Will the hereditary dictatorship of the Kim Il-sung family continue forever? ② [Walking with reporter Ahn Jeong-sik in Pyongyang]

In the last article, we looked at the reasons why the hereditary dictatorship of the Kim Il-sung family cannot continue forever.

▶ Will the hereditary dictatorship of the Kim Il-sung family continue forever?

① [Walking with reporter Ahn Jeong-sik and Pyongyang] In

this article, we will look at who will take over the power of North Korea after the Kim Il-sung family's reign ends someday.

The end of the hereditary dictatorship means that the community of fate between Mr. Kim's family and the elite surrounding him will be destroyed, which means that a crack will arise within the existing power class.

The cracks in the power class can open the space of the civil revolution by relaxing the control system, but the fact that it is difficult for a civil revolution to occur in North Korea was examined in the previous article ('Is it possible in East Germany and North Korea, which collapsed by mass protests?').

If there is no possibility of a revolution from below, North Korean power after the Kim family is likely to be generated from above.

The rise of power from above means that the next power is created within the power class, and that the winner of the power struggle within the existing ruling coalition is highly likely to be chosen as the successor.

Romania, where forces deeply related to Caucescu take power

Let's look at the case of Romania, which was the most similar system to North Korea among Eastern European socialist countries. As we saw in the previous article ('Is it possible in East Germany and North Korea, which collapsed by mass protests?'), Romania was an underdeveloped country like North Korea among eastern socialist countries, and the people did not have democracy experience. After the power of Chausescu, a dynasty system similar to that of North Korea was added, and all power was concentrated on the individual Chausescu, and even the inheritance of the son was being discussed.

The collapse of the Caucescu regime in Romania was due to the wave of democratization in the Eastern Bloc in 1989, and the side that took power in Romania after Caucescu was the'saving front' force centered on Iliescu.

If so, was the'Salvation Front' a force that opposed Chow Sesscu? It's not like that. The real group of the'Salvation Front' were communists and soldiers who had a deep connection with the Chausescu regime. As the Chausescu regime collapsed due to mass protests, it would be reasonable for the forces associated with it to retire and the forces to build a new society to appear at the front of the regime, but the powers after Chow Sesscu were also regained by the forces that had deep ties with the Cau Sesscu regime. A strange situation has occurred.

Why did this happen? This is because in Romania there was no such thing as an opposition to Causescu. Like Dae-jung Kim and Young-sam Kim, there were no opposition politicians or powers that would lead the democratization movement and become the focal point of the new era.

The'Salvation Front' was able to take power, not because it represented the aspirations of the Romanian people for change, but because it made itself a leader during a power gap without organized opposition forces. Sadly, it was also true that these former communist figures were the only political elite group in Romania. They revised some of the most criticized policies of the Chausescu regime, but basically revived the old communist bureaucracy. The Romanian Revolution was a'pseudo revolution' and the revolution was a'kidnapping' That is why criticism comes out.

However, the Romanian people supported their rule.

In the May 1990 elections, the “Salvation Front” took up 66% of the parliament, and Iliescu won 85% of the vote, overwhelmingly elected president.

The Romanians, who had never experienced democracy, were not ready for democracy, and practically had no alternative.

Even if Mr. Kim's family collapses, there is a high possibility that his aides will seize power.

In North Korea, like Romania, it is difficult for a completely new force to emerge just because the Kim family's regime collapses.

This is because there are no opposition forces that can replace Kim's regime.

Power after the fall of the hereditary dictatorship of Mr. Kim's family is highly likely to be created within the existing ruling coalition.

As of 2021, major party figures such as Choi Ryong-hae (standing committee member of the Political Bureau, first vice chairman of the State Council), organization secretary, and propaganda secretary, or Lee Byung-cheol (standing committee member of the Political Bureau, vice-chairman of the Party Central Military Commission) or the general political bureau chief, general chief of staff, It is highly likely that some of the key figures in the military or security sector, such as the National Security Award, will come together and seize power.

There will be no resistance from North Koreans to this transfer of power.

This is because power is perceived by North Koreans as being shared by those in power, not from the people.

We would expect changes to occur compared to the past, but there will be little awareness as to whether such changes should be related to democratization.

This is because North Koreans have never experienced what democracy is.

In retrospect, democracy in our country was not suddenly acquired at any one moment.

Apart from the introduction of democracy as an institution, there had to be a lot of efforts such as the April 19 Revolution, the May 18 Gwangju Democratization Movement, and the June 10 Democratic Uprising, along with a long time before the awareness of democracy was raised among our people and it became a reality. .

Just because the hereditary regime of the Kim Il-sung family collapses, it is difficult for democracy to be introduced directly into North Korea.

In the end, people in power who promote reform and openness will appear.

The person who will take power immediately after the fall of Mr. Kim's regime will be one of the existing power groups, but it is difficult to predict at this time whether this powerful person will be a conservative hard-lined person or an advocate for reform and openness. This is because the ability to fight for power is important, such as military control and political abilities, but not the political disposition to seize power during the chaos when absolute power has disappeared.

However, if a conservative hard-liner takes power, the regime will likely not last long. Since the incumbent after Kim's family cannot claim the'Baekdu bloodline', which was the most legitimate element of North Korean power, they have to find other elements to propagate the legitimacy of power, which is bound to improve the quality of life of North Koreans. Reform and openness are essential. If the new incumbent fails to claim the legitimacy of the'Baekdu bloodline' and the conservative hard-line policy fails to improve the quality of life of the North Korean people, dissatisfaction will rise and other forces will likely face challenges in the near future.

Even if the conservative hard-line powers take power in the transitional period, it is highly likely that the person who promotes reform and openness will eventually become a new power person.In this sense, the person in power after the Kim family comes from the existing ruling coalition, but from the existing ruling coalition. You will be in a situation where you have no choice but to take a policy that is differentiated from the policies that have been implemented.