The American chief of staff, Mark Milley, assumes that China currently has neither the military capabilities nor the intention to conquer Taiwan.

"I think China is still a long way from developing the real capabilities for a military operation to take the entire island of Taiwan," the senior American soldier told a Senate committee on Thursday.

He also sees no motivation on the part of China to force unification with Taiwan militarily.

"There's no need to do it militarily, and they know that."

Friederike Böge

Political correspondent for China, North Korea and Mongolia.

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    Milley estimated the likelihood of an invasion "in the immediate, near future as low".

    He seemed to contradict warnings of high-ranking American military about a danger of war.

    For example, the now retired commander of the US Pacific Command, Philip Davidson, said in March that "in the next six years" China could try to take Taiwan.

    His successor John Aquilino had said that such an attack was "closer than most think." There have long been calls that the Americans urgently need to increase their deterrent capabilities in the region.

    Almost daily maneuvers with Chinese aircraft

    The reasons for the warnings were, among other things, increased threatening gestures by the Chinese military against Taiwan. Chinese war planes now fly maneuvers almost every day in the immediate vicinity of the island. Statements by Xi Jinping that the issue of unification “should not be passed on from generation to generation” and the clarification that the island are an integral part of his vision of a “re-awakening of the Chinese nation” were interpreted as a threat.

    The goal of "reunification" with Taiwan has been a political consensus in China since 1949. At that time, the communists' opponents of the civil war, the republican troops, had withdrawn to the island of Taiwan, which was then part of China. Beijing has long had the right to militarily force unification in the event that Taiwan declares itself independent or a peaceful union appears impossible, but a war over Taiwan would involve incalculable risks. As part of its policy of “strategic ambiguity”, the United States is keeping open a possible entry into war in defense of Taiwan. In addition, the geography of the island requires an extremely complex landing operation.