for it militarily, technically, internationally and at the African level.
First: the field of operations
Two military experts confirmed that there is no solution for Egypt but to strike the dam, in addition to the success of the operation.
The Egyptian military and strategic expert, retired Brigadier General Safwat Al-Zayat, confirmed in statements to Al-Jazeera Mubasher that:
A military strike on the dam has become a matter of extreme necessity, and it is not an aggression.
Egypt has two options: the first is by working over long distances from the Berenice base (southern Egypt), which is 1,400 km from the Renaissance Dam.
The other is the presence of air facilities close to the Sudanese border, which increases the military capacity by 80%, starting from the Marwa base (north) and others.
It is better to use Sudanese lands, especially since the dam is close to the Sudanese border, which allows Egyptian fighters to fly low and maneuver and be present in a few times from the target area.
It is better that the strike be directed at the construction equipment tools and everything above the surface, in addition to sectors in the central axis of the dam, and Egypt has missiles carried by fighters capable of carrying out this.
Egypt can strike the dam without Sudanese cooperation as long as it is limited to targeting the work of the ongoing facilities.
The Ethiopian response: Addis Ababa has fighters capable of reaching the High Dam area (southern Egypt), but the Egyptian air defense system is able to protect and respond, unlike the weak Ethiopian capabilities.
The United States may apply sanctions to Egypt under the "CAATSA" law (which punishes countries that cooperate with Washington's adversaries) after it prevented it from acquiring long-armed fighters, in reference to the use of the Russian "Sukhoi-35" fighters.
Military expert, Brigadier General Safwat al-Zayyat: We have to repeat what Sadat did in the October War, who refused to receive calls from world powers for 9 hours.
- Al Jazeera Mubasher (@ajmubasher) July 6, 2021
As for the Jordanian military and strategic expert, Fayez Al-Duwairi, he focused in his speech to Al-Jazeera Net on the following points:
He does not see a military action on the horizon, and its possibilities do not exceed 3%. However, he affirmed Cairo's ability to implement it alone, in a calculated military strike, and with a focus on the air force.
Rafale and Sukhoi-35 planes can take off from the Berenice base, to destroy the power stations without hitting the dam itself, and return to the base without the need to support Sudan.
Egyptian fighters are able to carry tons of explosives if their missiles are lightened in favor of fuel supplies.
In a larger case, the supporting dam (saddle) of the Renaissance Dam can be struck.
Ethiopia's missile capabilities There is no room to talk about its strength, but Cairo must account for the resulting risks.
Dr. Moataz Abdel-Fattah to Al-Jazeera Mubasher: Certainly there is a military strike on the Renaissance Dam because the conditions of #Egypt will not be stabilized if the Nile water is confined to another hand pic.twitter.com/5HJraNGK87
- Al Jazeera Mubasher (@ajmubasher) July 6, 2021
Second: Technical, hydraulic and environmental repercussions
On the technical repercussions of military action, the Egyptian academic Mohamed Hafez, professor of dams and ports engineering, presented the following points to Al Jazeera Net:
Egypt is technically capable of turning the concrete dam into dust and not just damaging it.
Given the nature of the dam's location and the course of the far military action, the strike would not be a "picnic", but a long-term war.
In the event that the (concrete) dam is not hit and preserved so as not to cause the Sudanese Roseires dam to sink (about 20 km from the Renaissance Dam), then we will talk specifically about hitting the power stations.
Hitting the power stations is a valuable enough target to disrupt the dam for nearly 5 years.
The inclusion of the military operation, the destruction of the Serj Dam represents a very painful blow to Ethiopia without exposing the Roseires Dam or Sudan to any risks.
It is unlikely that Ethiopia would resort to the threats of the 1970s to divert the river to its estuary into the Red Sea.
From a purely technical point of view, the Blue Nile descends towards the northwest towards the Sudanese border, and changing this slope to flow into the Red Sea needs reconfiguring the topography of the universe, and this is something that only God can do.
Before thinking about any military action, the Sudanese dams must be secured first, then the High Dam.
The completion of the second filling implicitly means storing about 7.5 billion cubic meters in front of the Renaissance Dam, and if its structure is subjected to a military operation, half of this stock will accumulate in the Roseires Dam lake over a period of 6 hours from the moment of its collapse.
The capacity of the Roseires dam openings does not exceed 45 million cubic meters per hour, and it will have flows equivalent to about 500 million cubic meters per hour, more than 10 times its capacity to drain.
Then the water will flood the sides of the earthen dam of Roseires and wipe it off the face of the earth as if it had never existed.
Then the reservoir of Lake Roseires is added above the reservoir of the Renaissance Dam, and the people of cities and villages located on the shore of the Blue Nile are drowned by a wave whose height will not be less than 10 meters and for a period of 3-5 hours until the level gradually decreases.
Third: international reactions ردود
Abdullah Al-Ashaal, Professor of International Law and the former Assistant Foreign Minister of Egypt, spoke to Al Jazeera Net, stressing the following points:
A military strike on the Renaissance Dam is imminent, and it is Ethiopia that is imposing military action, as it has left no alternative but to resort to it.
If the dam is not struck and Egypt saved, the political regime and the Egyptian president will lose their legitimacy.
Egyptian society is vulnerable to destruction, and whatever the consequences of military action, such as international sanctions, will not be the result of Egypt's disappearance from the map.
Egypt will defend its survival according to the principle of legitimate self-defense, after it has knocked on all doors.
We take Sisi's threat to those who undermine Egypt's water rights seriously.
The assault on the Egyptian right to the Nile waters opens the door to an Egyptian failure on the African continent.
The political settlement ended after the "collusion" of the African Union in favor of Ethiopia.
A new angry tone from #Sisi coincided with the #RenaissanceDam negotiations reaching a dead end and the Ethiopian side's insistence on imposing a fait accompli pic.twitter.com/90fUVMnhwx
— Al Jazeera Egypt (@AJA_Egypt) March 30, 2021
The Egyptian academic and researcher in political science, Muhammad Al-Zawawi, agrees with many of what Ambassador Abdullah Al-Ashal put forward.
I expect that Egypt will not carry out a direct comprehensive and destructive strike on the dam, but rather direct surgical strikes on selected targets in the body of the dam, to force Addis Ababa to return to negotiations.
This time, Cairo will be in a position of strength, especially if Egypt takes all legal paths and informs the major countries of its moves in advance.
The option of Ethiopia's peaceful submission to the Egyptian demands remains the best for all.
The repercussions of the military strike on Egypt are almost negligible.
Ethiopia is a fragile state, and its army has proven its abject failure in internal wars, as well as foreign wars, and history has proven that it uses local militias for the federal regions, and that it is poorly armed, trained and equipped.
The Ethiopian army will not be able to launch any effective retaliatory strikes against Egypt or Sudan except to move its militias - especially in the Amhara region - to cause skirmishes with Sudan.
Egypt has one of the most powerful air defenses in the world by combining western and eastern weapons, and therefore Ethiopia cannot reach vital Egyptian targets.
There remains the possibility that Ethiopia will carry out sabotage operations against fragile Egyptian targets - whether embassies or consulates - similar to the operations of jihadist organizations through its militias, which it does not recognize in most cases and says that it is outside the authority of the state, as happened in the Sudanese region of Al-Fashqa repeatedly.
In the event that it takes these measures, this will lead to further isolation of the Ethiopian regime, in light of its violations and war crimes against the Tigrayans, and facing mounting criticism from international human rights organizations.
In the event that Egypt proves that a serious and irreversible harm has occurred against it, this gives it the right to legitimate self-defense in accordance with international law, and thus makes it escape the possibility of imposing sanctions on it.
Egypt's relationship with friendly countries will not be affected after a military action against the dam if Cairo works to preserve the interests and investments of those countries, whether Arab or foreign.
Fourth: The situation in Africa
With regard to the African side, the Nigerian researcher specializing in African affairs, Hakim Najmuddin, stressed in his speech to Al Jazeera Net the following points:
Hitting the dam will not take place seriously, because its destruction - whether by an Egyptian air raid or by soldiers and mercenaries - will automatically mean the outbreak of a military confrontation in an already volatile region.
The strike of the dam will affect the neighboring areas of Benishangul-Gumz, only 15 kilometers from the border with Sudan.
As for the position of the African Union: It is possible that several African countries, especially from sub-Saharan Africa, are aligned behind Ethiopia.
However, the situation of the Ethiopian government does not bode well at the present time, due to its crises with some regions, including Tigray, and its dispute with some of its neighbors, including Sudan.
Many African countries are still not convinced by Egypt's view on the issue of the dam, but rather consider it a crucial project for Ethiopia's development agenda, despite stressing the need for a peaceful solution.
It would be wrong to consider the silence of many of these countries as lining up behind Egypt or not taking a specific position.
Ethiopia has made great progress in promoting the issue as African, and therefore it must be resolved through African mechanisms, and that the statement of the League of Arab States and Egypt's dragging of the issue to the UN Security Council indicate that Egypt ignores the rights of other countries in the Nile Basin.
The possible Ethiopian response: Given the possibility of exploiting the clashes in some Sudanese areas and Ethiopia’s experiences in expanding its combat capabilities, Sudan may be the most affected by the strikes, due to the direction of the flood to the north as a result of the destruction.
As for the Ethiopian interior, most Ethiopians still cherish the dam project despite their differences, and thus striking it may lead to the unification of internal ranks.