Well, summer is hot, of course we know that and we prepare for it every year, but what is happening now is not summer as we used to know, but something else is different!
You must feel that, during the past few weeks, temperatures in many countries of the Arab world have crossed the 40 and 50 degrees Celsius barrier, and the matter continues day after day, and it seems that it will not stop, and the question that is pressing in its head here is: What is happening, guys? ?
Several weeks ago, NASA released a new map (1) based on the Goddard Earth Observing System model, GEOS.
The map depicts air temperatures at a height of two meters above the surface of the earth, and shows the Arab world, in most of its regions, in dark red, in reference to a massive heat wave that exceeds the limits of the averages known to the region for years.
In the same context, local ground stations recorded temperatures exceeding 50 degrees Celsius in at least three countries in the Arab world, Kuwait, Oman and the United Arab Emirates, where the temperature in Sweihan in the UAE reached 51.8 degrees Celsius on June 6, 2021, which is the highest A temperature recorded in the country for the month of June in general, but the matter is not exclusive to the Arab world, as the whole world - it seems - is currently burning.
News reports said several regions in Central and Southern Asia experienced unusually high temperatures during this time of year.
In Moscow, for example, the current June is the hottest since 1901, to the point that the cold Siberian plains to death recorded temperatures that reached 47.8 degrees Celsius, while the Helsinki region in Finland reached 31.7 degrees Celsius, it may seem to you a normal number, But it is exceptional for that area. (2)
As for the United States of America (3), the severe heat wave sweeping the west of the country seems not to stop soon, and it is expected that more than 40 million people will suffer from temperatures up to 40 degrees Celsius, which creates dangerous conditions amid the worst drought in the region in history. the talk.
In Canada, north (4), the highest temperature ever was recorded after the temperature in a village in British Columbia reached 46.1 degrees Celsius a few days ago, and the temperature in several cities exceeded its records.
In this context, a statement issued by the US Space and Aviation Agency (5) stated that what is happening in the Arab world is specifically related to a phenomenon called “heat dome”, and it seems to have a share in its name, as it means that an area of high atmospheric pressure proves itself over an area on the ground as the lid is attached to a pot, in which case the warm air is trapped as it rises and the dome pushes it back toward the surface to become warmer, rising little by little, just as when the pot is closed.
Research (6) by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) shows that this phenomenon is likely to form intensely during La Niña years such as 2021, which is what happened in an earlier heat wave during July and August of 2015.
La Niña is a phenomenon (7) that includes a periodic change in wind patterns and temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, where the southern regions of the Pacific Ocean (off the coast of South America) usually go through two climatic phases, the phase in which the water warms, and is known as “El Niña”. And the stage in which cooling occurs, and is known as “La Niña”, and both periods last for several months, and usually occur every several years with different intensity for each period, and they affect the weather of the whole world (in the attached design, watch the size of the hot winds in the case of La Niña, and heading towards our Arab world).
But all of the above comes in a broader context.
Several months ago (8) researchers from the US Space and Aviation Agency (NASA) announced that a recent analysis of average temperature, which took readings from 26,000 places around the world, stated that the year 2020 was the hottest year by a difference of more than 1.2 degrees Celsius than the average recorded since it began. This kind of measurements were made about a century and a half ago, which indicates that global warming is still continuing in an accelerating pattern, and it seems that it will not stop soon.
These results came to raise 2020 with a very slight difference from 2016, the previous record holder, and because of the smallness of this difference, with the degree of uncertainty in this type of measurements, this year - in any case - falls with 2016 and 2019 as the hottest years in the history of measurement In fact, the last seven years are basically the hottest years in the entire measurement history.
As for the proportion of carbon dioxide (9) in the atmosphere, it was also accelerating during the previous seventeen years, and by the end of 2016 it crossed the 400 parts per million (ppm) barrier for the first time in our human history, that is, four hundred thousand years ago!
Carbon dioxide is simply the greenhouse gas that our cars and factories emit.
Some people imagine that an increase in average temperatures by a degree or a degree and a half is not a big thing. There is no difference, for example, between Cairo, Dubai or Rabat recording 36 degrees after it was 35, isn't it?
This understanding of climate change does not in any way express the truth, because this rise does not only mean that temperatures will rise above average, but also means a rise in the rates and severity of extremes and climatic anomalies such as the heat waves we are experiencing now, cold waves, or very severe hurricanes.
To understand the idea, let us consider a study published about two years ago in the journal Science Advances, which links the rapid rise of 0.5 degrees Celsius in average temperatures in India during the period between 1960-2009, and the high rates of heat waves that hit the country. 25%-50% more than the 25 years prior to that period, by region.
This map from the Climate Center at the University of Maine shows that the Arab world, on June 28, is still at the center of the global heat wave, with temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius.
For the Arab world, this is unfortunately what is actually happening. Consider, for example, that study (11) which was published last March in the prestigious “Nature” journal on global climate forecasts. The study indicates a significant intensification of high temperatures during the summer in the Middle East and North Africa, and it is expected that in the second half of this century, extremely intense and unprecedented heat waves will appear, including temperatures of 56 degrees Celsius or higher and lasting for long periods (several weeks), and frequently.
These results are confirmed by another study (12) in the journal "PLOS One", issued in November 2020, which says that 80% of the cities of our region will face, by the end of this century, heat waves in at least 50% of the days of the year, the study expects Also, assuming no intervention through climate adaptation and mitigation strategies, these results, along with the specific characteristics of the Middle East and North Africa region, such as drought or lack of rainfall, make the region likely to experience epidemics or famines.
This is not new in any case, as recent data records an increase in the probability (13) of deaths related to heat waves up to 146% in countries that are exposed to a greater number of such waves, such as India and Pakistan, these areas have already entered the range of what we know as "Killer heat waves", which means that more than 100 people died due to the heat wave.
On the other hand, the measurement of (14) high rates of heat stress in 44 out of 101 giant cities in the world, those with a population of more than 10 million people such as New Delhi or Cairo, indicates that the increase in average temperatures only by 1.5 A degree that causes heat stress to double each year, and is thought to expose an additional 350 million people to heat-related medical problems by 2050.
In addition, there is another climatic monster that we did not consider, and we suffer from it these days as well, while the heat wave hits us, which is humidity, whose averages are rising at rapid rates, which prompted scientists (15) to expect that the number of days of high humidity by the year 2070 will reach 100-250 days each year, with expectations that humidity limits in South America, Africa, India and China will reach levels that already affect human health directly and prevent them from performing their jobs.
We already know that extreme temperatures contribute directly to deaths from cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. For example, more than 70,000 additional deaths were recorded during the heat wave that occurred in the summer of 2003 in the continent of Europe, and according to the statements of the World Health Organization (16), climate change is expected to cause about 250,000 additional deaths in the period between 2030-2050 annually due to malnutrition, malaria, diarrhea and heat stress.
This comes along with a scope of research that indicates a clear link between climate change, especially the increase in the severity of heat waves, and the spread of violence in many countries, either through the direct link linking rising temperatures with a corresponding increase in rates of anger and loss of control, which is not confirmed. Yet, or through an indirect link between climate change and the disruption of basic resources on which humans depend, such as agricultural crops, fish quantities or available water, which necessarily causes local and international armed conflicts over resources that become more scarce day by day (17).
The high frequency and severity of heat waves affects the economies of countries in a severe way, starting from the main effects related to food security and national security, to the direct effects on water and electricity. Let us, for example, consider the rise in temperatures in Iran (18) during the month of June 2018, when it recorded In some regions, temperatures approach 53 degrees Celsius (it is happening now as well), and how this directly affected the consumption of water and electricity in the country, which led to their interruption.
Rising temperatures are causing an increase in electricity consumption by 150-200 megawatts for each degree of rise, and as a result, it is not surprising that Iran recorded in just one day in June of the same year an electric power withdrawal amounting to 56,672 megawatts, which is a historical figure!
Everything is affected by temperature and climate change, however, when a scientist goes out to a conference to talk about climate change, we look away from excessive boredom, we imagine - while we are sitting at home - that this talk is just cold science that has nothing to do with our reality, and we ignore or forget Climate affects everything, from the price of your smartphone, the grains of rice you will have for lunch, the illness of a relative, the quality of the air you breathe, to the chance of a glass of fresh water reaching your mouth in a moment of extreme thirst.
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Sources
Heatwave Scorches the Middle East
Wild High Temperatures Worldwide Show The Extent Of Record June Heat Wave
Heat wave worsens across the American West, raising concerns of power outages and wildfires
Canada hits record temperature of 46.1C amid heatwave
Heatwave Scorches the Middle East
What is a heat dome?
Deadly hot weather descends on Pacific Northwest.
What are El Niño and La Niña?
More detail in the "hottest year in history" .. because 2020 was not only the year of the pandemic!
previous source
Increasing probability of mortality during Indian heat waves
Business-as-usual will lead to super and ultra-extreme heatwaves in the Middle East and North Africa
Persistent heat waves projected for Middle East and North Africa by the end of the 21st century
Increasing probability of mortality during Indian heat waves
Communicating the deadly consequences of global warming for human heat stress
Humidity may prove breaking point for some areas as temperatures rise, says study
Climate change and health
How does climate change contribute to the spread of violent phenomena?
53 And Counting!
Heat Wave Breaks Records In Iran, Across The Caucasus