It was mid-February when Lothar Wieler saw Germany “on the right track” in the Corona crisis.

At least “all in all,” as the President of the Robert Koch Institute noted.

After the number of infections had reached an inglorious high around the turn of the year, they fell steadily at that time.

Jens Spahn, the Federal Minister of Health from the CDU, also rated the situation as "encouraging".

But then the British mutant caused the mood to darken again immediately.

This variant, now simply called Alpha, was significantly more contagious than the wild type that was still predominant at the time.

The federal and state governments took action against it much too timidly.

The number of infections rose rapidly before finally falling again after grueling weeks of lockdown and initially excruciatingly slow vaccination.

Are you okay now?

Not at all.

Half a million syringes a day

Because hardly that Germany was preparing for a “really good summer”, as Health Minister Spahn promised, Delta was at the door.

So the variant that was first discovered in India.

Delta is once again considered to be more contagious, and people who have only been vaccinated once are not as well protected from infection as other variants.

That's where things get tricky.

Because while the country is treating itself to a really good summer, with record-breaking busy shopping streets, fully booked beer gardens and a Munich football stadium filled with a relatively large number of fans, the question remains how long this will continue.

At the moment just under 40 percent of citizens are fully vaccinated.

One could take note of this number in a relaxed manner, if there were not concerns that Delta could be the dominant variant as early as July.

Certainly the vaccination campaign will continue to advance at an acceptable pace in the coming weeks.

But it is questionable whether it will win the race against the infectious Delta variant.

On average, almost half a million syringes were used nationwide every day in June.

If you continue to assume this speed, from now on it will take a little more than 70 days before the so-called herd immunity is achieved, i.e. a proportion of at least 80 percent fully vaccinated under delta conditions.

That would be sometime in early September.

Whether this Corona timetable is realistic depends on a number of factors.

Experience shows that not every vaccine delivery that has been promised arrives.

Excessive bureaucracy has slowed down the vaccination campaign more than once.

Above all, however, it is currently not foreseeable whether 80 percent of Germans will ultimately want to be vaccinated, especially since the Standing Vaccination Commission does not currently recommend vaccination for children and adolescents between the ages of twelve and 16 and many parents are unsettled.

Spahn has just proclaimed a "new phase of the pandemic" in which there is already more vaccine available in the region than is used by the citizens.

Refusing a vaccination has to come at a price

So that there are no further restrictions in autumn, as many people as possible need to be vaccinated.

And twice, as we now know in the case of Delta.

Right now it is important to convince those who are undecided and those who are not vaccinated about the importance of vaccination.

Because especially elderly and pre-ill people can still get sick despite complete vaccination protection, albeit rarely and usually not so seriously.

Each additional vaccinee makes it more difficult for the virus to find new victims.

Therefore the question of vaccination status is not only of concern for the individual.

Because most politicians from the federal and state governments reject compulsory vaccination, they should set an example at an early stage.

A small decision-making aid for those who don't like vaccinations could be the clear stipulation that this autumn and winter only those who have been vaccinated, recovered or tested may enter the interiors of restaurants and attend cinema and theater performances.

Everyone is free to refuse the vaccination.

But in such a crisis this freedom must have a price.

Because the number of test sites is likely to decrease again soon, the hurdles for unvaccinated people rise automatically.

So if television instead of opera, delivery service instead of restaurant and fridge beer instead of freshly tapped beer is too big a sacrifice, you know what to do.

And if incorrigible people criticize this once again as paternalism, even as an alleged portent of a new dictatorship, then let them moan.

The important thing is that it can be a really good autumn for most people.