It came as it was expected after the radical preselection of candidates by the Guardian Council: In an election that was neither free nor fair, the hardliner Ebrahim Raisi, who is on the sanctions list of both the EU and the United States for human rights violations, is big Has been elected as the new Iranian President.
In this way, the hardliners control all elected and unelected institutions of the Islamic Republic, and they can implement all of their projects, both internally and in foreign policy, without friction losses and without opposition.
This suggests that major changes are pending in the Islamic Republic, such as the succession plan for the 82-year-old revolutionary leader Khamenei.
This election does not bode well for foreign policy.
Because the window for an agreement in the Vienna nuclear negotiations will close in the coming weeks.
Raisi has stated that he would not challenge the reinstatement of the nuclear deal.
However, verification of the agreed measures would be difficult under him.
The Middle East is threatened with even sharper tensions
However, if there is no agreement on a new agreement by the end of July, Iran would push ahead with its nuclear program, which can no longer be stopped, with all its might. Since many conflicts in the Middle East are related to Iran and their settlement requires a new nuclear deal, tensions in the region could rise again - be it in the Persian Gulf with neighboring Saudi Arabia or in the Shiite crescent that runs through the Levant to the Mediterranean.
The Janus-headed republic is one again with the election of Raisi. It is true that the hardliners have always controlled the “revolutionary” institutions not elected by the people - from the revolutionary leader to the revolutionary guards to organs such as the council of guards. Whenever voter turnout was high, however, pragmatists, moderates and reformers had a majority in parliament and in the presidential office, which are legitimized by elections. It was of no use to them. Because the unelected institutions define a narrow framework for the chosen one.
With the lowest turnout in all presidential elections since the 1979 revolution, the silent majority has indicated that it wants a different republic. Society has been warned. The new president has repeatedly proven in his bloody biography that he acts against those who think differently with great brutality. Protests would be beaten down again, as last in 2019, when Raisi was still at the head of the judiciary.