The Lake Chad region was the scene, Tuesday, April 27, of a new jihadist attack in which twelve Chadian soldiers and forty attackers lost their lives. The fighting came as the country has experienced a political crisis since the death of President Idriss Déby on April 20. The head of state, in power for 30 years, has died in fighting against rebel groups, the army said. The Front for Alternation and Concord in Chad (Fact) launched an offensive on April 11, the day of the presidential election.

Chad is regularly attacked by rebel groups seeking to oust the power in place in N'Djamena. These insurgents had announced that they wanted to engage in a political dialogue on condition that Idriss Déby leaves his post as head of state. After his death, they rejected the Transitional Military Council (CMT) set up and headed by Mahamat Idriss Déby, the son of the late president.

At the same time as these disturbances, Chad is militarily engaged in the fight against the two factions of the jihadist group Boko Haram (the Islamic State group in West Africa, known by its English acronym, Iswap, and the Jamaat Ahl Al-Sunnah Lil Abubakar Shekau's Dawa Wal Jihad (JAS)) which is rampant in the Lake Chad region, a region in the west of the country, straddling Chad, Nigeria, Cameroon and Niger.

Vincent Foucher, CNRS researcher and Boko Haram specialist, takes stock of the jihadist threat in the region.

France 24: Can the current context in Chad, made up of political uncertainty and armed threat from rebel groups, have an impact on the activity of jihadist groups in the Lake Chad region?

Vincent Foucher:

Today, in Chad, the situation is indeed still uncertain.

A pause had been observed around the funeral of Idriss Déby but there was new fighting on Wednesday between the rebels of the Front for Alternation and Concord in Chad (Fact) and the Chadian army in the Kanem region [au north of N'Djamena].

>> Chad: the junta refuses to negotiate with the rebels despite calls for a ceasefire

As for the two factions of Boko Haram present on the islands and the shores of Lake Chad, they did not wait for the Fact attack and the death of Idriss Déby to attack Chad. The situation of uncertainty could encourage the jihadists to try blows on the Chadian side. The military system on the shores of Lake Chad is undoubtedly on the defensive and has been lightened. This is perhaps how one should read the successful attack on Tuesday against the small Chadian town of Litri, claimed by Iswap [acronym in English for Islamic State in West Africa, Editor's note] , the pro-Islamic State faction that emerged from Boko Haram.

But the two situations should not be mixed up, even if the Chadian authorities treat the Fact as a "terrorist" movement or evoke its presence in the Diffa region, in Niger, where Boko Haram factions are also present. There is no known link between Boko Haram and the Fact. The rebels do not have a jihadist position at all. Its leaders say they want to be, in the long term, normalized actors in Chadian political life. We must really be wary of the instrumentalization of the story of the jihadist threat by the Chadian authorities, not to mix everything up. With the Fact, a truly Chadian question arises, to which the Chadians must answer. Whereas Boko Haram is first and foremost a Nigerian issue.

Can the recent attacks by Chadian rebel groups distract Chadian soldiers from the fight against jihadist groups?

This is a possibility because the Chadian army does not have unlimited resources. Recently, we were waiting for a new entry of Chadian soldiers on Nigerian soil, to fight the factions of Boko Haram [Idriss Déby had decided to withdraw Chadian troops from Nigeria in January 2020 after nine months of presence in the country, Editor's note] . The Nigerian army indeed launched a major offensive earlier this year against the two factions of Boko Haram in Borno State (northeastern Nigeria). Cameroonian troops went to Borno to help the Nigerians and the participation of Chadian soldiers had been mentioned. President Buhari had traveled to N'Djamena to meet Idriss Déby, no doubt to talk about it. But given the current context in Chad,it is probable that this expected return of the Chadians will not take place, or not immediately.

At the same time, Idriss Déby had played a lot on his military engagement against the jihadists to maintain certain international support, notably, of course, from France. His son, who took over as head of the junta, the Transitional Military Council (CMT), signaled that Chadian troops would remain involved in Mali, and those troops effectively remained on the ground. Now, the situation in Chad is not closed. How is the transition really going to work? What decision will the transitional power make?

In a way, the most important contribution that Chad could make to the fight against jihadism in the sub-region would be to solve its problems, to confront its long history of political violence, to achieve a form of 'balanced.

We know that Chad's long history of violence has played a role in the development of Boko Haram.

This is not to say that the Chadian authorities supported Boko Haram - they did not do so - but we know that weapons and fighters from the Chadian conflicts were decisive in Boko Haram's transition to guerrilla warfare. , between 2009 and 2013.

What is the security situation in the Lake Chad region now?

The year 2020 has been a bad year.

We have seen an increase in the number of incidents and significant losses, in the Nigerian army in particular, but also many attacks in Cameroon and Niger.

This explains Nigeria's renewed offensive effort since the start of the year, and the replacement of the Nigerian army chiefs of staff.

This effort appears to have dealt real blows to Abubakar Shekau's faction, which operates from the Sambisa Forest in central Borno.

But the other faction, Iswap, seems to have held up well.

Its fighters have carried out several major attacks in recent weeks, often with success, such as in Mainok, Dikwa or Damasak.

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