The Chadian opposition denounced an "institutional coup" and called for "the establishment of a transition led by civilians (...) through an inclusive dialogue".
But, everywhere else, in the concert of nations, the establishment of a Transitional Military Council (CMT) headed by Mahamat Idriss Déby, on April 20, did not arouse any condemnation.
At 37 years old, the son of President Idriss Déby Itno, who died in fighting against rebel groups according to the army, takes on the office of "President of the Republic" and "Supreme Chief of the Armies".
A few hours after its formation, the Military Council suspended the Constitution, dissolved the National Assembly, ousted the government, instituted a curfew and closed the borders.
After a few days of hesitation, it was finally decided that "the members of the government in place remain for the moment in function to deal with the current affairs" and that the borders would be reopened, notes the International Crisis Group in a report. update released April 22.
Ensuring a democratic transition
Mahamat Idriss Déby's first task should therefore be to ensure a democratic transition to civil power.
The CMT said the handover would take place within 18 months.
But this deadline is far from reassuring the opposition parties.
They fear that the president of the Military Council will cling to power.
"Even if we are talking about 18 months, afterwards, people are capable of creating a rebellion in order to be able to prolong it. The president's son is almost as old as his father was when he took power […]. Mahamat Idriss Déby goes make another 30 years in power. These are our fears, "François Djékombé, president of the Sacred Union for the Republic party, told RFI.
🇹🇩 #Tchad The opposition always denounces a coup d'état and requests the opening of a dialogue.
► This is what she said during a meeting held the day after the announcement of the death of President #IdrissDeby.
🎧 Details @Aurelie_Bazzara #RFImatin 👇 pic.twitter.com/UQ7ikKEeBo
- RFI (@RFI) April 22, 2021
Fears that are not unfounded.
"In the charter that the CMT published, it is stated that this 18-month transition period can be extended once, by a majority of the members of the Transition Council. But it is the president who appoints them, so they do not 'will probably not have the opportunity to refuse the extension, "said Kelma Manatouma, Chadian researcher in social sciences at Paris-Nanterre University, contacted by France 24.
We learn in particular that the transition period of 18 months can be extended only once pic.twitter.com/GN2TDFuwbu
- Aurélie Bazzara-Kibangula (@Aurelie_Bazzara) April 21, 2021
Another concern of the population regarding the establishment of the CMT: the silence of the international community.
"There is a bewilderment of the Chadian population. Not only vis-à-vis the coup, but also vis-à-vis the international community which supports it without the slightest resistance", notes Roland Marchal, researcher at the Sciences Po International Research Center (Ceri), interviewed by France 24.
As soon as the creation of the Military Council was announced, the opposition parties, but also civil society organizations, denounced "an institutional coup" and demanded a return to constitutional order.
Several unions have called a strike and the opposition platform Wakit Tama called for demonstrations.
Containing tensions within the army
If Mahamat Idriss Déby has been appointed president of the Transitional Military Council, the fact that he succeeds his father after 30 years of unchallenged power could be a source of conflict within the army.
"The idea of an Itno dynasty is not something that is very accepted", including in the camp of Mahamat Idriss Déby, underlines Roland Marchal.
In a country where several ethnic groups live together, "the fact that it is still a Zaghawa [ethnic group of Idriss Déby Itno, Editor's note] [...] arouses some reluctance. The sharing of power within the military is a real issue and this state of fact will create some troubles ", estimates the researcher.
A sign of dissension within the army, a dissenting voice began to be heard.
General Idriss Mahamat Abderamane Diko told VOA Africa radio on Wednesday that there were now "two camps": on the one hand, "the republican army", which he claimed to be;
on the other hand, "a small friendly military circle" which wants "to leave the legal framework to perpetrate a small coup d'état".
Ensure security within the country and at the borders
The rebel groups, including the Front pour l 'alternation et la concorde au Tchad (FACT), which tried in mid-April to march on the Chadian capital, "will strengthen in the days to come", predicts Roland Marchal, before procrastinate: "The French are there and they will do everything to prevent them from approaching N'Djamena."
This is not the only source of insecurity in this country twice as large as France.
"The situation in the Lake Chad region is not stabilized, Boko Haram is still there," said Kelma Manatouma, adding that "in the north, the border with Libya is not secure".
To this must be added the conflict zones in which Idriss Déby's Chad was directly involved.
“The disappearance of Déby automatically creates a more uncertain situation in neighboring countries or areas, underlines Roland Marchal. The first region where this risks having very strong consequences is Darfur. little the parameters of the crisis. "
The situation in the Sahel and Nigeria could also be affected.
>> To read also: "After the death of President Déby, Chad and the Sahel in uncertainty"
Restore the economic situation
Another big challenge that Mahamat Idriss Déby will have to face, and not the least: the restoration of the economic situation of the country.
In 2014, a drop in oil prices led to an economic crisis and forced the state to lay off many civil servants.
Unemployment is still high since then and the lack of diversity in the economy limits job creation.
Chad still produces oil but fails to get good prices, according to Roland Marchal, who explains this by the poor quality of Chadian crude.
The researcher recalls that before his death, Idriss Déby "had just taken over the presidency of the G5 Sahel and obtained a loan from the African Development Bank".
According to him, this money has already been spent.
"The Chadian leaders will turn to their main international supporters and will say that they need money because the transition is expensive, that civil society must be calmed. Obviously, a good part of this money will end up on bank accounts in South Africa, perhaps even in France, "he laments.
And the researcher concludes: "There is little to hope for for the population. Mahamat is the son of his father and the people around him are the main acolytes of his father, so if he was concerned about the population, we would have known before. "
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