Photos of the open-air cremation of the remains and the robbery of medical oxygen went viral on social media, and the news that “the epidemic in India was out of control” quickly spread across the world.
The American "Wall Street Journal" reported on April 25 that the spread of the new crown virus in India "spreads like wildfire."
This is indeed the case.
The data on new cases reported daily by the Indian Ministry of Health is still constantly setting new "global records".
The new crown virus has "indiscriminately" affected the relatives of the Indian Minister of Health, Prime Minister Modi, and US diplomats in India.
India’s medical system has almost collapsed, wards, medicines, and oxygen are in a hurry.
British Prime Minister Johnson and Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga successively cancelled their plans to visit India in late April.
More than a dozen countries have imposed restrictions on passengers from India.
The request for anti-epidemic material assistance from the Indian government is placed on the desks of leaders of many countries in the United States and Europe.
When analyzing this round of the new crown pneumonia epidemic in India, many medical and health experts and international media said that this was expected.
Although India has the titles of "World Pharmacy" and "World Vaccine Capital", it is also a populous country with a fragile health system and weaker surveillance capabilities.
Even though Prime Minister Modi has repeatedly claimed that India has overcome the epidemic, controversy over the serious under-statistics of India's real case data has persisted, and the warning that "India may plant an untimely bomb for the global victory over the epidemic" is endless.
Rather than saying that this wave of the epidemic in India was "suddenly out of control," it was the superimposed influence of multiple factors such as poor government prevention, rapid spread of mutated viruses, and weak medical infrastructure that prevented India from being able to escape the super-large-scale outbreak of the epidemic.
The "epidemic storm" did not strike suddenly
Based on statistics from the World Health Organization, Johns Hopkins University in the United States and the Ministry of Health of India, as early as the end of February this year, when the overall global number of new coronavirus cases continued to decline, the Indian epidemic has begun to rebound significantly, with new additions in a single week. The data index of cases has returned to the top five in the world.
After entering April, the number of new cases in a single day in India has almost risen sharply.
On April 22, India set a record for the highest number of new confirmed cases in a single day in other countries in the world with more than 314,000 newly diagnosed cases in a single day.
As of April 27, the number of newly confirmed cases in India in a single day has been higher than 300,000, and the number has continued to increase.
Indian Prime Minister Modi admitted on the 25th that "a storm of infection has shaken the country."
Unlike many European and American countries, India did not usher in the first wave of the epidemic until August and September last year, when more than 90,000 newly confirmed cases were reported in a single day.
Since then, the situation of the epidemic situation in India has eased for a while, and the number of new confirmed cases in a single day dropped to about 10,000 at the end of January and the beginning of February this year.
Modi said in a speech at the World Economic Forum in January, “Some people predict that India will be the country most affected by the new crown virus in the world, but today, India is one of the countries that have successfully saved the lives of its citizens.”
Modi’s BJP even claimed in a resolution that India has “defeated the new crown virus”.
Since then, the epidemic has ceased to be the focus of government attention.
The Modi government's "political arrogance" and "overconfidence" caused it to ignore the warnings of scientists and relax the epidemic prevention measures, which caused the people to gradually relax their vigilance and almost resumed normal life before the epidemic.
Rakesh Mishra, director of the Cell and Molecular Biology Center of the Indian Science and Industrial Research Council, analyzed that the main cause of the second wave of epidemics in India was the lack of public epidemic prevention, which did not strictly follow the epidemic prevention regulations such as wearing masks and maintaining social distance. .
The emergence and expansion of the mutated virus is considered to be another factor in the outbreak in India.
Among them, the "double mutation" mutant new coronavirus B.1.617 first discovered in India has been widely discussed by the media.
According to the bulletin issued by the Ministry of Health of India at the end of March, the "Indian New Coronavirus Genomics Alliance" composed of 10 national laboratories found a new mutant virus in samples collected in Maharashtra, carrying E484Q and L452R mutation may lead to immune escape and increased infectivity.
Data from the Global Influenza Shared Database shows that the database received sequencing results of B.1.617 samples as early as October 2020.
This means that in the months when the epidemic slowed down, the Indian government missed the opportunity to sequence the mutant virus.
India's epidemic may still be "severely underestimated"
Compared with the first wave of the epidemic last year, Giridar Babu, professor of epidemiology at the Public Health Foundation of India, believes that the current wave of epidemics is spreading faster and the proportion of young people infected has increased significantly.
Babu predicts that the national epidemic in India may not reach its peak until the end of May.
Sumia Swaminathan, the chief scientist of the World Health Organization, said in an interview with CNN on April 26 that the number of confirmed cases and deaths of new coronary pneumonia currently reported in India is "severely underestimated", and the actual number of infections It may be 20 to 30 times higher than the official report.
The well-known Indian virologist Dr. Jacob John also told Deutsche Welle that the registration system for patients who died from the new crown in India is very imperfect, the government cannot effectively count the epidemic data in rural areas, and the existing monitoring system cannot track deaths outside the hospital. Number of people.
More potential risk factors behind the out-of-control epidemic in India have gradually been exposed.
The Indian central government has not implemented a nationwide blockade as it did last year. Modi has made it clear that he will not implement the "closure order" again.
In addition to the lack of a unified prevention and control policy, there has even been mutual accusations between the federal government and the local government in Delhi, which has led to delays in the construction of the oxygen plant.
Similar coordination difficulties have also appeared in the links of oxygen transportation and medical supply, which has led to the phenomenon of "difficult to find a drug" in India.
India's progress in vaccinating the new crown vaccine is seriously lagging behind.
Modi initiated a plan to vaccinate 1.3 billion Indians against the new crown in January this year, but the latest statistics from the Ministry of Health of India as of April 28 show that India has received only about 147 million doses of vaccine so far, which is far from enough. "Hidden immunity".
What is more worrying is that economic collapse and social crisis may follow.
According to a Bloomberg report on April 25, since the beginning of this year, the Indian government has issued nearly 162 billion U.S. dollars in debt to stimulate the economy. The central bank has maintained its benchmark interest rate at a historically low level and can only rely on unconventional policy tools to maintain borrowing costs stable.
If more funds are needed to deal with the second wave of the epidemic, India may be forced to issue more debt, which will further put pressure on the stability of government bond yields.
The Indian economy is once again on the verge of imbalance, and the ensuing livelihood crisis and increased losses of small and medium-sized enterprises will bring greater risks of instability to Indian society.
India's epidemic affects not just the country
India is the second most populous country in the world.
As early as April last year, Michael Ryan, Executive Director of the WHO Health Emergencies Programme, warned that, in a sense, whether humanity can achieve a decisive victory against the epidemic will depend to a large extent on India's control of the virus. Ability.
After this round of the epidemic rebounded, World Health Organization Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus reiterated that “the situation in India is a sad reminder that the virus can be so raging”.
Another outbreak of the epidemic in India will have a major impact on the entire world.
From the perspective of the epidemic itself, analysts believe that there are at least two effects.
On the one hand, navigation between countries in the world has gradually resumed, and the loss of control of the epidemic in India has increased the pressure on countries to "import foreign defenses."
On the other hand, India’s current epidemic will affect multiple related industries, including global APIs. For example, India’s decision to postpone the export of new crown vaccines may also have a sustained impact on global vaccine supply.
Affected by this round of the epidemic in India, the international community’s assistance to India and the entry ban have been implemented simultaneously.
Many countries such as the United Kingdom and Singapore have imposed restrictions on the entry of passengers from India. Countries including China, Russia, and the United States have indicated that they will provide India with necessary anti-epidemic assistance.
Under such circumstances, some critics pointed out that the Modi government seems to have not returned to the correct path of fighting the epidemic.
According to Kyodo News Agency, when Modi had a telephone conversation with Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga on April 26, the focus of the discussion was not to fight the epidemic, but to re-emphasize the "four-sided mechanism" of the United States, Japan, India and Australia and the so-called "Indo-Pacific strategy".
Will the epidemic in India continue to get out of control?
Only when the Indian government faces up to the people's health and the early warnings of all parties, and changes the chaotic anti-epidemic strategy, can it be possible to reverse the epidemic situation.
Our newspaper, Beijing, April 28th
China Youth Daily · China Youth Daily reporter Ma Ziqian Source: China Youth Daily