Paris (AFP)

Will the Airbus-Boeing duopoly have to make room for the newcomer Comac?

The rise of China in the very strategic aeronautics sector, for which it represents the world's largest market, is leading Europeans and Americans to close ranks.

The United States and the European Union on Tuesday suspended for five years the punitive customs duties they inflict on themselves in the context of the old conflict between them on public aid to their aircraft manufacturers.

According to US President Joe Biden, it is about "working together to challenge and counter China's non-commercial practices in the (aeronautics) sector, which give Chinese companies an unfair advantage".

In the background, Beijing's frantic efforts to bring out its national aircraft manufacturer Comac (Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China).

This is developing a twin-jet, the C919, intended to compete with the A320 and B737.

After four years of flight tests, Comac expects to obtain certification for the C919 in China this year, in time to commemorate the centenary of the founding of the Chinese Communist Party.

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The aircraft has received between $ 49 billion and $ 72 billion in public subsidies for its development, far more than the aid that Airbus and Boeing were able to receive, according to calculations by Scott Kennedy, a specialist in China at the International Center for Strategic Studies (CSIS).

For Richard Aboulafia, aeronautical expert for Teal Group, "the real problem is that China is manipulating the market by playing Airbus and Boeing against each other and conditioning its orders on technology transfers".

Chinese air traffic, which has exploded and recovered faster than other regions from the health crisis, is set to strengthen further.

Boeing estimates the only needs of the Chinese market over the next 20 years at 9,360 aircraft, or 20% of the needs for new aircraft in the world.

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A major outlet for Airbus A320s and Boeing's 737 MAX, while the latter has still not obtained authorization to return the aircraft in flight in Chinese skies.

- Strategic patience -

If Beijing can not do without Boeing or Airbus for the moment, it ultimately intends to be master of its destiny.

"The aeronautical industry is both an instrument of growth and a diplomatic and commercial tool which allows them to have a very comprehensive foreign policy on foreign markets", observes Michel Merluzeau, of the specialized firm AIR.

And for him, "the Chinese have the technological and industrial skills to produce an aircraft, there is no doubt about it".

"The Chinese have ambition, they are very reasonable, they know that it takes time," he told AFP: "it is not in 2025 that they want to do battle with Airbus and Boeing ".

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The C919 is dependent on cooperation with European and American manufacturers: out of the 82 main equipment manufacturers of the device, 14 are Chinese, seven of which are joint ventures with a foreign company, Mr. Kennedy said.

The wings and fuselage are Chinese, but domestic companies do not yet master the engines or avionics and Comac suffers from its bureaucratic organization.

But it will come, assures Michel Merluzeau.

"They are preparing their industry to meet national needs. It will be inferior products, but at least they will be national," said AFP Richard Aboulafia.

Heavier, the device consumes more fuel and will therefore cost more to operate.

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Under the impetus of the government, Comac prides itself on having recorded 815 orders for its C919, almost all from Chinese companies.

But for the most part these are only intentions: China Eastern Airlines was the first company in March to place a firm order for five aircraft.

Professor at the Beihang Aeronautical University in Beijing, Huang Jun "does not think that (the C919) is a game-changer" vis-à-vis Western aircraft manufacturers but will contribute to the emergence of an "ABC model Airbus, Boeing and Comac ":" we just hope to be able to join this market and occupy a certain part of it ".

Both Boeing and Airbus bosses are preparing for it.

Comac "will gradually become a player worthy of the name", recently estimated the president of European manufacturer Guillaume Faury.

"We will therefore probably go from a duopoly to a + triopoly +, at least on the single-aisle, by the end of the decade".

© 2021 AFP