In many countries, births have declined by personal decisions
The “3 children per family” policy will not bring any benefit to China
The two-child policy has not changed the situation much.
archival
“Both the husband and the wife have the duty to plan the family.” These words in China constitute a threat enshrined in the constitution.
Failure to adhere to the ruling party's idea of the correct family size could result in a penalty, with a heavy fine or job loss.
Among the Muslim ethnic minorities in the far western region of Xinjiang, women who exceeded the specified number of children were subjected to forced sterilization and sent to concentration camps.
Some Chinese may be relieved that the Communist Party will relax the rules.
punishment
Previously, most couples had two children.
On May 31, the Politburo announced that the limit would be raised to three.
In theory, ethnic minorities living in the countryside are already allowed in that number, but officials in Xinjiang sometimes punish even those who did not go over the limit.
Allowing three children is a big change compared to the strict measures of 1979-2016.
At that time, the implementation of the one-child policy led to widespread abuses, including forced abortions, confiscation of property, and even the demolition of people's homes.
In much of China, these atrocities have eased as regulations are relaxed.
The goal of allowing three children is to encourage couples to have more.
China's fertility rate is among the lowest in the world.
The proportion of the population aged 60 years has risen rapidly;
In 2000, they made up a tenth of the population.
By the end of this decade, it is expected to rise to a quarter.
Less number of births
Last year saw the lowest number of births since 1961, the time of the famine under Mao Zedong.
But changing the policy will not achieve the desired result for the government, nor will it end the suffering of the people.
Convincing people to have more children is very difficult, as governments in many countries have found.
As societies get richer, couples have fewer children and spend more time and money on each one.
The main reason Chinese couples today don't want big families is because they feel they can't afford them.
In cities, housing and childcare are expensive, and sending a child to a good school or university often requires paying for intensive classes.
Given the weak social welfare network, young people fear having to take care of elderly parents.
The party acknowledges that these problems need to be addressed, and lifting restrictions on family size may not do much to encourage more children.
reluctance to marry
Many young Chinese refuse to marry, let alone have children. The number of couples has decreased by about 40% over the past seven years. Women want to work, and fear that their career prospects will be jeopardized if they need maternity leave or to care for the family. The Communist Party Politburo says employers should not discriminate against women, but officials often turn a blind eye to labor law violations. The transition to the two-child policy only slightly increased the fertility rate. Nor is the three-child policy more successful.
But there are other reasons to abolish the two-child rule, and all restrictions on family size.
This policy caused great suffering to millions who were punished for not adhering to it.
It did nothing, as China's population had stopped growing anyway as a result of personal choice, as elsewhere in the world.
The party is reluctant to admit that imposing limits on family size was a mistake from the start.
But this is a reason for the state to make a decision regarding the spouses themselves.
Every other country gives its people basic freedom as to whether or not to have children.
Why doesn't China do that?
• China's fertility rate is among the lowest in the world. The proportion of the population aged 60 years has risen rapidly; In 2000, they made up a tenth of the population. By the end of this decade, it is expected to rise to a quarter.
• Changing the policy will not achieve the desired result for the government, nor will it end the suffering of the people. Convincing people to have more children is very difficult, as governments in many countries have found.
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