The shadow of a Ryanair plane will hover over the meeting to be held on Friday May 28 in Sochi between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Belarusian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko. On the menu of discussions, political integration, economic relations and friendship between the two countries. Nothing out of the ordinary for two longtime allies. But the decision of the strongman of Minsk to have a plane hijacked on May 23 and to arrest the Belarusian opponent Roman Protassevich who was on board is likely to upset the interview.
This coup by Alexander Lukashenko, which earned him strong condemnation from the international community, has in fact put the master of the Kremlin in an a priori delicate situation.
Vladimir Putin was quickly associated by Western democracies with the Belarusian autocrat's punch operation, often presented as a sort of more or less willing vassal of Moscow.
Vladimir Poutine put in the perfume?
“It is very difficult to believe that such an action could have been taken without the consent, at a minimum, of the Russian authorities,” said Dominic Raab, the British Foreign Minister. Others went further suggesting that the Kremlin may have done more than give its okay. “It is not impossible that Russia has played an active role in this affair,” said Artyom Shraibman, a Ukrainian political analyst, interviewed by AFP.
The hypothesis of a Vladimir Putin behind the scenes organizing the hijacking of an airliner “seems somewhat far-fetched”, for his part believes Zachary Paikin, specialist on Russia and Belarus at the Center for European Policy Studies (CEPS), contacted by France 24. "I do not believe it either, but the Russians could very well have been informed a little before", adds Benno Zogg, expert on Russia at the Center for studies on the international security of the Polytechnic of Zurich, contacted by France 24.
Difficult, in fact, to leave Moscow aside while Russia and Belarus share their airspace. In addition, the collaboration "between the two countries in the field of intelligence has greatly increased since the repression of the anti-Lukashenko demonstrations in Minsk in August 2020", underlines Rihor Nizhnikau, expert on Belarus at the Finnish Institute of Relations international, contacted by France 24.
But the fact that Vladimir Poutine could have been put in the perfume upstream does not mean that the operation rejoices him.
Moscow also took nearly 48 hours to comment on the hijacking.
Sergey Lavrov, the head of Russian diplomacy, finally gave his support to Minsk on Tuesday, but in much more measured terms than part of the Russian official media which, as of Monday, had estimated that Alexander Lukashenko “had played very well the stroke".
Putin cannot let go of Lukashenko
“From the point of view of the agenda of the Russian president, this crisis comes at a bad time”, analyzes Astrid Sahm, specialist in Belarus at the German Institute of International Affairs (SWP), contacted by France 24. Vladimir Poutine must indeed meet his American counterpart, Joe Biden, in a little over two weeks to try to relax a little the atmosphere between the two countries. He would probably have preferred not to have to explain to his interlocutor why he did not prevent one of his closest allies from committing an act which deeply shocked a good part of the international public opinion.
In reality, Vladimir Putin can hardly help but let Alexander Lukashenko more and more openly express his authoritarian abuses.
Belarus occupies too important a geopolitical position in Moscow's eyes to risk alienating the Minsk autocrat.
It is the last buffer country between Russia and Western Europe, and the Kremlin is doing everything to keep the country within its sphere of influence.
Vladimir Poutine has already swallowed his share of snakes to maintain a certain grip on the Belarusian president, in power for more than 25 years.
Alexander Lukashenko has long played the card of a possible rapprochement with the West to obtain financial concessions from Russia.
He also always refused to recognize the Russian annexation of Crimea.
After the bloody repression of the August 2020 protests in Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko seemed to have lost all capital of sympathy in the West. But in recent months, "there were once again voices in Europe campaigning for a normalization of relations with Belarus in order to try to extricate the country from the Russian fold," recalls Rihor Nizhnikau. By letting the Belarusian president go so far as to hijack a plane to arrest an opponent, the Kremlin can be sure that “these supporters of a rapprochement between Europe and Belarus will not be listened to for a while”, notes l expert from the Finnish Institute.
The Russian president cannot let go of his Belarusian counterpart "for reasons of internal politics", says Astrid Sahm.
This would be to suggest that international pressures are working, which "would constitute a dangerous precedent at a time when the Russian president is facing increasingly strong opposition in Russia itself", notes the German expert.
“Everyone is going to need Moscow now”
This scandal could also do the business of Vladimir Poutine, who “has always known how to react in a very opportunistic way to the situations which present themselves to him”, recalls Zachary Paikin, the expert of the Center for European Policy Studies.
“In a sense, this crisis is practical for him because he no longer appears as the worst villain in the region,” notes Benno Zogg, who points out that since the beginning of the week, we no longer speak, for example, of the situation of the Russian opponent Alexeï Navalny.
And then, it also puts Vladimir Putin at the center of the diplomatic game in the role of "independent mediator", adds Rihor Nizhnikau. "Everyone is going to need Moscow now because Alexander Lukashenko only listens to Vladimir Putin. This gives him a playing card with Europe as well as with the United States ”, specifies this expert.
Finally, Alexander Lukashenko finds himself even more at the mercy of his Russian neighbor.
The Belarusian autocrat has dragged out Belarus' economic and political integration plans within Russia for years, but by thus burning bridges with the West and putting Moscow in an awkward position, he is giving Vladimir Putin “Arguments to push Minsk to accept concessions”, concludes Astrid Sahm.
And if Moscow manages to extend its grip on Belarusian politics, it could allow it to set up a pro-Russian party that is less unpredictable than Alexander Lukashenko.
Which could hasten the end of the latter's political career.
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