Despite the passage of days after his statements, the controversy has not stopped about what Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry said about the lack of risk of the second filling of the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Lake, statements that seemed to contradict the speech spoken by the Egyptian authority over the past two months, which focuses on warning of damages. Water Barrier on the historical rights of Cairo in the Nile River.
Shukri's statements made last Tuesday evening to the media, Nashat Al-Daihi, on the "Ten" channel sparked a wave of anger among the pioneers of social networking sites and many writers and politicians, some of them supporters of the authority, and some of them expressed concerns that Shoukry's statements are the true expression of the Egyptian position towards The Renaissance Dam, which means surrender to the fait accompli.
During the dialogue, Shoukry said that the Egyptian interests would not be affected by the second filling of the planned dam next July, stressing his country's ability to deal with potential risks through tight procedures in managing water resources, especially as it has a balance of safety available in the High Dam reservoir.
It seems that the intensity of criticism prompted the Egyptian Foreign Minister to appear in the media again in order to absorb the anger, as he spoke to the journalist Amr Adib on the "MBC Egypt" channel on Friday evening, criticizing Ethiopia and saying that if the second filling of the Ethiopian dam began without reaching an agreement with Egypt and Sudan , It will have violated its commitments in the agreement of principles concluded between the three countries in 2015.
Regarding his previous statement that Egypt will not be affected by the second filling of the Renaissance Dam Lake, Shukry said that Egypt has always declared that it will not be complacent in defending its interests and its water share, and this was evidenced by the statements of President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, and officials such as the Minister of Irrigation, which means that it will not Accept damages incurred by them in this regard.
The interesting thing is that the Egyptian Foreign Minister had previously described Ethiopia’s single second filling as “which would cause great damage, even catastrophic, to the two downstream countries,” in a letter he sent last April to both the Secretary-General of the United Nations and the President of the Security Council, and he requested that it be circulated. As an official document in which all dimensions of the Renaissance Dam file, the various stages of negotiation, and the latest developments were explained.
# Egypt has waived its right to # Nile water! ... Nasser reveals the scenes of Sameh Shoukry's disastrous and contradictory statements # Egypt_Nharda # Renaissance Dam pic.twitter.com/1PYpLv1LYb
Makamlin Satellite Channel (@mekameleentv) May 22, 2021
Technical responses
This reassuring tone on the part of the Minister of Foreign Affairs raises questions about its implications at the present time, especially as it contradicts the statements of other ministers in the Egyptian government, including the Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation Mohamed Abdel-Ati, who considered - in a previous statement to him - that the second filling of the Renaissance Dam is a disaster in the range Remote.
Abdel-Aty warned that the second filling would force Egypt to take from its water reserves, and it would be catastrophic years later in the event of a drought.
Shukry's statements faced widespread condemnation, whether by observers and specialists or pioneers of social networking sites, and it seems that this prompted the Egyptian government to move quickly through other officials.
Hours after the controversial foreign minister's statements, the Egyptian Minister of Irrigation reaffirmed that filling the Renaissance Dam is a shock, because it will reduce the amount of water that comes to Egypt, especially if this coincides with a drought, explaining that Ethiopia intends to store approximately 13.5 billion Cubic meters of water during the second filling.
In turn, Parliament Speaker Hanafi Jabali confirmed that there is clear intransigence on the part of the Ethiopian side in reaching a binding legal and technical agreement, stressing Egypt's rejection of the policy of imposing fait accompli and any unilateral measures related to the second filling of the dam.
Where is the red line?
The stark contradiction emerges when comparing what Shukri said with President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi's successive warnings over the past two months about the repercussions of the Renaissance Dam file on the security and stability of the region, stressing that all options are open for his country to protect its water security.
Al-Sisi said that the waters of the Nile are a red line, and that Egypt has the capabilities that enable it to preserve it, statements that have been widely supported even among those opposed to the authority, as they are the strongest Egyptian stances towards the crisis that threatens Egypt's future and national security.
Al-Sisi's warnings coincided with the participation of Egyptian and Sudanese armies in military maneuvers under the name "Nile Eagles."
But at the time, some opponents considered Sisi's statements as a kind of domestic consumption to calm the mounting public anger towards the ambiguity of the Egyptian position.
According to previous statements by Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly, Egypt is one of the driest countries and the least permeable to renewable water resources, and is the highest among the countries in the world in terms of reliance on a single source of water, represented by the Nile River, which provides 98% of its water needs.
The share of the Egyptian citizen is only about 560 cubic meters of water annually, while the water poverty line is estimated at 1,000 cubic meters of water annually per person, according to the United Nations.
# Sisi: I say to all people, no one can take a point of Mai from # Egypt, and those who want to try try ... We do not threaten someone # Dam Al-Nahda pic.twitter.com/lcdTGFvjpB
- Al Jazeera Mubasher (@ajmubasher) March 30, 2021
The white flag
It is tantamount to raising the white flag and completely surrendering Ethiopia's decision to fill the dam and failing in the diplomatic battle to preserve Egypt's water rights. Thus, the deputy of the Foreign Affairs Committee in the former parliament, Dr. Gamal Heshmat, considered the statements of the Foreign Minister.
Heshmat - in his interview with Al-Jazeera Net - suggested that Shoukry's view is an indication of Cairo's acceptance of the pressure exerted on him not to escalate the dam crisis, adding that "the statement also aims to anesthetize the Egyptian people by lying to address the government's failure to preserve Egypt's wealth."
The former parliamentarian expressed his astonishment at the authority’s surrender to the dam’s reality without any reference to any military action, at a time when Cairo has bought billions of dollars in weapons over the past years through borrowing, which will incur the consequences for future generations.
That vision is also in agreement with former parliamentarian Ezz El-Din Al-Koumi, who saw in the Foreign Minister’s speech a declaration of Egypt's acquiescence in the face of Ethiopian intransigence.
Al-Kumi added to Al-Jazeera Net that the technical reports prove that the dam problem is chronic and not temporary, despite government efforts to mitigate risks, such as desalination of sea water and wastewater treatment.
As for what the officials said about the seriousness of the second filling of the dam, which followed Shukri's statements, Al-Kumi considered it a mere role distribution.
And he added, "If the parliament speaker was serious about talking about the danger of the dam, why did his parliament not discuss the principles agreement that Sisi signed with Ethiopia in 2015, according to which Egypt gave up its historical rights in the waters of the Nile?"
Do no harm
For his part, the economist Abd al-Nabi Abdul-Muttalib said that what the Minister of Foreign Affairs stated was a translation of the third principle of the Principles Agreement signed in 2015, which is the principle of non-harm.
In the event of a "significant" damage occurring to a country, it is necessary - according to the Declaration of Principles agreement - for the country causing this damage to take all appropriate measures, in coordination with the affected state, to mitigate or prevent this damage, and to discuss the issue of compensation whenever appropriate.
Abdul-Muttalib explained to Al-Jazeera Net that the principle, as it was contained, means the possibility of accepting little "irrelevant" harm, which made him see Shukri's recent statements unsurprisingly.
The economist does not rule out that Addis Ababa would use the statement of the Egyptian Foreign Minister to convince world public opinion that it would not harm its partners in the Blue Nile.
Despite this, Abdel-Muttalib does not consider Shukry's statements an indication of Cairo's acceptance of the reality that Addis Ababa is trying to impose.
Wrong timing
The timing of Sameh Shoukry's statements was not successful from the point of view of Ambassador Mohamed Morsi, the former assistant foreign minister, as it coincided with the acceleration of mediation steps to resume negotiations between the parties to the crisis.
Morsi added in a post on his Facebook account: "At such a time, statements that are flexible or willing to make concessions or carry more than one explanation should be avoided unless we are obliged to them, and I do not think we are obliged to do so now."
In terms of form, Morsi believed that the language of Shukri’s speech should have been more powerful and decisive, continuing, “And we have in the speech of President Sisi recently an example and a lesson, when he threatened with clear words and a body language that the eye of an expert could not mistake.”
Morsi asked the Foreign Minister to excuse, explaining that the matter is very complicated, and the opinion is not only limited to the foreign institution, and the opponent is stubborn, fierce and intransigent, pointing to the support of international players for the Ethiopian side for various reasons, which are all factors that make the mission of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs difficult.
Damage types
For his part, Professor of Geology and Water Resources at Cairo University, Abbas Sharaqi, confirmed that the second storage will not thirst Egypt or Sudan, but will cause other damages such as restricting water-consuming crops such as rice and bananas, as well as spending billions on seawater desalination projects and wastewater and industrial treatment. Lining canals and other projects to reduce water waste, as well as the consumption of a large part of Lake Nasser’s reserves behind the High Dam.
In a post on Facebook, the water expert emphasized that the damage is not a condition that it be water only, but there are many other serious damages, including the Ethiopian domination of the Nile rivers that come from Ethiopia, namely the Blue Nile, Atbara and Sobat, and to be alone in completing the filling in the coming years.
He added, "If Ethiopia stored even several billions in next July without an agreement, then what will the negotiation be in the future? Should it be on the third storage? Or on the fourth and last? Accepting the second storage without an agreement would have been easier to agree on the second filling only, as Ethiopia wanted, and both of them." unacceptable".
He stressed that the issue of the Renaissance Dam is "a defense of our dignity and our water rights and our right to advance notice and consult with us, not to violate previous historic agreements, and to implement international principles when establishing projects on international rivers, and that we only demand our rights with our usual pride and dignity, not in the manner of sympathy or weakness." Or begging. "