Nino Cartabellotta

  • Vaccines, millions of doses on the way.

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06 May 2021 All the numbers are down, but early signs of increased circulation of the virus are seen

The Gimbe Foundation notes this in the usual weekly monitoring referring to the week from 28 April to 4 May in which the reduction of new cases (-13.4%) and deaths (-19.9%) is confirmed.

The pressure on hospitals is still easing (-11.8% intensive care; -10.5% hospitalizations with symptoms), but there are early signs of increased circulation of the virus, including an increase in infections in school age.

In an Italy that is almost entirely yellow, Gimbe argues, individual behavior remains the fundamental weapon to stem the rise of infections.



Compared to the previous one, there is therefore a decrease in new cases (78.309 vs 90.449) and deaths (1.826 vs 2.279). Currently positive cases (413,889 vs 448,149), people in home isolation (393,290 vs 425,089), hospitalizations with symptoms (18,176 vs 20,312) and intensive care (2,423 vs 2,748) are also decreasing.



In detail, compared to the previous week, the following changes were recorded:


Deaths: 1,826 (-19.9%)


Intensive care: -325 (-11.8%)


Hospitalized with symptoms: -2,136 (-10.5%)


Isolation domiciliary: -31,799 (-7.5%)


New cases: 78,309 (-13.4%)


Currently positive cases: -34,260 (-7.6%).



"The slow descent of the new weekly cases continues - declares Nino Cartabellotta, President of the Foundation - even if early signs of increased circulation of the virus are glimpsed". First of all, the slight increase in the average Rt calculated by the Istituto Superiore di Sanità (ISS) on symptomatic cases which in the period 7-20 April is 0.85 (range 0.80-0.91) compared to 0.81 ( range 0.77-0.89) for the period March 31-April 13; secondly, as noted by the latest ISS bulletin, from the first half of April the rise of new cases in the 3-5 and 6-10 age brackets, a likely consequence of the resumption of school activities in the presence. Regional differences are minimal this week: increase in the percentage variation of new cases in 1 Region and of currently positive cases in 2 Regions.



"With the gradual decline in new cases - says Renata Gili, Head of Research on Health Services of the Gimbe Foundation - the pressure on hospitals continues to decrease, where the curves of beds occupied in the medical and intensive care area have continued to decline for 4 consecutive weeks. ".



In detail:


- Medical area: the curve reached its peak on 6 April (no. 29,337), with a decrease of 38% in 29 days. Bed occupancy by COVID patients remains above the 40% threshold in 2 Regions.


- Intensive care: the curve reached its peak on April 6 (No. 3,743), with a drop of 35.3% in 29 days; the 30% saturation threshold is still exceeded in 4 Regions.



"The number of new daily admissions to intensive care is also progressively decreasing - explains Marco Mosti, Operational Director of the Foundation - with a 7-day moving average of 135 admissions / day". 



On the vaccine front, Gimbe notes that one in four people are covered with at least one dose and over 70% of those over 80 have completed their cycle. More specifically, as of May 5, 25.5% of the population received at least one dose of vaccine (15,200,724) and 10.9% completed the vaccination cycle (6,522,822), with modest regional differences: from 28 , 2% of vaccinated with at least one dose from Liguria to 21.6% from Sicily. In the week April 26-May 2, compared to the previous one, there was an increase in administrations of 20% with a 7-day moving average that reaches 432,860 administrations / day (vs 361,326 on April 27).



"The gradual increase in deliveries - comments Gili - together with the available stocks would finally make it possible to keep the 500,000 doses per day constant, an objective reached for now only with the exploit of 29 and 30 April".



With regard to the targets set by Commissioner Figliuolo for the week of April 22-29, marked regional differences emerge: 9 Regions exceeded the assigned target, while 12 remained below the threshold. Over half of the over 60s received at least the first dose of the vaccine, with the autonomous provinces of Trento and Bolzano approaching 70%. However, if in the over 80 and 70-79 age groups the percentage of vaccinated with at least one dose is now high, the 60-69 age group, which "weighs" heavily on hospital admissions, still lags behind.



In detail:


Over 80: of the over 4.4 million, 3,134,089 (70.9%) completed the vaccination cycle and 778,130 (17.6%) received the first dose only.


Age range 70-79: of the over 5.9 million, 725,559 (12.2%) completed the vaccination course and 3,226,312 (54.1%) received the first dose only.


Age range 60-69: of the over 7.3 million, 680,900 (9.2%) completed the vaccination course and 2,078,360 (28.2%) received the first dose only.



Fragile subjects and their caregivers: 3,614,254 doses were administered, on which it is impossible to carry out further analyzes, because the total denominator and its regional distribution, nor the division between 1st and 2nd dose, is still unknown for this category.



"In the descending phase of the third wave - concludes Cartabellotta - an increase in cases of school age emerges, undoubtedly also influenced by screening and contact tracing activities. If the increase in new cases in the school population was expected, the political choice of resuming activities in the presence was not accompanied by new guidelines to contain the greater contagiousness of the English variant. In any case, in an Italy almost entirely yellow and with insufficient vaccination coverage to stem the circulation of the virus, it is essential to emphasize the importance of individual behaviors: distances, masks and open air must be the keywords for the coming months, together with the 'rush' for the vaccine as soon as one's turn comes ".