[Restricted View of the World] Where is India's epidemic prevention in the "darkest hour"
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The Indian government's early relaxation of anti-epidemic measures and putting elections on top of epidemic prevention are the fundamental reasons for the worsening of the epidemic.
The epidemic has exposed the huge gap between Indian social classes and will seriously hinder economic recovery.
In the face of the pandemic, any slackness may lead the people into disaster.
Ning Shengnan
From March to April 2021, the second wave of new crown epidemics broke out in India.
Compared with the first wave of epidemics, this epidemic is highly infectious and highly pathogenic, and it is more likely to infect young people, and the severity of the epidemic is far greater than last year.
Since mid-April, as the number of confirmed cases in a single day has risen sharply, India seems to have entered the "darkest moment" of fighting the epidemic.
According to Indian official forecasts, the current round of the epidemic may reach its peak in mid-May, when the number of newly diagnosed cases will reach 500,000 daily.
However, research by the Indian Institute of Technology and the University of Michigan is more pessimistic. Both institutions believe that by mid-May, the number of newly confirmed cases in India will rise to 1 million in a single day.
Slack in epidemic prevention leads to evil consequences
The second wave of the epidemic is fierce. Although there is force majeure caused by the mutation of the virus, the fundamental reason is that the Indian government and society have relaxed their vigilance prematurely, relaxing or even abandoning control measures against the epidemic.
First of all, the Indian government hastily declared "successful in the war against the epidemic", causing the entire society to slack in epidemic prevention.
At the beginning of 2021, the epidemic situation in India improved for a while, and the number of new cases, deaths and infections in a single day steadily declined.
In January, Indian Prime Minister Modi could not wait to announce to the world at the World Economic Forum that "India has successfully contained the new crown epidemic."
The government's high-profile statement convinced the Indian people that they have escaped the epidemic. Many people no longer follow epidemic control measures such as wearing masks and maintaining social distancing. The whole society is filled with the joy of "breaking the virus."
Based on this recognition, when religious festivals such as Holi and Dahu Festival approach, the Modi government’s first response is not to strengthen epidemic prevention measures and reduce crowd gathering, but to encourage people to participate in festival celebrations and religious activities.
The people immediately responded to the prime minister's call, and millions of people flocked to the Ganges to "cleanse their sins and pain."
Facts have proved that what is spreading across the country is not happiness and prosperity, but the new crown virus.
It is after these large-scale gathering events that the number of newly diagnosed cases in India has risen sharply every day, and the epidemic has rapidly raged across the country.
What is even more controversial is that the Modi government puts the election campaign above the epidemic prevention and sacrifices the well-being of the people for the interests of one party.
Since March, the Indian states of Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and Pondicherry have held state assembly elections.
In order to consolidate the foundations of local governance, especially to seize the power of key states such as West Mon State and Tamil Nadu, the Modi government ignored the epidemic prevention work and frequently held large-scale election rallies in these areas.
At the election rally in West Mon State on April 16, Modiso took off his mask and said, "I have seen a huge crowd, and I have never seen such a large-scale rally."
After the outbreak, Modi was still busy with campaign activities: India had more than 200,000 new confirmed cases in a single day on April 14, but encouraging people to vote for the Indian Party has always been the main content of Modi’s Twitter; April 22, India The number of newly confirmed cases has exceeded 300,000. Modi’s Twitter still reminds the public to “don’t forget to vote in the sixth phase of the election in West Bengal”; on April 23, the worsening of the epidemic in India was already known to the world, Modi On the same day, he still participated in the online election rally in West Mon State and delivered a speech.
According to Bloomberg News, Chief Minister Udaf Thackeray of Maharashtra stated that he had tried to call Modi to report medical oxygen supply and drug shortages in the state, but was told that the prime minister was busy giving a rally speech.
Last year's anti-epidemic campaign did not make the Modi government "long memory", and the weak medical system has not improved at all.
When the second wave of the epidemic hit, people were surprised to find that India’s medical infrastructure is still outdated, basic anti-epidemic materials such as oxygen, hospital beds, etc. are still extremely scarce, the government’s ability to coordinate and deploy medical supplies is extremely poor, and the entire medical system is on the verge of collapse.
More ironically, Modi once boasted that the vaccine produced in India would "help mankind fight this crisis". Since January this year, he has been busy engaging in "vaccine diplomacy", but he has ignored his own serious vaccine reserves. Inadequate facts, vaccine reserves in New Delhi, Mumbai and other places are in desperation.
Where to go for epidemic prevention in the future
The epidemic has exposed a huge gap between the social classes in India: the living conditions of the lower classes are extremely poor, the sick families have no access to medical treatment, they cannot enjoy basic public medical services, and even the funeral of the dead has become a problem; The deep residences are tightly protected and even chartered flights overseas.
The disorderly governance of the Indian government has also been exposed.
Not only did the black market sell oxygen cylinders and hospital beds peddled in hospitals, there were frequent chaos, but also "oxygen battles" broke out among local governments.
Western media gave up the pursuit of India in the past and used "disaster" and "doomsday" to describe India's tragedy and criticized Modi's government for its ineffective fight against the epidemic.
Although Modi announced that all Indian citizens aged 18 and above can get the new crown vaccine, first, the vaccine is not enough. Second, the federal government only bears the cost of vaccination for people over 45 years old, and a large number of people between 18 and 45 years old are vaccinated. The purchase of vaccines is undertaken by the state governments, and vaccine manufacturers are allowed to set their own prices.
According to a Reuters report, the federal government decided not to import the new crown vaccine. Instead, the state governments and companies will arrange the import on their own.
It can be expected that without the overall planning, coordination and command of the decision-making center, the situation will inevitably fall into chaos.
Modi has maintained a high popularity since he took office in early 2014. Even the reckless waste of money, the hasty tax reform, and the economic downturn have not changed the popular support for him.
Now that the epidemic has returned, the Modi government’s governance failure has been fully exposed, and public accusations of its ineffective anti-epidemic have gradually emerged. The popular labels of "Modi stepping down" and "Modi creating disaster" have appeared on Indian social media for the first time.
Once the epidemic continues to worsen, the myth of the popularity of Modi and the Indian Party may be shattered.
On the economic front, the second wave of the epidemic is expected to seriously drag down the economic recovery.
India was severely hit by the epidemic last year, and its national economy shrank by nearly 10%.
At the beginning of the year, economic growth had just turned positive, and it was hit by the second wave of the epidemic. The original dream of "retaliatory growth of 12.5%" will most likely be vanished.
The prevention and control of the epidemic is critical to the lives of the people. For a country with a population of nearly 1.4 billion, the government's public decision-making should be prudent and consider the overall situation.
In the past, the Modi government always created a relaxed posture of "talking and laughing, and disappearing in smoke." He did not know that in the face of a pandemic, any slackness could bring its own people into disaster.
(Author's unit: Institute of Developing Countries, China Academy of International Studies)