Local parliamentary elections will take place on May 6 in Scotland.

In the struggle for seats in Holyrood (this is the informal name is the legislative assembly of Scotland), 11 main parties and 14 more smaller parties are fighting, mainly voting at the regional level.

In the last elections held in 2016, 63 mandates out of 129 were won by the Scottish National Party (SNP), which stands for self-determination of the region.

The Conservatives won 31 seats, Labor 24, Greens six, and Liberal Democrats five.

Now at the heart of the political confrontation is the difference in the approaches of the parties to the possibility of holding a second referendum on the independence of Scotland, experts say.

It is this requirement that is the foundation of the SNP's political program - the party is in favor of holding a plebiscite at the end of the coronavirus pandemic, if the majority in parliament adheres to this position.

The opposite position is taken by the Conservative Party, which intends to oppose the initiative to hold a repeat vote.

The party also promises to focus on combating unemployment.

The same problem is at the heart of the Scottish Labor program, which pledges to fight for job security.

Also, Labor is promoting a social and environmental agenda.

Favorite of the race

The undisputed leader of the race is called SNP by opinion polls.

According to forecasts based on research conducted by Survation for The Sunday Post, the center-left could win 67 parliamentary seats in the elections.

The poll showed that during voting in constituencies, a party can receive 50% of the votes, and 35% according to regional party lists.

Conservatives can count on 21 and 20% of the vote, respectively, while Labor - on 21 and 22% of the vote.

Similar results were obtained by the sociological company YouGov.

Research has shown that SNP can count on 52% in district voting and 38% in regional party list voting.

Accordingly, the conservatives can collect 20 and 22%, and the laborists - 19 and 16%.

  • Scotland's First Minister and Scottish National Party (SNP) Leader Nicola Sturgeon and Edinburgh Central Party candidate Angus Robertson in Edinburgh, 4 May 2021

  • Reuters

  • © Jane Barlow

Even SNP opponents acknowledge her leadership ahead of the election.

As the leader of the Conservatives Douglas Ross said earlier, even taking second place would be "obviously important" for the party.

“For SNP, the Scottish Conservative Party is the strongest adversary: ​​over the past five years, people have seen that this is the case,” he told reporters.

It was the question of independence that became the subject of bitter public disputes between party leaders.

So, Douglas Ross accused during a televised debate of the SNP head and the current First Minister of Scotland, Nicola Sturge, that she was allegedly ready to hold a referendum bypassing the laws of the United Kingdom.

Sturgeon categorically rejected this assumption and accused her opponent of libel.

“I would not approve of an illegal referendum, at least because it will not ensure independence,” she said.

The politician stressed that she will approach this issue "responsibly" and will "collect arguments in favor of the cause of independence," which, in her opinion, "will be crowned with success thanks to the painstaking work to convince people throughout the country."

“Douglas, I understand that your campaign was probably not the most successful, but there is no need to start throwing mud and simply misinterpret my position and what I said earlier,” Sturgeon said in response to the accusations.

At the same time, the Laborites are trying to distance themselves from the topic of self-determination and focus on pressing socio-economic problems.

“I do not support the holding of a referendum.

I do not support independence and I want people to choose something else.

I want them to make a choice in favor of us focusing on the reconstruction of the country in the renewed composition of the parliament, ”said the leader of the Scottish Labor Party, Anas Sarvar.

At the same time, the forecasts of experts regarding the pre-election positions of the Scottish parties differ.

As the head of the department of social and political research at the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Vladimir Schweitzer, said in a comment to RT, in the context of the coronavirus pandemic, the issue of independence is irrelevant for Scottish voters.

“A politically unpromising scheme to call for an exit from the UK in the midst of a pandemic, while London is more or less successfully fighting the spread of the virus.

Such an appeal gives nothing in the electoral sense, given that now there are big socio-economic problems, ”the expert said.

According to Schweitzer, the SNP as a whole has weakened its position, since the idea of ​​secession from the UK is no longer enthusiastic among the population.

"Now there is a struggle for survival in a pandemic, this is more important than the struggle for independence," added Schweitzer.

  • Scottish Parliament

  • globallookpress.com

  • © Daniel Kalker / DPA

Natalya Eremina, professor of the Department of European Studies at the Faculty of International Relations, St. Petersburg State University, adheres to a slightly different point of view.

According to her, SNP is the favorite of the election campaign, since in many ways it expresses the mood of the population of Scotland.

“Compared to other parties, SNP pays a lot of attention to issues of social support and education.

In general, the party is in favor of maintaining interaction with the EU within the framework of the trade agreement reached between London and Brussels.

At the same time, Scotland will independently strengthen its position in the common market.

Scotland even has its own agenda for the Arctic, ”the interlocutor of RT explained.

According to Eremina, SNP adheres to the European vector of development, while many other Scottish parties associate the future with London.

"SNP has strengthened its position in connection with Brexit, now neither Labor nor Conservatives can press it as they did before," the expert is sure.

Self-determination question

The history of disputes over the status of Scotland stretches back to 1707, when the Scots signed a union with England and created a single state of Great Britain.

At the same time, Scotland retained the desire to expand its own independence.

Following a 1997 referendum, the Parliament of the United Kingdom passed an act that restored the Scottish Parliament.

Holyrood and the Scottish government are now quite empowered and can determine the policy of autonomy in a number of areas, with the exception of foreign policy and defense.

The next step, according to the Scottish nationalists from the SNP, should be the withdrawal of Scotland from the UK.

It was possible to get closer to the implementation of this idea after the victory of SNP led by Alex Salmond in the 2011 elections.

Then the party for the first time was able to form a one-party government.

  • Rally for the independence of Scotland in Edinburgh, 2018

  • Reuters

  • © Russell Cheyne

London agreed to hold a plebiscite, the vote took place on 18 September 2014.

However, most of the citizens voted against independence, and Scotland remained part of the United Kingdom.

However, the preponderance of the opponents of the exit was small - 55.3% versus 44.7%.

SNP did not give up on its main goal, despite the defeat in 2014.

At the end of 2019, Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon sent a formal request to the UK government for a repeat plebiscite on the independence of the region.

Edinburgh has also issued a special document entitled “Scotland's Right to Choose.

Putting Scotland's Future in Scotland's Hands ”(Scotland's Right to Choose. Putting Scotland's Future in Scotland's Hands), which explained the rationale and procedure for the future referendum.

However, the referendum must be approved not only by the Scottish Parliament, but also by the Cabinet of the United Kingdom.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson made it clear to Edinburgh that London does not support this initiative.

“You and your predecessor personally promised that the 2014 independence referendum would be a once-in-a-generation event,” Johnson recalled in response to a Scottish inquiry. 

According to Vladimir Schweitzer, SNP will not be able to achieve independence of Scotland even if it wins the elections.

“First of all, because of the position of the EU, which made it clear back in 2014 that an independent Scotland would have to re-enter the union.

This means that in a difficult period the Scots will be left without the support of London and Brussels at the same time.

It is unlikely that people will vote for this option, ”the expert said.

At the same time, Schweitzer believes that SNP will be able to retain a slight advantage in parliament in these elections.

Natalia Eremina adheres to a different point of view.

According to the expert, Edinburgh has a chance to persuade London to agree to a second plebiscite, but this issue will have to be postponed in any case due to the pandemic.

“This issue will be raised again in no less than three to five years.

During this time, the economy will accumulate such changes that will show that Scotland needs to expand its external relations.

It is possible that some processes in Scotland will link with similar processes in European countries.

Already, Scotland is quite capable of showing independence in many areas, and this trend will continue to grow.

But, of course, it will take time to convince London, ”concluded the expert.