"France has had its June 18th, Côte d'Ivoire will have its June 17th!"

In a country where formulas are strong, supporters of former President Laurent Gbagbo do not hesitate to display their revenge on history loud and clear.

After ten years of absence, the former head of state, who was finally acquitted in March 2021 by the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague, carefully choreographed his return to the country.

The Ivorian political landscape could be affected.

The Ivorian Popular Front (FPI), a party created by Laurent Gbagbo, may be divided, it has managed to mobilize nearly 70 delegations across the country to ensure that it is refueled on D-Day. Its secretary general for youth , Nestor Dahi, has been on the road since May 8. "You know that the media do not arrive in the depths of the camps. Social networks are not there. So, we ourselves have to hurry to the populations to explain to them that we want this event to happen. be large, be exceptional and mark the memories of Ivorians and the whole world, "he said on Saturday to Yakasse Attobrou, near Adzope, a hundred kilometers north of Abidjan. For Nestor Dahi, if the expression "return to the country" is on everyone's lips, that of "return to power "is too." The pro-Gbagbo do not wage war. They are not violent but they say what they think ”, explains the person in charge of the youth, who waits impatiently to find his mentor.

Will Laurent Gbagbo go to prison?

In the streets of Abidjan, the opponents of the return also say what they think. For Issiaka Diaby, president of the Collective of victims of Côte d'Ivoire (CVCI), Laurent Gbagbo should be arrested because he is subject to a decision of the Ivorian justice of 2018. The former president was indeed sentenced to 20 years in prison for having illegally opened, in 2011, the coffers of the BCEAO (Central Bank of West African States). But his supporters claim that other banking agencies were also robbed by the New Forces (FN) which held the north of the country, and above all, that at the height of the sanctions against the regime, these funds would have been used to pay civil servants. . "If this money was used to pay the civil servants, come and explain it to us!" Exclaims Issiaka Diaby,which ensures that the decisions of international justice and those of Ivorian justice should not be mixed up.

However, not all victims are of the same opinion.

"This is a minority request. All the associations of victims are unanimous, the case of the breakage of the BCEAO has nothing to do with the victims (of the war)", explains Bruce Touohiri, of the platform of the Associations of victims in Côte d'Ivoire.

So what are the odds for Laurent Gbagbo to serve the 20-year prison sentence decided by the Ivorian Supreme Court?

For Geoffroy Kouaou, political scientist and teacher in public law, they are very weak: "The prosecution, that is to say the prosecution, said that it was part of this dynamic of national reconciliation and that its public actions would take this political will into account. "

If the Ivorian justice does not amnesty, Laurent Gbagbo could also be pardoned by the current president Alassane Ouattara.

In early April, he gave the green light for the return of his former rival, in the name of national reconciliation.

If the date was not chosen by the government, which finally "took note" of the return, it is clear that no one has ever opposed it.

Laurent Gbagbo will arrive in Abidjan on Thursday June 17 at 3:45 p.m. on a regular flight from Brussels.

He will be welcomed at the Presidential Pavilion at Felix-Houphouët-Boigny Airport, where he is expected to deliver a speech within the next hour.

He will then join his former 2010 campaign HQ in Attoban, not far from the 30th arrondissement. 

"We bought bags of rice, you never know what can happen"

If the day promises to be busy, Ivorians are rather relieved that the former president is finally returning home. For many, this return is part of a logic of peace and continuity. According to an Ivorian army official, the police will still be discreetly deployed in the capital, in order to prevent any overflow. In Côte d'Ivoire, we have become accustomed to being careful. "We bought bags of rice that we can keep, in case there are still things going to happen, because you never know," assures Rosine, hairdresser in Yopougon.

It remains to be seen what after June 17 has in store for Ivorians. When the issues of the red carpet, emoluments and personal security of the former head of state are settled, his role in Ivorian politics will arise. Will he or will he not take back the reins of his party, which has been strongly divided since his detention? What position will he adopt vis-à-vis his wife Simone, who at the time played a crucial role alongside him? We know that he comes with his partner, Nady Bamba, who could also have an impact on his political positioning. What role will Pascal Affi N'Guessan, candidate for the Ivorian presidential election on October 31, who led a faction of the FPI opposed to Laurent Gbagbo, play? And what about Charles Blé Goudé, the former leader of the young patriots, also amnestied but whose return is still pending?

So many questions that remain unanswered.

The trio of former heads of state who have been crushing Ivorian political life for 30 years will in any case have to rebuild themselves.

Laurent Gbagbo, Alassane Ouattara and Henri Konan Bédié, allies or rivals depending on the circumstances, will learn to live together again.

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