"I am from all elections, I have always participated, but this time I will not vote." Joined by France 24, Shahin *, 42, expresses his bitterness and his weariness: "President after President, I go from disappointment to disappointment and the economic situation of the country continues to deteriorate. Why would I do it? effort to go to the polls if the one I elect does nothing? " Like this resident of Tehran, many Iranians, disappointed by the two terms of President Hassan Rouhani, intend to shun the presidential election of June 18. The last ballot, the legislative elections of February 2020, had already been marked by a record abstention of more than 57%.
The reasons for this lack of interest? In addition to the high number of presidential candidates disqualified by the Council of Guardians - a body responsible in Iran for monitoring elections - there is the question of the leeway of the President of the Islamic Republic of Iran and his government. A situation about which the Minister of Foreign Affairs himself complained. In a recording that had leaked at the end of April, Mohammad Javad Zarif regretted that a whole strategic part of Iranian diplomacy escaped him on a daily basis.
Heavily criticized for his remarks, the official head of Iranian diplomacy attacked the corps of the Revolutionary Guards in particular.
In Iran, this "force responsible for defending the ideals of the Islamic Republic is accountable only to the Supreme Guide", indicates to France 24 Thierry Coville, researcher at the Institute of International and Strategic Relations (Iris).
At the heart of the Iranian state, the Guide concentrates most of the powers under the Iranian Constitution.
"It is the Guide who determines the direction of the state. The Iranian president, elected every four years, has a role comparable to that of a Prime Minister", explains Jonathan Piron, historian specializing in Iran for the Etopia research center in Brussels.
Elected for life, the Supreme Leader controls the army, the police, the state media and appoints the head of the judicial system.
He is also the one who chooses half of the members of the Council of Guardians, the body responsible for validating presidential candidacies.
The other half being appointed by the judiciary, itself appointed by the Guide.
"There are elements in which Iranian political life is developing, but everything remains centralized around the figure of the Guide of the revolution", underlines the researcher.
Iranian power, a system locked in the hands of the Supreme Guide © Graphic Studio France Médias Monde
Limited room for action in politics, economics and social matters
According to Jonathan Piron, "the president not only has room for maneuver limited by the Supreme Guide, but he is also constrained by Parliament, which must validate the appointment of his ministers and can dismiss them at any time." Iranian parliamentarians also have the power to vote no confidence in the president, with the agreement of the Guide. A hundred elected ultraconservatives tried the coup in July 2020 by proposing to summon Hassan Rouhani, before retracting in the face of the support given by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to the government.
Dispossessed of the fields of security and judicial action, the Iranian president nevertheless has a margin of autonomy with regard to domestic policy, the economy and the social. "The Iranian president is the guarantor of a number of rights and freedoms," said Azadeh Kian, professor of political sociology at Paris Diderot University. For this specialist on Iran, President Hassan Rohani could have, "as guarantor of the Constitution", become more involved in matters of freedom and equality between women and men. "He had promised to create a ministry of women's rights, to appoint women ministers, but he did not do so for lack of courage, too often hiding behind the speech 'The Guide does not want'", estimates the researcher ,who is also director of the Center for teaching, documentation and research for feminist studies (Cedref).
Associated with the current of Iranian "moderates", at the center of the political spectrum, President Hassan Rohani had to exercise his power while taking into account a Parliament in the hands of the conservatives since 2020. The Guide, for his part, is rather renowned for its ultra-conservative positions.
20 to 30% of the economy in the hands of the Guardians
In the economic field, other actors act "informally" and help reduce presidential power, explains Jonathan Piron. "Today, the Revolutionary Guards own many companies, particularly in the construction, transport infrastructure, and airport sectors. They are parastatal, neither public nor private. They escape control. the President of the Islamic Republic as well as tax, and benefit from preferential places during calls for tenders ", details the researcher. "It is believed that they control 20 to 30% of the economy, but the phenomenon remains difficult to quantify because it remains opaque, with many ramifications and companies created at different levels, without traceability."In the social field, the Guardians of the Revolution also have their own "social security", "in an ideological logic, resulting from the Revolution, which is to come to the aid of the most vulnerable".
An ideological army responsible for defending the Islamic Revolution of 1979, the Guardian Corps played a role in the defense of the Islamic Republic after its birth, then during the Iran-Iraq war (1980-1988).
It was deployed from the 1990s only in the economic and social sectors of the Iranian state.
"The 2000s marked their rise to power, after the mandate of Hachemi Rafsanjani, who engaged Iran in a neoliberal policy: the state opened up to private investment with a series of liberalizations and the Pasdarans took advantage of it to slip into the breach ", details Jonathan Piron.
Almighty religious foundations
"In total, more than 50% of the economy escapes the control of the presidential cabinet", indicates the researcher. Because alongside the Guardians are other autonomous institutions, including the Bonyads.
These influential religious foundations manage the goods confiscated after the Revolution, or the billions of euros in donations from Shiite pilgrims, such as the Astan Quds Razavi foundation, manager of the tomb of Imam Reza, in Mashhad. "They have one of the most important real estate assets in the country and partly escape tax," recalls Jonathan Piron. The most powerful of them, the Mostazafan Foundation ("foundation of the disinherited") and the Astan Quds Razavi foundation, manage hundreds of companies and employ several hundred thousand Iranians in very diverse fields such as construction, transport. , mining, tourism and agribusiness.
"Difficult to regulate, these parastatal systems encourage patronage and corruption," said the researcher.
Hassan Rohani and other presidents before him tried to take more money from the Bonyads, who were exempt from taxes before 2002. But the outgoing president was denied admission when he tried to address the issue during his second term, says Jonathan Piron.
The facade of the Iranian state abroad
In terms of foreign policy, the president's team "intervenes from afar".
Mohammad Javad Zarif complained about it recently.
In extracts from his interview that leaked to the press, the head of diplomacy affirms in particular that it is the Revolutionary Guards - dependent on the Guide - who appoint Iranian ambassadors in strategic countries in the Middle East.
"The Minister of Foreign Affairs is a simple executor", summarizes Jonathan Piron.
In Iran, the Supreme National Security Council determines the country's foreign and defense policy.
If the Iranian president is at the head of this body made up of representatives of the country's main institutions, the decisions must then be validated by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Likewise, the decision whether or not to sign an international agreement, such as the nuclear agreement, falls under the Guide of the Revolution.
This then authorizes the president and his government to negotiate if necessary.
On the other hand, it is the Iranian president who travels abroad.
He is also the one who signs the treaties.
"He is the facade of the Iranian regime."
A significant role, especially as the number one of the Iranian state, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, now 82 years old, is aging.
"This election is particularly important," said the researcher, who sees a historic moment.
"One can legitimately think that the future Iranian president will be the one who will live the succession of the Supreme Leader during his mandate."
* The first name has been changed.
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