The Gauls were afraid that the sky would fall on their heads. The Chinese are more like rockets. Where will the debris of the Chinese Long-March rocket fall this weekend?

Fall of a Chinese rocket: where will the debris fall?

The Long March 5B-Y2 rocket on April 29, 2021. VIA REUTERS - CHINA DAILY

Text by: Stéphane Lagarde Follow

5 mins

The Gauls were afraid that the sky would fall on their heads.

The Chinese are more like rockets.

Where will the debris of the Chinese Long-March rocket fall this weekend?

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From our correspondent in Beijing,

There is a piece of the Chinese rocket that is falling right now, uncontrollably towards Earth.

This is a big chunk since it is the main stage of the Long March 5B-Y2 rocket.

A machine that

we saw take off

on April 29 from the island of Hainan, in southern China.

A machine capable of climbing into orbit the cabin, the living space of the future Chinese space station.

The bottom stage of the rocket with the reactors, 30 meters long, 5 meters in diameter, weighing more than 20 tons and which is currently 270 km in orbit above our heads launched at 27,790 km / h .

We wait for him in the atmosphere on the night of May 8 to 9, so Sunday before noon at Beijing time.

What trajectory?

Scientists are watching this closely. The problem is, we don't know where it will land. It is impossible to know with precision which trajectory will take the wreckage of the rocket once it enters the atmosphere.

"This will be one of the largest landings of uncontrolled debris,"

warned the specialized site

Space News

. Most of the elements should melt. They will burn as they get closer to the surface, but there could be survivors…. Iron bars, titanium elements falling at hypersonic speed. It happened last year, in May 2020, in Côte d'Ivoire. Residents of N'Guessankro

thought they saw a huge lightning bolt

and in the village of Mahounou a large pipe 12 meters long also fell from the sky. A well identified metallic object. According to astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell of the Harvard Smithsonian center for astrophysics it was nothing more than debris

from the Long March rocket.

And for the takeoff from the Xichang base in western China, the village of Suining also in Hunan province also saw the debris fall, recalled in 2013

Liberation

So the concern is that we don't know where the trail of debris will fall this time around.

And the angle is quite wide: from New York, Madrid or Beijing in the north, to Santiago and Wellington in the south, and everything in between.

But there's also a lot of water, so there's a good chance it's in international waters.

This is what the Chinese Foreign Ministry recalled on Friday.

Beijing wants to be reassuring.

"The Chinese side is very concerned about the return of the rocket,"

said Wang Wenbin.

“

Most of the components will be destroyed during the re-entry process.
The likelihood of harming air and ground activities is extremely low,

the Chinese diplomacy spokesman said.
"

Competition in space ... and in words

These remarks came after statements by the US Secretary of Defense who somehow criticized China for not acting "

in a safe and thoughtful manner

" in space matters. There is a competition in space, but also in words between Washington and Beijing. In any case, this is what we measure by reading state propaganda. The

Global Times

immediately referred to a "

rumor

" spread by Westerners who would have fun scaring themselves, a little jealous also of Chinese space successes. He denounces "

the Western media hype around a Chinese threat

" and reiterates that the risks are minimal with the destruction of most of the elements when entering the atmosphere.

The entire trajectory of the rocket and its debris has been carefully studied, assures Wang Ya'nan, editor of the

Aerospace Knowledge

magazine

quoted by the subsidiary tabloid of

the People's Daily.

According to Song Zhongping, an aerospace expert in the columns of the

Global Times

again, the Long March rocket would even use a fuel

"respectful of the environment (...) which will not cause pollution if the debris falls into the ocean

".

However, with the acceleration of the Chinese space program, some are undoubtedly worried in several ways.

"The Chinese Communist Party has repeatedly shown blatant disregard for space security

, this time not even predicting where the body of the Long March 5 rocket might land, ”

writes Jim Cooper, a Democratic member of the US Congress quoted by the

South China Morning Post

The United States refuses to work with China in space exploration, an area considered strategic and military by Washington.

Joint programs between the Chinese and other countries are still rare.

One of the rare examples is that of the launch of a

Franco-Chinese satellite in 2018

In the meantime, Beijing continues its forced march to heaven despite criticism of security.

Eleven launches are planned over the next two years.

At this rate, China's Tianhe space station is expected to be operational by the end of 2022.

Fall of a Chinese rocket: where will the debris fall?

Fall of a Chinese rocket: where will the debris fall?

What trajectory?

Competition in space ... and in words

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