The interlocking of economic interests hinders the group's work

The US anti-China coalition suffers from ineffectiveness

• The Sino-American rivalry is heating up.

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President Joe Biden seeks to confront China by relying on revitalizing alliances and partnerships again in all regions of the world. During his first days in the White House, President Joe Biden sought to revitalize the alliance with both South Korea and Japan, and the quadripartite security dialogue (which includes: the United States, India, Australia and Japan), in an attempt to deter Beijing, and counter its moves in the Indian Pacific region by relying on the joint military capabilities of member states, which some believe is ineffective due to the weaknesses of the Quartet member states in their relationship with China, and to maximize the economic interests that connect Each member state in Beijing, and therefore it will not be able to agree on a unified political agenda to confront it, contain it, and limit its movements and its growing influence that threatens the stability of the region.

In this regard, "Foreign Policy" magazine published an article entitled: "Why will attempts to build a new anti-China coalition fail?", Written by Kishore Mahbubani, in which he searches for reasons that would fail the new US administration's efforts to build an anti-China alliance in The Asia-Pacific region by relying on the revitalization of the quadripartite security dialogue.

Probable failure

Despite the difficulty that many countries face in accepting the reality of the growing Chinese power, and the inability to adapt to this matter, given the increasing threats posed by Beijing; The United States, India, Japan, and Australia have tended to cooperate by establishing the quadripartite security dialogue in an attempt to undermine the growing Chinese influence. However, according to the author, the US administration's efforts to revitalize this dialogue will not succeed, and it will not be able to achieve its goals or change the course of Asian history. This is because the countries in the alliance focus on confronting Beijing by relying mainly on military power, while the "major strategic game" lies in Asia, by focusing on economic competition. In addition, the four countries will not be able to agree on unified policies due to the difference in objectives, and the presence of many "geopolitical weaknesses" for each country vis-à-vis China.

Mahbubani notes that Australia has many weaknesses in facing China, as it is specifically exposed to many risks emanating from the Chinese Communist Party, especially in light of the Australian economy's increasing dependence on Beijing, as it is one of Australia's largest economic partners. In 2018 and 2019, while Australia exported only 5% of its total exports to the United States, 33% of exports went to Beijing.

So Australians feel proud of being able to achieve remarkable economic growth over three decades, although the credit goes to the Chinese state. Consequently, it was not wise for Canberra to risk its relationship with Beijing by inviting countries in the international system to open an urgent international investigation into China's role in the spread of the Coronavirus, since since this incident Australia has been in trouble, as the Chinese government has besieged it economically, and it exerts violent pressure in This framework is a kind of punishment for its daring hostility to Beijing, and for it to become a model for countries that might think about its hostility, and then the entire international system is watching the fierce confrontation between the two countries to identify the predetermined outcome. It is possible that in the event that Australia succeeds in the face of Chinese economic pressures, it will encourage other countries to take measures and moves aimed at "humiliating China".

In this context, the Australian researcher, Hugh White, believes that the main problem of Canberra is that China has "most of the cards" of its own, as the strength of the state in international relations lies in the ability of one country to "impose exorbitant costs on another country at low cost for itself." , Which he believes Australian government officials are not very well aware of.

Former Australian Prime Minister Paul Keating also warned in November 2019 that efforts to push the Quartet to work effectively will not succeed due to member states ’precaution about taking resolute moves to confront and contain China.

As India - for example - cannot stand directly against it, and then there are doubts about the possibility of becoming an important ally of the United States against Beijing, and Japan is converging with it, so it will not join the efforts aimed at containing it.

Soured relationships

Japan is not economically dependent on China like Australia, but its main weakness in facing Beijing is the difficult and tense relations it brings with its neighbors: China, Russia and South Korea, unlike Canberra, which has good relations with its neighboring countries and members of the ASEAN Association. . Thus, Tokyo will find itself in a position that must deal intelligently with its Chinese neighbor in an attempt to adapt to the new position of power that Beijing has come to enjoy, while emphasizing its understanding of Chinese interests in an attempt to return to the situation that formed the historical relations between them. With the exception of the first half of the 20th century, Japan-China relations were dominated by peace, as the two countries had maintained historical contact for more than 1,500 years.

On this basis, the two countries can return to being friends again, even if realizing this possibility will happen slowly and gradually in conjunction with the two sides' move towards developing a new and temporary strategy for dealing with each other in order to achieve adaptation, according to what the East Asian researcher said, Ezra Vogel, in 2019.

Anti-China feelings have grown among the Indian people over the past years. Despite the proximity of the two countries to each other, actual contacts have been characterized by their scarcity due to the isolation of the two countries through the Himalayas, which is no longer difficult at the present time to penetrate, which has contributed to the increase in the number of confrontations. And the incidents that occur between the Chinese and Indian armies, including the one that occurred in June 2020. Therefore, relations are expected to continue to deteriorate over the coming years.

But it is possible that China will maintain its patience, because the long-term relationship between any two countries has always depended on the relative size of the two countries' economies.

During the period 1980-2020, the Chinese economy was able to grow five times more than India, even though the two economies were about the same size in 1980.

Economy to face China

A huge economic system is currently developing in China’s favor, thanks to the "geopolitical gift" the United States gave it by withdrawing from the Trans-Pacific Trade Partnership (TPP) in 2017, as well as India's non-accession to the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). Thus, China's total imports are expected to exceed $ 22 trillion in the next decade.

The size of the retail goods market in China in 2019 was nearly six trillion dollars compared to five trillion dollars for the United States, compared to the latter's superiority over Beijing in 2009, as the retail goods market reached four trillion dollars in Washington compared to 1.8 trillion dollars in favor. Beijing.

Similar to the defeat suffered by the Soviet Union in the 1970s and 1980s, thanks to the American consumer market, the final decision is likely to be left to the "big geopolitical game" in the coming years for the "large and growing" Chinese consumer market.

From this standpoint, the writer emphasized that what will change Asian history is not the joint military exercises of the Quartet in the Indian Ocean, but through a focus on economic competition, such as uniting efforts in the Comprehensive Regional Economic Partnership Agreement, for example.

Finally, there are a number of indications that forming an alliance against China through relying on the Quartet has not succeeded due to the economic interests of the member states, among them the fact that strong allies of the United States, led by South Korea, have not joined the Quartet until now.

• What will change Asian history is not the Quartet's joint military exercises in the Indian Ocean, but by focusing on economic competition, such as uniting efforts in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement, for example.

• There are a number of indications that forming an alliance against China through relying on the Quartet has not succeeded due to the economic interests of the member states, among them the fact that strong allies of the United States, led by South Korea, have not joined the Quartet until the present time.

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