Milan (AFP)

Unions fear a "social tsunami", left parties "a hecatomb for jobs": the coming end of the ban on layoffs in Italy, supposed to counter the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, is straining the government motley directed by Mario Draghi.

The latter had however warned as soon as he took office in February that "the government must protect all workers, but it would be a mistake to protect all companies indiscriminately".

According to him, "we have to make choices".

The European Commission got involved at the beginning of June to denounce a system unique in Europe which is proving to be "counterproductive", insofar as it protects employees with indefinite contracts but "not precarious workers", for the most part young people and women.

In France and Germany, countries which have not resorted to the freeze on layoffs but have financed partial unemployment, the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on employment have been less than in Italy, argued Brussels.

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A priori, the freeze on layoffs should expire at the end of June for large companies, especially in construction and industry, and at the end of October for small and medium-sized companies, especially in services.

- The government divided -

The ruling coalition is divided on the question: if the unclassifiable 5 Star Movement (M5S) militates, like the unions, for a new general extension of the ban on dismissal, the League of Matteo Salvini, party of extreme right, demands "the freedom to hire" for companies.

Labor Minister Andrea Orlando, member of the Democratic Party (center left) ventured in May to announce to the press an extension of the blocking of dismissals under certain conditions until the end of August, before backing down under pressure from the Italian employers.

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A solution could be through a "selective" extension of the freeze for certain very weakened sectors such as textiles, as proposed by the Minister of Economic Development Giancarlo Giorgetti, member of the League.

But should we expect an avalanche of layoffs?

"No, the most realistic estimates speak of 70,000 to 100,000 redundancies, it is certainly not negligible, but it is not enormous", relativizes with AFP Francesco Seghezzi, president of the Adapt Foundation, specialized in the research on the world of work.

Estimates that remain clearly below the fears of unions who fear "a million additional unemployed", while the Bank of Italy estimated at 440,000 the number of jobs saved in 2020 thanks to the blocking of layoffs.

"Italy was one of the first countries where the pandemic spread massively, which generated such fear" that the former government headed by Giuseppe Conte "opted for a generalized shutdown of the economy and therefore a freeze on layoffs "from the end of February 2020, explains Mr. Seghezzi.

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- 'Economic miracle' -

Despite the ban in force, 550,000 layoffs took place in 2020, as those related to disciplinary issues or business closures were not banned.

There are also hundreds of thousands of precarious workers whose contracts have not been renewed.

In total, nearly a million workstations were wiped off the map in 2020 in Italy.

The unemployment rate reached 10.4% in the first quarter, the highest since the beginning of 2019. In the category of young people between 15 and 24 years old, this rate even climbs to 39.2% for women and 32.7% for women. men.

But some sectors such as manufacturing and construction have difficulty recruiting for lack of skilled labor.

Nearly 1.3 million positions, most of them temporary, are to be filled between June and August, according to the Union of Chambers of Commerce (Unioncamere).

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Confindustria, the country's main employers' organization, is optimistic, forecasting economic growth of around 5% in 2021, a forecast shared by the Bank of Italy.

Its president Carlo Bonomi believes that "the conditions for a small economic miracle are met".

© 2021 AFP