The US president can guarantee a successful meeting if he avoids Trump's mistakes

Expectations about the upcoming summit between Biden and Putin

The Biden-Putin summit could lead to the de-isolation of Russia.

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It seems that the meeting of US Presidents Joe Biden and Russian Vladimir Putin in Geneva will raise a lot of speculation and analysis, and many will ask questions about who "won" this summit?

To answer this question, experts and policy makers are likely to adopt four criteria: how the meeting compares with former President Donald Trump's meetings with Putin, whether the Biden administration accepts change, the extent to which any agreements have reached, and what the summit can produce. .

Trump standard

Biden could go far toward a successful summit, once he avoided the mistakes made by Trump, and former US President Donald Trump did not understand that by not confronting Putin with the reality of his interference in the American elections and other issues, he created partisan opposition from Congress, and the "new sanctions" became Against Russia” asserted, and on the contrary Biden seems keen to put forward all the complaints of Western countries, although he is trying to improve relations with the Kremlin, and Biden’s advisers realize that after the meeting between the two leaders, they should describe the swing in the American position on Russia about its continued occupation Eastern Ukraine, the continued imprisonment and harassment of political opponents, and the Kremlin's support for harsh policies in Belarus.

Another change

President Biden's foreign policy team sees that he wants a relationship between the United States and Russia that is not only different from the Trump administration, but also from the administration of former President Barack Obama, and although that is unfair, the change that took place at the beginning of the Obama administration is now routinely treated as Wishful thinking about Russia.

White House staffers insist they have no illusion that it would be easy to change Moscow's course, and they imagine a process being carried out at operational levels by shrewd diplomatic experts, carefully exploring areas that could serve as common ground between the two sides, from Iran's nuclear program to To climate change, in this way the outcome of a successful summit - which is very clear that it will not be a change in US policy - must include agreements to continue negotiations.

Small scale agreements

Even a short meeting between Biden and Putin, could result in what bureaucrats call “outcomes,” a small list of items in which the two presidents overcame their old differences and turned the page, and one of the things that is likely to be achieved during this summit is the return of the ambassadors of the two countries to their posts (they are now in their countries for consultation), easing restrictions on their embassies and consulates, the release of one or two Americans now imprisoned in Russian prisons, a comfortable framework for the resumption of discussions on limiting nuclear arms, and vague hints about possible progress on other issues. Especially on getting the Kremlin to agree to solve the problem of cybercriminals operating with impunity in Russia.

The rest of Biden's trip

Although the media coverage of Biden's first official foreign trip focuses on the meeting with Putin, what the administration says about the rest of the trip is different from that, there are many other summits that Biden will hold, the first of which was the meeting with British Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, And then hold separate sessions with senior European Union leaders in Brussels, and if Biden can strengthen the lines that unite the Western world, especially on difficult issues such as the gas pipelines known as “Nord Stream”, the spending of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization “NATO”, Ukraine and Belarus He will sit down with Putin and set better terms.

These four indicators will determine much of the public discussion at the Geneva summit. In addition, Biden and his team will make a special assessment of Putin's interest in reshaping Russia's relations with the West. Is he ready to modify Russia's policy, both at home and abroad, in a way that can begin Reducing Russia's isolation?

Or does he find the image of Russia under siege too difficult to change, too attached to the idea of ​​his historical role, and too useful for his domestic policy?

US officials will not get the final answer to all of these questions, but their assessment of Putin's view will influence the time, energy, and commitment they invest in relations with Russia after the summit.

• The Biden team is particularly keen on getting the Kremlin to agree to solve the problem of cybercriminals operating with impunity in Russia.

Stephen Sestanovich - a specialist in Russian affairs.

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