China News Service, Beijing, April 25 (Reporter Xie Yiguan) "In 2020, in the face of the spread of the new crown epidemic, the severe recession of the world economy, and the continuous escalation of the US's suppression of the "triple shock", China's financial system has achieved "stability while progress" ." Zhang Xiaojing, director of the Institute of Finance of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said at the launch of the new book "China Financial Report 2020" and a high-level seminar on the 25th.
The Institute of Finance of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences officially released the "China Financial Report 2020: Financial Reform under the New Development Pattern".
Photo by Chinanews reporter Xie Yiguan
In Zhang Xiaojing's view, during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, my country’s economic and financial operations are still facing many challenges: First, the increase in macro-leverage ratio causes multiple risks, frequent defaults of local state-owned enterprises’ credit bonds, high risks of local government debt, and risks of bad debts in commercial banks. Second, China’s financial technology development is facing new challenges; third, abundant global liquidity poses new external shocks.
"In 2020, the leverage ratio of Chinese residents has surpassed that of Germany and Japan. This is a more dangerous signal. We should be alert to the debts of the residents." Li Yang, chairman of the National Finance and Development Laboratory of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and member of the Faculty of Education, also emphasized that most of the residents’ debt Related to the real estate market, this has strengthened the mutual spillover of residents’ debt risks and real estate market risks.
From an international perspective, “the biggest risk in international finance this year is the inflation caused by the US stimulus policy and the reverse flow of global capital that may be caused by inflation.” said Zhu Min, dean of the National Institute of Finance at Tsinghua University.
Zhao Jianying, President of China Social Sciences Publishing House, mentioned at the meeting, “China is currently at the historical intersection of two centenary goals, and the status of the financial system in the entire national economy is self-evident.” “Financial market Development is of great significance to a country's currency, and this significance is no less than the impact of economic aggregates." Zhang Liqing, director of the International Finance Research Center of Central University of Finance and Economics, also said.
Therefore, “the construction of a new development pattern puts forward new requirements for financial reform and development. Finance must serve the real economy as the foundation, and play a leading and supporting role in smoothing economic circulation, maintaining economic security, and promoting economic transformation.” Zhang Xiaojing believes that one is Promote the balanced development of finance, real estate and the real economy; the second is to coordinate development and security in the process of expanding financial opening; the third is to build a green financial system around the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.
In the outlook for the economic and financial situation in 2021, the new book predicts that "China's GDP growth rate will reach about 8% in 2021, showing a trend of'high before and low'; inflationary pressure is generally small; the macro leverage ratio will be stable Decrease; the RMB/USD exchange rate may show a two-way fluctuation pattern around the central level of 6.4-6.5."