For the past week, Pakistan has been the scene of riots and violence which resulted in the death and kidnapping of several police officers.
At the center of these tensions: the call, by the Tehrik-e-Labbaik (TLP) party, for the dismissal of the French ambassador to Islamabad.
For eight months, this radical Islamist party, which is illustrated in its relentless fight against blasphemy, has been on a crusade against France after Emmanuel Macron defended the right to caricature in the name of freedom of expression.
For his part, Prime Minister Imran Khan seems to be blowing hot and cold.
The one who had first satisfied the TLP by taking a firm stand against the French president in October 2020 caused surprise on Wednesday by announcing the party's dissolution.
Tuesday, April 20, he seems to have returned to a phase of appeasement with the TLP by accepting that Parliament examine the motion to expel the French ambassador to Islamabad.
First scheduled for Tuesday, this vote was finally postponed to Friday.
"These changes of course on the part of Imran Khan show the government's difficulty in dealing with these religious Islamist groups", explains Georges Lefeuvre, researcher associated with IRIS and specialist in Pakistan, contacted by France 24. "He is torn between the pressure exerted by this party, which has a considerable capacity to bring the people to the streets, and the wish to maintain a good relationship with France. "
>> To read also: "In Pakistan, the Tehrik-e-Labbaik party at the center of anti-French demonstrations"
A first severe response against France
France had fueled the anger of the TLP in the fall of 2020, when Emmanuel Macron had defended "the right to caricature" in the name of freedom of expression, during the tribute paid to Samuel Paty, the teacher killed after showing satirical drawings of Muhammad in class.
A month earlier, the republication of representations of the prophet by the newspaper Charlie Hebdo had already ignited the powders.
Imran Khan had not hesitated then to embark on a verbal contest with the French president.
"By encouraging the spread of blasphemous cartoons, by targeting Islam and our prophet; by attacking Islam, without having any understanding of what it is, the president has attacked and hurt the feelings of millions of Muslims in Europe and in the world, "he lamented.
Between progressivism and religious radicalism
Since coming to power in 2018, Imran Khan has consistently flirted with religious extremists in the TLP.
However, during the elections, this former cricketer, often presented as a great seducer in the Pakistani press, displayed a young, dynamic and progressive image in the face of opponents entangled in corruption scandals.
Once Prime Minister, he immediately distinguished himself from his predecessor, Nawaz Sharif, by launching new projects.
Among them, the fight against corruption, an education reform or the defense of the environment.
On the religious level, on the other hand, Imran Khan had placed himself from the start in the continuity of his predecessors.
"Imran Khan discovered religion late in life, after a youth in the West and his sports career," explains Gilles Boquérat, associate researcher at the Foundation for Strategic Research, specializing in Pakistan.
"But he has always been radical on religious issues. His great role model is Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan."
On the question of blasphemy, he immediately posed as a defender of the constitutional law which punishes with the death penalty anyone responsible for this outrage.
Proof of his rigorous positions in matters of religion: his marriage in February 2018 with Bushra Maneka, his "spiritual advisor".
Today, it only appears in public fully veiled.
Images far removed from those which had made the headlines in 1995, during the wedding in great pomp of Imran Khan with the British Jemima Goldsmith, friend of Lady Diana.
"The activists have gone too far"
No wonder, then, that Imran Khan violently denounced the cartoons of the Prophet Muhammad.
An opportunity for him to strengthen his ultraconservative base in the country and to polish his image as a defender of the faith in the Muslim world.
"But TLP activists have certainly gone too far by kidnapping police officers, by blocking access to hospitals in large cities," said Gilles Boquérat.
"We had to regain control of the situation."
"We must remember that at the heart of this affair is the thorny question of blasphemy," insists Georges Lefeuvre.
"Imran Khan finds himself in a very delicate situation here. He must not deny the ideology of the group but show that he does not agree on the form."
This balancing act is all the more complex as the Pakistani state has, for decades, encouraged the ideology that drives the TLP, sometimes going so far as to push the population to sympathize with it.
"This radical Sufi movement had been very useful to Imran Khan in driving Nawaz Sharif out of power," recalls Gilles Boquérat.
The movement had in fact been able to gain ground little by little, winning 2.2 million votes in the legislative elections in this country which has more than 210 million inhabitants, mainly due to the deficit of the PML-N, the party of the former Prime Minister.
"Caring for your image internationally"
On the other hand, "Imran Khan is very embarrassed because this affair gives Pakistan a very bad image internationally," notes Gilles Boquérat.
"However, the country is in a complicated economic situation and requests for loans will not be successful as long as the country remains on the gray list of countries that finance terrorism."
According to the two specialists, the outcome of this crisis will be a return to the status quo.
"It seems unlikely that the French ambassador will be expelled. Pakistan can in no way afford to alienate France and the European Union," they explain together.
"On the other hand, we will certainly return to a compromise, supposes Gilles Boquérat. Perhaps the government will allow the TLP to be reborn in another form."
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