During his first meeting on Wednesday with Joe Biden, Vladimir Poutine will not demand major advances in arms control, the lifting of sanctions or even an apology for being called a “killer”. Because the Russian president has already had what he wanted: the holding of the summit as an illustration of the importance of Russia. In view of the extent of the tensions and the list of American grievances against Moscow (cyber attacks, electoral interference, imprisonment of the opponent Alexeï Navalny, elimination of the opposition from the political game), the officials of both camps have minimized expectations.

For Vladimir Putin, Joe Biden's invitation, a sign of respect, was enough in itself. However, the recognition of the power of his country is the leitmotif of the Russian president for two decades in power: “One of the absolutely crucial engines of his foreign policy is the feeling of having to give back to Russia the place which it deserves in the world. and this kind of event plays absolutely in this direction, assures Mark Galeotti, professor of Russian studies at the University College of London. “The summit in itself is already a victory,” he continues. Especially since Vladimir Putin will be one of the first leaders to meet face-to-face with Joe Biden since his arrival at the White House in January. And it is the American president who took the initiative of the meeting,as Russia flexed its muscles by placing tens of thousands of troops on Ukraine's borders.

In the big leagues

"The summit shows that Russia is playing in the big leagues", adds Alexander Shumilin, of the Russian Academy of Sciences, "The Kremlin sees it that way, and the West too".

Nobody expects a friendly exchange, especially since the two presidents have increased the sanctions and counter-sanctions for six months.

The US president has promised to stand firm against the master of the Kremlin, on cyber attacks, Ukraine or Russian electoral interference efforts.

He also insisted that he will not remain "with folded arms" in the face of "violations" of human rights, a subject that has the gift of bristling the Kremlin.

For its part, Russia is not left out since it officially designated the United States in May as an "unfriendly state".

The only recent positive development was the February extension of the New Start nuclear treaty, the last existing arms reduction agreement between the two rivals.

In an interview with the American channel NBC News broadcast on Friday, the Russian president estimated that relations with the United States "have deteriorated to the greatest extent in recent years", but he said he hoped that the new US president will be less impulsive than his predecessor Donald Trump.

Moscow is under no illusions, Washington wants to put aside the Russian dossier

"We are not looking for conflict" with Russia, in any case assured, Sunday, Joe Biden to the press in Newquay (England) at the end of the G7 summit. The head of the Russian diplomacy, Sergei Lavrov, affirmed him that Moscow had "no illusions" about the meeting and hoped, at best, for progress on the questions of "strategic stability". For the experts, in the end, the two men will be especially keen to give their confrontation a more predictable form. "Relations between Russia and the United States have become irrational," said Fyodor Loukianov, editor-in-chief of the magazine "Russia in Global Affairs" which evokes a "conflicting anarchy". "Now they want to move to a structured system, which is more reminiscent of the Cold War," he said.

New discussions on the control of nuclear arsenals would already be positive or an effort in terms of cybersecurity.

On the question of human rights and Alexeï Navalny, nobody expects anything.

No more on Russian support for separatists in eastern Ukraine.

In the end, according to Mark Galeotti, Vladimir Putin will be able to return to Moscow savoring his glory.

Joe Biden can move on.

"He simply wants (...) to put Russia in a box and put it on a shelf", judges the expert, "he has other problems, the Covid, China".

According to him, the message will be: "As long as you do not do anything that forces me to act, I will not pay too much attention to you".

No joint press conference is scheduled for the time being after the summit in Geneva.

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