Analysis: "Löfven has the greatest chance of returning as Prime Minister"

S / MP government released by C and V - most likely outcome

This constellation of government is Stefan Löfven's main track and the most likely outcome of the presidential rounds.

Here, Löfven can collect 175 seats, ie a majority in the Riksdag.

If this maneuver is to succeed, he must also resolve the issue of the Left Party's influence.

The Center Party has said no to an organized collaboration with the Left Party.

Ultimately, it is a matter of the Left Party in a budget vote must be prepared to vote yes to the government's budget so that it does not fall in the Riksdag.

Here, therefore, Löfven must be prepared to compensate the Left Party politically in a way that is accepted by the Center Party.

A difficult equation, given the Center Party's fierce opposition.

M / KD government with the support of SD and L - possible outcome

Such a government has, with the current distribution of seats, the support of 174 seats in the Riksdag.

That is not enough.

But given that there is only one mandate missing, it can still go the way.

A center-right party member, Helena Lindahl, has also spoken in a way that can be interpreted as meaning that she can be prepared to support the moderate leader Ulf Kristersson as prime minister.

If she votes in this way in a prime ministerial vote, Ulf Kristersson can be appointed.

There is thus a theoretical possibility for Kristersson to be elected.

On the other hand, the party whip learns to win in a vote of this kind, which means that Kristersson may not have to hope too much.

"Central government" - unlikely outcome

The Center Party's first choice is what Annie Lööf usually calls a broad center-right government that includes the Moderates and the Social Democrats.

Other parties that could be part of such a government are, for example, the Center Party and the Liberals.

No matter what, such a government is not very realistic today.

Neither M nor S want to sit in the same government.

Both parties believe that this can only happen in a national crisis situation.

There is great concern that such a coalition would lead to parties such as the Left Party and the Sweden Democrats growing strongly.

S / V / MP government - unlikely outcome

V leader Nooshi Dadgostar sometimes sounds like there is a government alternative on the left.

The problem for her is that there is no support for this in the Riksdag.

The S / V / MP collects only 144 seats, which is not enough to form a government.

An S / V / MP government thus needs the support of additional parties, which is not likely.

M / KD / L / C government - unlikely outcome

An alliance government.

Does not collect enough seats in the Riksdag to be able to take office.

With 143 seats, it would also have difficulty getting its budget through the Riksdag.

The Center Party's opposition to taking support from the Sweden Democrats also means that this government constellation is unrealistic.

In addition, M / KD is instead focused on a government that can take the support of SD and L.

S / M government - unlikely outcome

Collects 170 seats and could be released if another party votes yellow.

However, not realistic in the current situation.

S and M do not want to rule together, especially not when only one year remains until the next ordinary parliamentary election.

S-government - unlikely outcome

A pure S-government is sometimes brought forward in the debate.

Could rule with jumping majorities for a limited time.

However, the political situation makes such a government unrealistic in the current situation, unless it builds a permanent partnership with other parties.

But this is also not likely given that the next ordinary parliamentary election will take place on 11 September 2022, which means that the parliamentary parties are moderately interested in compromises that give power to another party.

Four failed presidential rounds - possible outcome

If the Speaker fails four times to get a prime ministerial candidate approved by the Riksdag, a by-election is automatically triggered. The extra choice that Stefan Löfven is now trying to avoid then becomes a fact. This is an alternative that several parties do not want, which may make it easier for Stefan Löfven to return as Prime Minister.