Chinanews.com, Beijing, May 14th question: How will the escalated conflict between Palestine and Israel end?
Author Bo Wenwen
On May 14, local time, Israel threatened to "attach" to the Gaza Strip. Although it was subsequently denied, it undoubtedly escalated the Palestine-Israel conflict that had lasted for many days.
Why is the conflict between Palestine and Israel intensifying?
Will there be a "full-scale war" between the two sides?
How will the escalated conflict between Palestine and Israel end?
Dong Manyuan, an expert on Middle East issues and a researcher at the China Institute of International Studies, accepted an interview with a reporter from Chinanews.com to explain in detail the underlying causes and subsequent trends of the escalation of the Palestine-Israel conflict.
On May 14, local time, Israel continued to launch air strikes on the Gaza Strip, and the flames of bomb explosions illuminated the night sky.
Why is the conflict between Palestine and Israel intensifying?
Dong Manyuan sorted out that the Palestinian-Israeli conflict was "detonated" by three factors.
One is that Israel continues to forcibly occupy settlements and occupy Palestinian lands. The second is that the Israeli government refuses the Palestinians in East Jerusalem to participate in the Palestinian elections scheduled for this month. The third is that Israeli military police blocked the Palestinians from going to Aqah during the Islamic holy month of Ramadan. Sa Mosque fulfills the religious obligations of Muslims.
"In order to show support for the Palestinian people in East Yeh, Hamas (Palestinian Islamic Resistance) fired rockets into Israel, which incurred massive Israeli retaliation."
As for the underlying causes of the Palestine-Israeli conflict, Dong Manyuan pointed out that the two sides are still fighting over the ownership of the holy city of Jerusalem and the struggle surrounding Palestine's demand for the establishment of a fully sovereign Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital.
Dong Manyuan believes that the reasons for the continuous occupation of Palestinian land are, on the one hand, the blind favor and "backing" of the successive U.S. governments towards Israel; on the other hand, the fact that Palestine has been assigned in the struggle for legal rights and interests. The main faction of the Palestine Liberation Organization negotiating, one faction is Hamas, which rejects peace talks and advocates Islamic Jihad, cannot form a joint force, making the struggle of the Palestinian people full of twists and turns.
On May 12, local time, during the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, a building in Gaza was destroyed.
Will there be a "full-scale war" between the two sides?
On the 14th, the Israeli Defense Forces threatened to declare a "ground attack" on the Gaza Strip, which caused the international community to worry about "all-out war."
Dong Manyuan said in this judgment that the possibility of a full-scale war is extremely low.
"The reason is that the pace and initiative of the entire battlefield are now controlled by Israel." Dong Manyuan pointed out that Hamas's military strength is far inferior to Israel, and only Israel has the power to end this conflict.
"The reason why it is not over yet is because Israel has not achieved its political and military goals of retaliating against Hamas."
In less than two years, Israel has held four general elections, and Prime Minister Netanyahu’s four cabinet formations all failed.
Dong Manyuan said that the heavy blow to Hamas is for political purposes, because it will help Netanyahu to obtain more popular votes, which is expected to come back and form a cabinet in the fifth election.
In addition, the conflict also showed that Hamas has greatly improved its military capabilities. It not only has three mature long-range rockets, but also has a higher hit rate. The loss to Israel is greater than that of the 2014 Gaza War.
"The threat that Hamas poses to Israel has risen, so it is necessary to severely damage Hamas's military capabilities through this operation." Dong Manyuan said.
Dong Manyuan stated that Israel’s current combat goal is to “clearly remove” Hamas’ rocket development plant facilities, rocket technician teams, and senior military command teams as much as possible, and use indiscriminate bombing to weaken Hamas’ military strength. .
"I think the situation will escalate to a certain extent, because Israel's above-mentioned combat goals have not been achieved."
On May 12, local time, during the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, a Palestinian boy walked on a dusty street.
How will the escalated conflict between Palestine and Israel end?
The escalation of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has aroused serious concern in the international community.
UN Secretary-General Guterres called on Palestine and Israel to immediately stop the conflict. The UN Security Council will hold a public meeting on the 16th to discuss the conflict between Palestine and Israel.
China, the United States, Russia, France and others have also expressed their views and called for the restoration of peace.
What factors will influence the current situation?
How will the escalated conflict between Palestine and Israel end?
Dong Manyuan believes that an important factor is when Israel, which holds the initiative on the battlefield, will end. "Israel will end if it thinks that it has achieved its combat goals."
At the same time, attention should also be paid to the ceasefire mediation efforts of the international community.
Now the entire international community hopes that the Palestinian-Israeli situation will cool down so as to prevent more innocent people from being harmed.
"This situation will create moral pressure on Israel, and it will also affect Hamas' next determination."
Dong Manyuan also pointed out that, more importantly, this conflict will cause the international community to pay more attention to the Palestinian issue. "The process of attention will expose the United States' favoritism and double standards to Israel over the years, and it will also put moral pressure on the United States." Dong Manyuan said, "I believe that through the mediation efforts of the international community. , It will work in the end." (End)