He adopts a cautious approach to dealing with crises
Biden faces new challenges and dangers in the Middle East
Biden was dealing with a politically exhausted Israeli prime minister.
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The US mediation for a cease-fire in Gaza came late.
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The tense situation in the Palestinian territories requires a new approach from the Biden administration.
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With the cease-fire between Israel and Hamas after the latest wave of violence, the White House officials who helped broker agreement over the crucial next step are divided: Should President Joe Biden make a public announcement?
The downside was that the planned pause in the fighting, set to go into effect at 7 p.m. Washington time, could unravel, embarrassing the president, and the trend has been: Presenting the president as a peacemaker, making it unlikely that either side will conflict, shattering the plan with a last-minute strike.
Going forward, Biden made brief remarks an hour before the ceasefire went into effect, implicitly responding to critics who accused him of doing little to end the fighting faster, by touting the "intense work of his administration" and "behind the scenes" diplomatic efforts.
The fruits of adventure
The adventure paid off, as the agreement was concluded, and the ceasefire came into effect that night.
But now that he is the latest US president to mediate the long-running conflict between Israel and the Palestinians, Biden faces more challenges and risks ahead.
White House officials are discussing how to reset their approach, hoping to avoid another crisis that would divert the president's attention from his foreign policy priorities: China, Russia, and restoring the Iran nuclear deal.
And in a reminder of Biden's more expansionist agenda, the latter recently met at the White House with South Korean President Moon Jae-in to discuss issues including Beijing's growing power and North Korea's nuclear program.
In the short term, Biden is taking steps to increase U.S. engagement, and the State Department will dispatch a veteran diplomat, Michael Ratney, to lead the U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem, until the president decides who he chooses for ambassador there.
It is unclear when Biden might choose his ambassador, a task many regional experts have described as urgent, and two people in contact with the White House on Israeli affairs said they expected Thomas Nides, who served as deputy secretary of state in the Obama administration, but the process of nominating someone What and his confirmation of the position may take months.
connection point
Administration officials are also planning to reopen the US Consulate in Jerusalem, which was Washington's main point of contact with the Palestinians, until it was integrated into the US embassy, which was moved to Jerusalem under President Donald Trump, prompting Palestinian officials to refuse it.
In that, the former Obama administration official, current director of the Middle East Security Program at the Center for Public Information, Ilan Goldenberg, says: “The consulate was our eyes on the ground with the Palestinians at the moment of crisis,” adding: “The Trump administration blinded the US government by eliminating it, and harmed The response of the United States in the period leading up to this crisis.
“The Biden administration has been working on reopening it, and I now expect these efforts to accelerate and have a much higher priority,” said Ratney, who served as a former deputy assistant secretary of state for Israeli and Palestinian affairs and consul general in Jerusalem during the Obama administration. He continued, "It could serve as a Washington channel for communicating with the Palestinians at this time."
More broadly, White House officials are considering methods to de-escalate the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians, and have reached an early consensus to lead an international humanitarian effort for Gaza, which Biden said would be led by the Palestinian Authority, not the Hamas fighters who currently rule the strip. overcrowded Palestinian
In a press conference with Moon, Biden added that this would be done "without allowing (Hamas) an opportunity to rebuild its weapons systems." Hamas is a terrorist organization.
The White House is also preparing for a new test of the relationship with (former) Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, or his successor, when it comes to his efforts to restore the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, which Netanyahu and many other Israeli leaders vehemently oppose as a threat to Israel's security.
“Israel and the United States are going to have big things to work on, especially Iran,” said Richard Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations. “Both men (Biden and Netanyahu) needed to maintain a working relationship, even if the Iranian situation moved to the front end. They will be able to work together.”
mediation role
The White House has strengthened the administration's role in brokering the latest cease-fire, while wary of Netanyahu. Throughout the diplomatic efforts, Biden has acknowledged Israel's right to respond to Hamas rocket attacks, following the recent clashes between Jews and Palestinians inside Israel.
The president only increased the pressure after more than a week of fighting, and analysts said that by that time, the IDF was on the verge of completing its military objectives. "The ceasefire between (Hamas) and the government of Israel came because both sides decided that prolonging the conflict," Hass explained. It does not serve their interests.” He continued, “This was a ceasefire that was basically ready to happen.” According to some accounts, the American president was more influential, and at least avoided political measures that could have made matters worse, and his tactic was to avoid condemnation. Publicly for Israel's bombing of Gaza, or even a public call for a ceasefire, in order to build credit with Netanyahu, then apply pressure privately at the appropriate time, according to two people familiar with the administration's internal discussions.
A decisive moment
There is no doubt that when diplomacy reached a critical moment, Biden's team played an important role in brokering a ceasefire.
At one point, in the offices of the National Security Council, Biden's national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, had a phone call with his Israeli counterpart, Meir Ben-Shabbat, while the council's chief Middle East official, Brett McGurk, was speaking with a senior official in the Egyptian government, which I worked as an American mediator with Hamas.
The Israelis and Hamas leaders were seeking assurances from the other side that neither would attack at the last minute, before the ceasefire, in an attempt to claim a belated victory.
Sullivan and McGurk were on the line, passing messages between Jerusalem and Cairo in real time, and while such efforts paint a picture of the United States' re-engagement in multilateral peacemaking diplomacy, they also marked a diversion from Biden's many other priorities.
important issue
In a Brookings Institution analysis published two weeks ago, institute fellow Tamara Kaufman warned that administration officials would need to spend more time on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and Kaufman wrote that the White House needs to recognize that while it prefers to focus U.S. talks The President, the National Security Adviser, and other national security officials will also have to devote time and attention to this issue, if they are to avoid a continuing slide that impedes other priority regional goals, she explained: “Administration officials have not given Any indication that they will change course, appoint an envoy tasked with resuming the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, in pursuit of a two-state solution, an outcome widely seen as almost hopelessly out of reach at the moment.
But two weeks ago, the US President emphasized that this is a long-term goal, saying: "We still need a two-state solution, and this is the only answer."
• The White House is preparing for a new test of the relationship with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, or his successor, when it comes to his efforts to restore the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, which Netanyahu and many other Israeli leaders strongly oppose, as a threat to Israel's security.
• Two people in contact with the White House on Israeli affairs said that they expected Biden to choose Mr. Thomas Nides, who served as deputy secretary of state in the Obama administration, as ambassador to Tel Aviv, but the process of nominating and confirming someone for the position might take months.
Michael Crowley - Diplomatic Correspondent in the Washington bureau
Annie Carney - White House Correspondent
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