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Why will a new round of epidemic break out in India?

　　As of 8 o'clock on the 26th local time, India had over 350,000 newly diagnosed cases in a single day. The number of new cases in India increased sharply for 5 consecutive days, once again becoming the country with the highest number of new cases in a single day in the world.

What is the situation of India's epidemic situation?

What impact will it have on global epidemic prevention and control?

　　"News 1+1" connected with Gao Zhan, a reporter from the General Station in India, and Wu Fan, director of the Shanghai Institute of Major Infectious Diseases and Biosafety, to pay attention to the "darkest week" under the new round of epidemic in India.

Newly diagnosed or over 500,000 cases in a single day. Why is this round of epidemic in India so rapid?

Headquarters reporter Gao Zhan:

I personally think that the most important point is that since the beginning of this year, India has gradually liberalized social and economic activities, which has caused a large number of people to flow, especially in the recent local election campaigns and religious festivals. The large-scale celebration in China caused a large gathering of people and contributed to the spread of the virus.

　　The "double mutant" virus newly discovered in India may also be more infectious.

Previously, the local people were paralyzed by the epidemic and failed to comply with the epidemic prevention regulations, which is also an important reason for this round of epidemic.

What are the transmission characteristics of the second wave of epidemics in India?

Headquarters reporter Gao Zhan:

Take Mumbai where I live as an example. In June last year, two-thirds of the confirmed cases in Mumbai came from slums. According to recent statistics conducted by the local government, there have been new confirmed cases in Mumbai in the past few months. Only 10% of them are from slums, and the remaining 90% are from other regions. This is a very big change from the characteristics of last year.

Local officials explained that this change is due to the fact that among the people who have recently been tested for the new crown virus, middle and high-income groups account for the majority, while the proportion of slum residents who are tested is relatively small.

　　In addition, such data does not mean that the anti-epidemic situation in the slums this year is very optimistic.

In addition, some people suspect that because the epidemic in the slums last year was very serious, many residents may have antibodies, so they have a stronger ability to resist this new wave of epidemics.

The epidemic prevention situation is severe, is it also breaking through the psychological barriers of the Indian people?

Headquarters reporter Gao Zhan:

I noticed in India that the mentality of the local people has changed to a certain extent after the outbreak of the new round of the epidemic.

One is panic. Because India’s medical system has almost collapsed, some residents have panic. For example, some mildly ill patients also ran into hospitals asking for hospitalization or oxygen inhalation. In some places in India, There have even been extreme cases where the family members of patients robbed hospital oxygen tanks.

　　The second is to pay attention to it. A more obvious example is wearing a mask.

Prior to this, due to the improvement in the data of newly confirmed cases, some people have developed blind optimism. Only about half of the people wearing masks on the street are, and after this new round of the epidemic, the current number of people on the street It has become much less than before. Everyone usually wears masks when they go out, which shows that the local residents are paying more attention to the epidemic again.

What measures has the Indian government taken to prevent and control the epidemic?

Headquarters reporter Gao Zhan:

At present, the Indian central government has not announced the implementation of a nationwide blockade like last year, but Indian states have also taken some restrictive measures. For example, Maharashtra, where Mumbai is located, has already been implemented. Enter the state of a national curfew.

　　The Indian government is also working to further increase the intensity and scope of vaccination. For example, from May 1st, India will lower the age limit for vaccinations against the new crown to over 18 years old.

By providing subsidies, the Indian government hopes to increase the production capacity of Indian vaccine manufacturers.

Why is this “big explosion” in India’s epidemic?

Wu Fan, Dean of Shanghai Institute of Major Infectious Diseases and Biosafety:

We all know that the spread of this epidemic in India is the result of many factors.

There are not only the causes of the virus itself, such as the ability to spread and cause disease, but also external environmental factors, including the influence of temperature, living conditions, and living environment.

But I think the most important reason should have a lot to do with the pattern of social interaction and population density in Indian society.

In addition, the premature relaxation of prevention and control policies is also an important reason.

So far, neither the number of vaccination doses in India nor the level of immunity achieved by the population after natural infection have been far from reaching the percentage required to build a herd immune barrier.

Therefore, the current outbreak has become a necessity.