It is right, necessary and also overdue that the large western industrial nations and their democratic partners become aware of their relationship with China. China seeks global economic dominance and widespread geopolitical influence; The communist leadership uses supposed economic dependency as a lever to force political compliance. The Western-Chinese relationship that is solidifying is one of rivalry, supplemented by more or less strong elements of competition and, far less strongly, elements of cooperation. In other words, it's complex.
That is why it is not so easy, to say the least, to proclaim the great decoupling now.
It is premature to see the division of the world economy into two opposing blocs.
The western countries are too closely intertwined with the Chinese economy for that, the European countries the least.
Japan, for example, exports around 22 percent of its total exports to China;
the Australian share is even around forty percent.
The South Korean is a good 25, the American is just under nine - and the German is eight percent.
In the case of imports, the flow of goods is in part, in relative terms, even stronger: 19 percent of all American imports came from China in 2020, in Japan the proportion was a good 25, in Australia just under 29 and in Germany a good eleven percent.
Are we exposing ourselves to blackmail?
It is noticeable that the non-European countries are now aware of the possibility of political instrumentalization of their close foreign trade policy interdependence, which they have entered into in the past, even against clear warnings - direct investments are also added. It is also noticeable that they do not avoid disputes with China. It is a good thing that, like Australia, they do not allow themselves to be politically blackmailed. The rise of China to a great and world power is now also perceived as a threat to its own values and interests, at least no longer as an act of political innocence.
But economic “decoupling” after years of growing economic interdependence, which was also widely touted, is something completely different. It is one thing to talk about a new cold war and another when the opposing party is the main economic partner. For the Europeans, as I said, this is not the case overall, and the Chinese market may also become increasingly important for the German economy.