Belarus Roman Protasevich: hunt the 'boy' who grew up against Lukashenko
Reactions UK orders British planes to avoid Belarusian airspace
Sanctions for the individuals involved in the operation that forced the emergency landing of a Ryanair plane covering the Athens-Vilnius route at Minsk airport. Sanctions for the oligarchs and entities that finance Alexander Lukashenko's regime. Sanctions against the Belarusian aviation sector, especially focused on the national airline. And immediate diplomatic punishment, with the expulsion of ambassadors and prominent personnel in less than 48 hours from countries with Latvia. On Sunday one of Vladimir Putin's main allies on the continent delivered an unprecedented coup and on Monday the heads of state and government of the 27 sent their acknowledgment of receipt.
There are few times when an outside provocation makes such a clear impact and generates such a unanimous reaction. The EU has no foreign policy powers and making far-reaching decisions requires endless hours of meetings, ironing out rough spots, overcoming red lines. This time it was not like that.
The "act of state terrorism", the "air piracy" experienced over the weekend
, was as unexpected and crude as it was daring, but it served so that for once there was no doubt in Brussels. The leaders arrived in the community capital with a clear idea and shaping the answer took less time than expected.
After a couple of hours of debate without electronic devices, to avoid espionage, the Heads of State and Government agreed on a point in the document of conclusions in which they demand the immediate release of Roman Protasevich and Sofia Sapega, who were arrested when they touched down in Minsk. , and outline the architecture of punishment
.
Due to the way the EU works, the European Council does not draw up sanctions. They can approve or endorse them, but it is their ministers (the Council of the EU) who do the technical work. For this reason,
the document agreed on Monday "invites" the Council "to adopt additional lists of people and entities as soon as possible"
, taking advantage of the legal framework already in force. Likewise, the leaders urge the foreign ministers to "impose more economic sanctions", for which they invite High Representative Josep Borrell and the European Commission to "submit concrete proposals without delay for this purpose." Those lists could and should be ready in a matter of weeks, if no one blocks the decision.
Last September, after weeks sending unequivocal messages of support to the Belarusian opposition, harsh criticism of the regime in power and having already outlined a specific battery of sanctions against its leaders, the 27 were unable to make the decision to apply them. On that occasion the cause was the veto of Cyprus, which had nothing to object in itself, but which used the Minsk issue to put pressure on what really concerned it, the lack of forcefulness in the face of Turkey. The Government in Nicosia put it in simple terms: if there were no sanctions on Ankara they would veto the punishment of Lukashenko, leaving the EU with the shame in the air. So it was.
Today, that issue is not the main one, but all eyes are on Hungary, which has been boycotting dozens of decisions in Foreign Policy for months and months, which has vetoed different sanctions or statements of conviction and denunciation and which, once again, could continue in his line, because if there is someone minimally close to Lukashenko in the EU, or willing to take a portrait with him, it is precisely Viktor Orban.
Today the Hungarian has not said anything and the spirits in Europe are very hot, but it is not clear that it will be the same in a few weeks.
The goal in Brussels is to isolate Lukashenko, politically, economically and even physically
. There were already sanctions, but they will be toughened. And there is a package of aid of up to 3,000 million euros available to the country "if it becomes democratic," said the president of the Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, playing with the carrot. And the stick. But now, in addition, the EU not only urges all continental airlines to avoid Belarusian airspace, in order to avoid other acts of "piracy" and "state kidnappings", but has also put in place the mechanisms to "adopt measures necessary to veto the use of EU airspace by Belarusian airlines ", as well as" to prevent access to EU airports for flights operated by those airlines ". Some, such as Air Baltic, Wizz Air, KLM or Lufthansa have already started to apply it.
A clear punishment, but also a problem for the local opposition, which will be even more isolated
.
There is, since 2012, a Council Decision that establishes the framework for sanctions against Minsk, contemplating arms embargoes or military assistance, the sale of any type of material that can be used for internal repression, the prohibition of travel to the EU of those who are on a black list or the freezing of assets, measures that are already applied as in Russia or Venezuela, to punish a regime, but not the population.
But they are insufficient and have not been updated to respond to the abuses seen in 2020 and the official repression.
The first two measures are maintained, but the list of people who cannot travel is, right now, very short, four individuals considered responsible for the disappearance of four dissidents two decades ago.
The list has been oscillating over time and became long, but now it is almost at a minimum, according to lawyer Tomasz Wlostowski recalls.
Defensive sanctions to prevent future violations, but not offensive
to weaken the regime, since they did not target commerce, or the most important sectors of the economy, nor did they punish public companies controlled by Lukashenko and his allies.
And that is where the most damage can be done.
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