It is in a way logical that Ulf Kristersson gets the first exploration assignment.
The Speaker refers to the fact that Kristersson represents the largest party in the coalition that deposed Löfven.
The problem for Ulf Kristersson, however, is that the coalition of parties that ousted Löfven does not agree at all on what should happen now.
The Left Party, which was pushing with its threat of no confidence, admittedly voted to remove Stefan Löfven last week, but now says that the party wants him back as prime minister.
This means that Ulf Kristersson can gather 174 seats (M, KD, SD, L) behind his candidacy and that is not enough in a Riksdag with 349 members.
Mathematically, there are 175 members (S, V, MP, C) who are prepared to press red to stop him from becoming prime minister.
Or?
Yes, that's the big question today.
Then Kristersson can become prime minister
Admittedly, most say that in such an important vote, all members of the Riksdag will follow the party line.
In that case, Kristersson will not become prime minister.
But the extremely even situation in the Riksdag still opens the door for Kristersson to actually become Prime Minister.
And there are several different scenarios that could lead him there.
One is the center party member Helena Lindahl, who has flagged that she may go against the party line and release Ulf Kristersson instead of Stefan Löfven.
Should she abstain at the same time as everyone else votes as expected, Kristersson will be elected.
Then only 174 members vote no to Kristersson and that is not enough.
In order for him to be stopped as prime minister, 175 no-votes are required.
Another is the Social Democrat Sara Heikkinen Breitholtz, who has not participated in the work of the Riksdag in the past six months.
Should she not appear in a prime ministerial vote, there is also no majority to stop Kristersson.
According to SVT's experience, the Social Democrats do not dare to hope that she will show up.
The plan is in such a situation that Minister of Rural Affairs Jennie Nilsson quickly resigns and takes back her seat in the Riksdag.
Sara Heikkinen Breitholtz is a replacement for Jennie Nilsson and if she regains her seat in the Riksdag, Heikkinen Breitholtz will leave the Riksdag.
Then Jennie Nilsson can participate in the vote to complete the party line in this vote.
However, expect that the political opponents in the Riksdag would strongly criticize such an approach.
Split L can stop
In addition to these two scenarios, there are several other possible situations where Ulf Kristersson can become Prime Minister despite the disadvantage in the distribution of seats. Drumming 349 individuals into one meeting in a short time is never easy. Coincidences can determine. Someone can suddenly become ill, get stuck in traffic or in an elevator, things that normally play less of a role but can have far-reaching consequences for a prime ministerial vote. The political savages who are also in the Riksdag are another factor of uncertainty.
But conversely, there are also things that can make it difficult for Ulf Kristersson in his ambitions to become prime minister. The Liberals, for example, have recently changed their position on the government issue and are now advocating a moderate-led government. But the party is divided on the issue and several liberal members of parliament have harshly criticized the decision to release a government that cooperates with the Sweden Democrats. Thus, in theory, a situation may arise where one or more liberals go against the party line and vote against Ulf Kristersson.
Whether it goes as far as a prime ministerial vote is, however, still unclear. Ulf Kristersson has been given three days to probe the conditions for forming a government. He shall then report back to the President. The moderate leader can then request additional probing time or say that he is ready. He must then report what support he has for his candidacy. The President then decides whether he will be tried in a prime ministerial vote, which in that case can take place as early as Monday next week.