The presidential election will be voted on the 18th in Iran, the Middle East.
With anti-American conservative hardliners Raishi predominant, there is a growing prospect that the current Rouhani administration's foreign policy will change, taking a dialogue line with Europe and the United States, such as concluding a nuclear agreement.
Headwind elections for moderate reformers who supported the Rouhani administration
Seven people were running for Iran's presidential election due to the expiration of his term, but a series of decliners declined, and the final stage was anti-American conservative hardliner Raishi, the representative of the judiciary, and former central bank governor Henmaty, a reformist. It is a battle of four people.
In Iran, the former Trump administration of the United States withdrew from the nuclear agreement three years ago and resumed sanctions, and since then the economic deterioration has become serious such as the currency plunge, and the moderates and reformers who supported the Rouhani administration It was a headwind election for us.
In addition, leading candidates in a position to succeed the Rouhani administration have been disqualified one after another in the preliminary examination, and the well-known Islamic law scholar Raishi has taken a big lead in the opinion poll, and the situation is predominant.
In the election campaign, Rev. Raisi said he would "do nothing to lift sanctions," and intends to maintain the nuclear agreement that is currently under indirect talks with the Biden administration to rebuild. is showing.
On the other hand, he emphasizes the idea of not responding to excessive demands, and is expected to approach the United States with a strong stance.
If Rev. Raishi is elected, the anti-US and conservative hardline government will be born for the first time in eight years, and the foreign policy of the Rouhani administration, which has taken a dialogue with Europe and the United States, is expected to change.
On the other hand, with the disqualification of leading candidates and the limited choice of voters, it is expected that more people will abstain from voting, and the turnout related to the prestige of the current Islamic system is also attracting attention.
Ulama is 60 years old Islamic law scholar
The anti-American conservative hardliner Raishi is 60 years old.
An Islamic jurist from eastern Mashad, home to the Shiite sanctuary of Islam.
After holding important positions such as the prosecutor's chief at the judiciary, which plays an important role in maintaining the Islamic system, he was appointed as the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, and became the representative of the judiciary in 2019.
He wore a black turban that was only allowed to be worn by descendants of the Islamic prophet Muhammad, and was once responsible for managing religious institutions in the sanctuary of Mashhad.
As a well-known Islamic law scholar, he has gained support from conservative hardliners such as the religious community, and is said to be one of the successor candidates to the 82-year-old Supreme Leader Khamenei.
Last time, he ran for the presidential election four years ago, but President Rouhani signed a nuclear agreement with Europe and the United States and was re-elected as a result, and Rev. Raishi was defeated.
However, after that, the Iranian economy fell into a difficult situation as the former Trump administration withdrew from the nuclear agreement and resumed sanctions, and in this election campaign, Mr. Raishi severely criticized the Rouhani administration for causing price increases and so on. ..
Regarding the nuclear agreement, which is currently undergoing indirect talks with the Biden administration to rebuild it, Rev. Raisi said, "I will not waste any time to lift sanctions," as long as it plays a necessary role in economic recovery. , Intention to maintain agreement.
On top of that, he also states that he will not respond to excessive demands from the United States, saying that "the nuclear agreement will not be used as a means of extortion by the United States."
Meanwhile, the U.S. government said that in 1988, as an executive of the judiciary, Rev. Raishi ordered many political prisoners to execute the death penalty without going through judicial proceedings, and in 2009 he was involved in the crackdown on anti-government demonstrations. It is subject to sanctions.
If the expert Raishi is elected, "the gap with Europe and the United States will expand"
Professor Koichiro Tanaka of Keio University, who is familiar with the situation in Iran, said that the superiority of the conservative hardliner Raishi was unwavering in the election situation, and there were a series of influential moderate and reformist candidates in the preliminary qualification examination. "I feel like I want to make Raishi win whatever he wants. The supreme leader, Hamenei, is 82 years old and will take over the position somewhere. Raishi will take over the position in 2017. He has been defeated in the election and is trying to win the presidential election and prepare the conditions for a recommendation to be the supreme leader, so it is not that the opponent who could jeopardize the victory of Rev. Raishi did not qualify for the candidacy. I analyzed it.
On top of that, many voters abstained from voting and the turnout was high, saying, "Rather than who wins, is this election legitimate in the first place, or more specifically, the legitimacy of the system may be shaken." If it goes down, the legitimacy of the Islamic system could be questioned.
On the other hand, regarding diplomacy when conservative hardliner Raishi becomes president, he said, "Iran wants to lift sanctions through a nuclear agreement," and is currently proceeding with the United States. Indirect talks to rebuild the nuclear agreement will not be interrupted immediately.
On top of that, he said, "Since Mr. Raishi has cracked down on opposition parties and rebels in the judiciary, there is a big cross from Western countries. The gap with Iran will be even greater." He pointed out that if Rev. Raisi, who is also subject to sanctions, becomes president, relations between the two countries will deteriorate.
Leading candidates for moderates and reformers disqualified one after another
In this election, leading candidates of moderate and reformers were disqualified one after another in the preliminary examination of candidates, which had a decisive influence on the election campaign.
In Iran's elections, the "Constitutional Council" made up of Islamic law scholars will examine candidates' qualifications under conditions such as "Islamic system loyal?"
This time, 592 people filed candidacy, but only seven were accepted, including former chairman Larijani, who is close to the Rouhani administration, and Vice President Jahangiri, who has supported the administration. However, he was disqualified without revealing the reason.
President Hassan Rouhani made an unusual criticism of the unprecedentedly rigorous screening, saying that "the uncompetitive elections are over."
In addition, the Iranian media also reported that the conservative hard-liner Raishi had an overwhelmingly advantageous composition, saying that he had no rivals.
On SNS, some people called for a boycott of voting, and a 33-year-old man living in Tehran said, "I don't go to vote this time because I have no choice and there is a problem with the election system. There is no such thing, "he said, expressing his dissatisfaction.
The Constitutional Council, which conducted the examination, is an organization in which the Supreme Leader Khamenei has a strong influence, and diplomatic officials familiar with the Iranian election said, "It seems to be a narrowing down to win the Supreme Leader. The Supreme Leader is already 80. Considering that he is older than his age, it may be a stepping stone to make Rev. Raishi a successor. "
Voter "The race is not good for the people"
In this Iran presidential election, several leading candidates were disqualified in the preliminary qualification examination, and the conservative hardliner Raishi is leading the poll.
Voters were less interested, and those who decided to abstain from voting also expressed dissatisfaction with the electoral system and distrust of politics.
Of these, Parbaz (43), who runs a bookstore near a university in the capital Tehran, decided not to vote this time and said, "The candidate I am interested in was disqualified in the preliminary examination, and no one wants to vote now. I don't know. Everyone just promises. "
On top of that, he expressed his disappointment, saying, "The result of the election has been decided from the beginning. A race that is not based on the ability of the candidate will not benefit the people and we cannot hope for a good future."
Many of the students who visit the bookstore are indifferent to the elections, saying, "Young people can't even dream of getting married or having a house because of the worsening economic situation. Will get worse and there will be no hope for the future. "
US-Iran Relations Recent History
[Nuclear Agreement Welcomed by the World] In
return for Iran's restrictions on nuclear development, the international community will lift sanctions, which was signed between Iran and Europe, the United States, China, and Russia in 2015. ..
The international community welcomed the agreement aimed at keeping Iran from possessing nuclear weapons.
[Agreement suspended due to the inauguration of the Trump administration]
After that, the content was insufficient when the Trump administration was inaugurated in the United States, and in 2018, withdrawal from the agreement and resuming sanctions on Iran, embargoing Iranian crude oil, and financing with Iran. I banned transactions.
The Iranian economy has been severely affected, with the value of local currencies plummeting to one in six in the last four years as countries, including Europe, refrained from doing business with Iran for fear of being subject to U.S. sanctions. I will.
[Iran's side is also taking countermeasures one after another]
As a countermeasure against this sanction, Iran is embarking on strengthening uranium enrichment activities in the form of breaking the nuclear agreement.
The enrichment of uranium has exceeded the upper limit of 3.67% and has reached 60%, which is close to the production of nuclear weapons, and the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) has announced that it will stop accepting unannounced inspections.
[Resumption of US-Iran talks] The
Biden administration, which was inaugurated this time, is aiming to return to the Iran nuclear agreement by reviewing the strong policy toward Iran by the former Trump administration.
For this reason, the United States and Iran have been holding indirect discussions in Vienna, the capital of Austria, to rebuild the nuclear agreement through the EU = European Union and other means since early April.
However, while the Iranian side has called for the lifting of all sanctions imposed during the pre-Trump administration, the US side has lifted hundreds of sanctions imposed in the name of "supporting terrorism" and "human rights violations." It shows a policy of not closing the gap between the two.
With the predominance of anti-US and conservative hardliners Raishi in the Iran presidential election, each country initially aimed for a pre-election agreement, but talks are protracted as the gap is not closed.
Second power after Iran's Supreme Leader
After the Islamic Revolution in 1979, Iran has maintained a "political unity" system governed by Islamic jurists with the Supreme Leader at the top.
The president is constitutionally empowered after the Supreme Leader and is positioned as the second most powerful person.
Selected by direct voting by voters over the age of 18, the term of office is four years and can serve up to two consecutive terms and eight years.
As the head of government, the president holds the national budget and formulates economic and foreign policies, but the supreme leader has the final say in overall national affairs, especially in terms of security such as nuclear development and negotiations with the United States. Its authority is limited on important issues.
Nevertheless, the political position of successive presidents has affected relations with the hostile United States and has significantly changed the environment surrounding Iran.
The reformist President Mohammad Khatami, who took office in 1997, advocated "dialogue of civilizations" and sought to improve relations with the United States, which has been in a state of diplomatic relations since the Islamic Revolution.
However, President Ahmadinejad, a conservative hardliner who took office in 2005, sharply confronted the United States due to the promotion of nuclear development, and was subject to sanctions and deepened isolation in the international community.
After that, President Hassan Rouhani, who was appointed in 2013 with the support of moderates and reformers, turned to a dialogue line again, signed a nuclear agreement with the United States and others in 2015, and deepened economic ties with the international community. I did.
However, when the former Trump administration in the United States withdrew from the nuclear agreement and imposed sanctions in 2018, foreign companies withdrew one after another, and the environment surrounding Iran is becoming more severe again.
Foreign Minister Mogi "Continuing diplomatic efforts to ease tensions in the Middle East"
At a press conference after the Cabinet meeting, Foreign Minister Motegi said, "We are watching the presidential election in Iran. No matter which candidate wins, we will strive to further strengthen the bilateral relations between Japan and Iran and with Iran. We would like to continue our active diplomatic efforts to ease tensions and stabilize the situation in the Middle East by making use of traditional friendships. "