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By Tiziana Di Giovannandrea

04 July 2021 The EU Commission will give its report cards to partners on growth and inflation on Wednesday. Prime Minister

Mario Draghi

, a few days ago underlined how "the current forecasts of the Commission indicate an increase in GDP this year in Italy and in the European Union of 4.2%. I believe that these estimates will be revised upwards, even significantly ".



Therefore, we are moving towards a growth of 5%, but perhaps even more: Italy is very optimistic about the GDP trend for 2021, comforted by good macroeconomic data such as business confidence, consumption, production, exports, investments. The Italian GDP is also seen on the rise by the main international organizations. 



The ECB at the moment seems intent on not touching the monetary leverage by keeping the cost of money in the Eurozone at a minimum. The unknown factor, however, is the reappearance of inflation at a global level which could push central banks to take action (currently officially excluded) to calm the trend in post-pandemic consumer prices. But, economists argue, the effect would be entirely momentary.



The Minister of Economy,

Daniele Franco

is of the same opinion on GDP and on the potential growth indicated as the first Recovery funds begin to arrive and to march on reforms. The Bank of Italy expects the beneficial effect on growth of the measures envisaged by the NRP to be 2 points over the next 3 years.



National and international forecasting bodies also see the economic situation positively: it ranges from + 4.7% assumed by Istat, to + 4.8% by Fitch. Economic Development Minister 

Giancarlo

Giorgetti

underlines: "The goal could be reached, but only at the end of 2022 will we return to pre-crisis levels".



The leader of the industrialists

Carlo Bonomi

, asserts: "I believe that the conditions are in place for a small economic miracle, but not a very small one. We are very optimistic: I believe that we will break through a 5% increase in GDP". More technically, Istat assumes that "in the two-year period 2021-22 the increase in GDP will be determined by domestic demand net of stocks (respectively +4.6 and +4.5 percentage points) driven by investments (+ 10.9% and + 8.7%) and, with a lower but significant intensity, by the expenditure of families and private social institutions serving families (+ 3.6% and + 4.7%) ".



Christine Lagarde

, president of the ECB on inflation specified: "Inflation? Has risen in recent months and is likely to increase again in the autumn but largely due to temporary factors". And the state does not need interventions. For the ECB, a very accommodative stance of monetary policy is still needed.



Jamie Dimon

, president and CEO of JP Morgan, the largest bank in the United States, visiting Milan for the inauguration of a new office, in an interview with Il Sole24Ore said: Italy? "I believe this is the right time to have confidence and invest in your country."