In the hope that a “rallying” personality emerges for the next presidential election in 2022 and to avoid deadly heartbreaks a few months before the election, The Republicans have decided to innovate by polling a panel of 15,000 supporters.

"We worked with Gérard Larcher on the preparation of opinion polls, on a panel of 15,000 people," LR president Christian Jacob said Wednesday at a press conference.

"A number of candidates have expressed the desire" to participate

The respondents will not only be LR activists but people "who recognize themselves in the values ​​of the right and the center", he assured at the end of a LR strategic council. They will be asked about their expectations, but also "on the various potential and proven candidates, and their image", explained Pascal Perrineau, from Cevipof, coordinator of the survey with this "very large sample". Such an unprecedented process does not go in the direction of the primaries, which left a bitter memory in 2016 by exacerbating tensions. But he asks several questions.

First of all, who will be the personalities tested?

"A number of candidates have expressed the desire" to be, assured Christian Jacob, without detailing.

Conversely, Xavier Bertrand, already in the race to represent the right, even if he has not been LR since 2017, will he accept to be tested?

Other names are put forward for the right: Valérie Pécresse, Michel Barnier, Bruno Retailleau, even Laurent Wauquiez or certain mayors of lesser notoriety.

"It will eliminate small candidates, and convince others to enter the process," said a deputy.

François Baroin, whom LR management continues to push despite his silence, will find it difficult to remain in ambiguity.

A "rally" candidate

The mayor of Antibes Jean Leonetti has been appointed to oversee the process, with the mission of speaking to each other. The result of the survey, of which "a first wave will come out around September 20 and a second in October", will "shed light" on the selection process on "incontestable scientific bases", argued Christian Jacob. But a second question arises: what will happen in the event of tight scores? “To fold the match you have to do 80/20. It will not happen, ”predicted a deputy. "Either we have a candidate who crushes the match, or we will be on a selection process that we will prepare beforehand," explained Christian Jacob.

Concretely, the study among the 15,000 respondents will also allow them to be questioned about their expectations in terms of the tie-breaker.

Jean Leonetti will work on a method that he will propose to the political bureau "at the latest at the end of September".

At the end of September, that is to say shortly after the first wave of the survey, which will take “considerable importance” according to an elected official.

Because a party congress will follow.

For Christian Jacob, "the objective is clearly to have a unifying candidate" because "it is not a question of playing placed or of heating against each other".

It is also necessary, beyond the candidate, to set up "a team for France" argued Gérard Larcher Wednesday on France 2.

The expected result in November

The general calendar, however, remains unchanged for LR, despite internal calls to speed up the pace: "the goal of the point of arrival" to designate the candidate remains "November", assured Christian Jacob. But to accelerate on the method, by announcing it before the regional ones, "makes it possible to avoid that the 27 in the evening, according to the result, one has divergent scenarios which are expressed", underlines a framework of the party, whereas the he regional deadline could serve as a springboard for several regional presidents.

This announcement also reaffirms the ambitions of a party which, threatened with suffocation despite its good local presence, is actively working on its program with a series of thematic conventions, the last of which, on health, was held on Tuesday.

The LREM “have already nominated their candidate, as has the National Assembly.

(…) We cannot stay with the gun at our feet, ”Jean Leonetti said on Tuesday.

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  • The Republicans (France)