• The last elections before the 2022 presidential election will take place on June 20 and 27: the regional and departmental elections.

  • Monday is the deadline for submitting applications for the first round.

  • 20 Minutes toured the political landscape five weeks before these elections.

Already postponed due to a health crisis, the regional (and departmental) elections should this time take place on June 20 and 27.

Each camp has carefully prepared its weapons while it is the last election before the presidential election in April 2022. The parties still have a few hours to submit their lists, but we already know the overall landscape.

20 Minutes

takes stock.

Where is the union of the left?

It's a bit the Arlesian of these elections: the union of left parties, very divided since 2017 between socialists, rebellious and environmentalists.

The objective is above all to avoid the elimination of the left from the first round in certain regions where it has become very weak electorally.

In 2015, during the previous regional elections, to counter a possible victory of the National Front (today the National Assembly) the left was forced to withdraw between the two towers in Provence-Alpes-Côte-d'Azur (Paca) and especially in its old bastion of Hauts-de-France. There is no longer any elected or elected left in these two regional councils. This year, the union was made, rebellious to the socialists, in Hauts-de-France, with the ecologist Karima Delli as head of the list. This is almost the case in Paca, with the ecologist Jean-Laurent Félizia, but rebellious France has been excluded from this alliance.

Elsewhere in mainland France, you can find everything: from total disunity (most of the time, and particularly in Île-de-France, New Aquitaine or Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes) to alliances of variable geometry.

In Normandy, for example, the PS and EELV are allies against a list of communists and rebels.

In Pays-de-la-Loire, environmentalists and La France insoumise are behind a former Macronist deputy, Mathieu Orphelin, against a PS-PCF list led by Guillaume Garot.

What strategy for the majority?

The young party that is La République en Marche has difficulty with local elections, due to a lack of establishment. Last year, the municipal elections were overall very bad for the presidential majority. The few times that LREM has succeeded in electing municipal councilors, it was thanks to alliances with well-established left and right leavers.

At the regional level, an election that is more readable than the municipal ones, it is difficult not to bring the Macronian word at least to the first round, less than a year from the presidential election. Result: in all regions of mainland France there will be an LREM list in the first round. One exception: in Provence-Alpes-Côte-d'Azur. There, the risk of an election for the National Rally was deemed too great. After many twists and turns, around fifteen Macronist candidates will be present on the list of outgoing LR president, Renaud Muselier. A good opportunity also to stir up discord among Les Républicains.

Despite this, on the eve of the start of the regional campaign, the chances for LREM of winning even a regional presidency appear very low.

The latest national polls give only around 15% of the vote for the presidential majority.

It is in Pays-de-la-Loire (with François de Rugy), in New Aquitaine (with Minister MoDem Geneviève Darrieussecq) and in Brittany (a region long chaired by the influential Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian) that Macronist hopes of performing well are concentrated.

The traditional right in primary mode

Some personalities of the traditional right (The Republicans and his close allies) see in these regional elections a way of establishing themselves as a candidate of a right in need of a leader for the next presidential election: Xavier Bertrand, the outgoing president of Hauts-de -France, has already applied but Valérie Pecresse (president of Île-de-France) and even Laurent Wauquiez (president of Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes) are also thinking about it.

Before looking at 2022, the right, which holds six of the eleven regional presidencies of mainland France, has some hopes of victory in the Center and in Bourgogne-Franche-Comté, two regions narrowly lost in 2015. But above all, it can lose some feathers at the end of June: it can be threatened by the left in Pays-de-la-Loire and to a lesser extent in Île-de-France.

The outgoing right-wing presidents are also threatened by the National Rally in Hauts-de-France, where the scores of Xavier Bertrand and Sébastien Chenu (RN) are within the margin of error, and in Paca, Renaud Muselier is left behind by the RN Thierry Mariani.

The question of mergers in the second round with LREM will certainly arise but some, like Xavier Bertrand and Valérie Pecresse, have already closed the door to this type of alliance: difficult to forge an image of leader of the right for the presidential election ahead its survival to the macronists.

Is the National Rally well placed?

Marine Le Pen's party appears implicitly everywhere in the alliance strategies of its opponents. This is his great strength: ensuring that everyone must position themselves above all in relation to him. And also his great weakness: in the second round if the others are united, he is isolated. In 2015, this is what caused his loss when at the end of the first round the former National Front seemed well placed to win Hauts-de-France and Paca, even the Grand-Est.

In 2021, the far-right party will have to compare itself to its stunning 2015 result: almost 28% in the first round.

For the moment, no national poll has put the RN at this level.

In regional polls, Marine Le Pen's party appears to be stagnating at best.

However, it still seems very close to winning in Hauts-de-France and Provence-Alpes-Côte-d'Azur: the result of a more fragmented political landscape than in 2015 which could cause quadragulars or even pentagulars in the second round.

However, winning one or two regions is capital for the RN: less than a year before the presidential election they can become showcases for Marine Le Pen's campaign.

Elections

Guillaume Peltier, number 2 of LR, calls for the withdrawal of support for Renaud Muselier in Provence-Alpes-Côte-d'Azur

Elections

Laurent Wauquiez formalizes his candidacy in Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes

  • LREM

  • Elections

  • France rebellious

  • National gathering

  • The Republicans (France)

  • EELV

  • Regional elections

  • PS